Sonja Vlaar
CONTRIBUTION IN ORIGINAL LANGUAGE
During the current global crisis, all eyes are on the daily death toll. But can we trust these statistics?
If you look at the daily number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK, the data doesn't show who actually died from Covid-19. The NHS data refer to patients who died in hospital in England and tested positive for COVID-19. Even if there was another pre-existing disease such as COPD or cancer, death is considered a Covid-19 death if someone has tested positive for Covid-19.
The National Statistics Office (ONS) publishes weekly deaths in which "COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate" and cases in which "COVID-19 is suspected but no formal diagnostic test has taken place".
This means that in the UK and around the world, a Covid-19 death is considered a person who either died after testing Covid-19 (not necessarily because of the virus) or "probably" had the virus.
Not every Covid 19 death is actually caused by Covid
Official figures say that “in March 2020, around 86% of COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales (ie with COVID-19 anywhere on the death certificate) governed COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death,” so the ONS.
But: "Of the deaths with COVID-19 in March 2020 there was at least one pre-existing illness in 91% of the cases," said the ONS.
Did these people actually die from Covid - or from their existing health conditions?
"Almost 10% of people over 80 will die in the next year," quoted the with the BBC Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter from the University of Cambridge "And the risk that you will die if you are infected with coronavirus is almost exactly the same."
"That doesn't mean there won't be additional deaths - but according to Sir David there will be a" significant overlap. "
"Many people who die of Covid would have died within a short time anyway," he was quoted further.
Health risks from blocking
The with the BBC also quoted Prof. Robert Dingwall of Nottingham Trent University, who said that there are certainly "collateral damage" from other factors such as "mental health problems and suicides related to self-isolation, heart problems due to lack of activity and the effects of increased unemployment on health" will and reduced standard of living. "
Picture: Pixabay
This question arises almost everywhere ...
Is the authorities' approach proportionate?
And it is answered - to stay in Europe - by countries such as Sweden and Denmark completely differently.
However, as long as so little was known about the virus - infection, spread, healing options - as was the case at the beginning of March - the authorities only had to try to avoid the most important mistakes (exclude hospitals as an infection multiplier) and rely on the majority of the respective local experts !