Ingabe izilwane, izitshalo kanye nesikhunta zingavumelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu?

ngu-Anja Marie Westram

Izilwane ezizingelayo zizivikela ezilwaneni ezizidlayo ngokusebenzisa imibala efihlakele. Izinhlanzi zingahamba ngokushesha emanzini ngenxa yokuma kwazo okude. Izitshalo zisebenzisa amakha ukuze zihehe izinambuzane ezithutha impova: ukujwayela kwezidalwa eziphilayo endaweni yazo kukhona yonke indawo. Ukuzijwayeza okunjalo kunqunywa ezakhini zofuzo zomzimba futhi kuvela ngezinqubo zokuziphendukela kwemvelo ezizukulwaneni ngezizukulwane - ngokungafani nokuziphatha okuningi, ngokwesibonelo, azithonywa ngokuzenzakalelayo indawo ezungezile phakathi nokuphila. Ngakho-ke indawo eshintsha ngokushesha iholela “ekungalawuleni kahle”. I-Physiology, umbala noma isakhiwo somzimba asisajwayelaniswa nemvelo, ukuze ukukhiqiza nokusinda kube nzima kakhulu, usayizi wabantu uyancipha futhi inani labantu lingafa.

Ukwanda okwenziwe abantu kwamagesi abamba ukushisa emkhathini kushintsha indawo ezungezile ngezindlela eziningi. Ingabe lokhu kusho ukuthi abantu abaningi abasakwazi ukuzivumelanisa nezimo futhi bazoshabalala? Noma ingabe izidalwa eziphilayo nazo zingakwazi ukuzivumelanisa nalezi zinguquko? Ngakho-ke, phakathi nezizukulwane ezimbalwa, ingabe izilwane, izitshalo kanye nesikhunta zizovela ezikwazi kangcono ukubhekana nazo, isibonelo, ukushisa, isomiso, i-acidity yolwandle noma ukumbozwa kweqhwa okuncishisiwe kwamanzi futhi ngakho-ke kungasinda kahle ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu?

Izinhlobo zezilwane zilandela isimo sezulu esezivele zajwayelana naso futhi ziyashabalala endaweni

Eqinisweni, ukuhlola kwaselabhorethri kubonise ukuthi inani labantu bezinye izinhlobo zezilwane lingakwazi ukuzivumelanisa nezimo ezishintshayo: ocwaningweni lwase-Vetmeduni Vienna, isibonelo, izimpukane zezithelo zizalela amaqanda amaningi kakhulu ngemva nje kwezizukulwane eziyi-100 (hhayi isikhathi eside, njengoba izimpukane zezithelo zizala. ngokushesha) ngaphansi kwamazinga okushisa afudumele futhi babeshintshe imetabolism yabo (Barghi et al., 2019). Kokunye ukuhlola, izimbaza zikwazile ukuzivumelanisa namanzi ane-acidic eyengeziwe (Bitter et al., 2019). Futhi ibukeka kanjani emvelweni? Lapho, futhi, ezinye izizwe zibonisa ubufakazi bokujwayela izimo zezulu ezishintshayo. Umbiko we-Working Group II ye-IPCC (I-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) ufingqa le miphumela futhi ugcizelela ukuthi la maphethini atholakala ikakhulukazi ezinambuzaneni, isibonelo, eziqala "ikhefu lazo lasebusika" kamuva njengendlela yokujwayela ihlobo elide (Pörtner et al., 2022).

Ngeshwa, izifundo zesayensi ziya ngokuya ziphakamisa ukuthi ukuzijwayeza (okwanele) kokuziphendukela kwemvelo kunhlekelele yesimo sezulu kungenzeka kube okuhlukile kunokuba umthetho. Izindawo zokusabalalisa zezinhlobo eziningi zezilwane zishintshela ezindaweni eziphakeme noma eziphondweni, njengoba kuphinde kwafingqwa embikweni we-IPCC (Pörtner et al., 2022). Ngakho-ke lezi zinhlobo "zilandela" isimo sezulu esezivele zijwayele. Izibalo zabantu zasendaweni emaphethelweni afudumele obubanzi ngokuvamile azivumelani nezimo kodwa ziyafuduka noma ziyafa. Ucwaningo lukhombisa, ngokwesibonelo, ukuthi ama-47% ezilwane nezitshalo ezingama-976 ezihlaziywe (kamuva) anezibalo zabantu abangasekho emaphethelweni afudumele ohla (Wiens, 2016). Izinhlobo lapho ukushintshwa okwanele endaweni yokusabalalisa kungenzeki - isibonelo ngoba ukusatshalaliswa kwazo kunqunyelwe emachibini ngamanye noma eziqhingini - nazo zingafa ngokuphelele. Enye yezinhlobo zokuqala okufakazelwe ukuthi zashabalala ngenxa yesimo sezulu esibucayi igundane elinomsila we-Bramble Cay: latholakala kuphela esiqhingini esincane eGreat Barrier Reef futhi alikwazanga ukugwema izikhukhula eziphindaphindiwe kanye noshintsho lwezitshalo ezihlobene nesimo sezulu. (Waller et al., 2017).

Ezinhlotsheni eziningi zezilwane, ukujwayela okwanele akwenzeki

Zingaki izinhlobo zezilwane ezizokwazi ukuzivumelanisa ngokwanele nokwanda kokufudumala kwembulunga kanye ne-acidification yolwandle nokuthi zingaki ezizoshabalala (endaweni) azikwazi ukubikezelwa ngokunembile. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izibikezelo zesimo sezulu ngokwazo zingaphansi kokungaqiniseki futhi ngokuvamile azikwazi ukwenziwa ngezinga elincane ngokwanele. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuze enze isibikezelo ngenani labantu noma uhlobo lwezilwane, umuntu kuzodingeka alinganise ukuhlukahluka kofuzo okuhambisana nokuvumelana nesimo sezulu - futhi lokhu kunzima ngisho nokulandelana kwe-DNA ebizayo noma ukuhlolwa okuyinkimbinkimbi. Kodwa-ke, siyazi ngesayensi yokuziphendukela kwemvelo ukuthi ukuzivumelanisa nezimo okwanele akunakwenzeka kubantu abaningi:

• Ukuzijwayeza ngokushesha kudinga ukuhlukahluka kofuzo. Mayelana nenhlekelele yesimo sezulu, ukuhlukahluka kwezakhi zofuzo kusho ukuthi abantu abathile emphakathini wokuqala, ngokwesibonelo, babhekana ngendlela ehlukile nezinga lokushisa eliphakeme ngenxa yokuhluka kofuzo. Kuphela uma lokhu kwehlukahlukana kukhona lapho abantu abajwayele ukujwayela ukufudumala bayanda emphakathini ngesikhathi sokufudumala. Ukuhlukahluka kwezakhi zofuzo kuncike ezintweni eziningi - isibonelo ubukhulu besibalo sabantu. Izinhlobo zezinhlobo zazo zemvelo ezihlanganisa izindawo zokuhlala ezihlukene ngokwesimo sezulu zinenzuzo: izakhi zofuzo ezivela kubantu asezijwayele kakade "zingathuthelwa" ziye ezindaweni ezifudumele futhi zisize abantu abajwayele ukubanda baphile. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lapho ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuholela ezimeni lapho kungekho khona inani labantu bezinhlobo zezilwane okwamanje, ngokuvamile akubikho ukuhlukahluka kofuzo okwanele okuwusizo - yilokhu okwenzekayo enkingeni yesimo sezulu, ikakhulukazi emaphethelweni afudumele ezindawo zokusabalalisa () Pörtner et al., 2022).
• Ukuzivumelanisa nemvelo kuyinkimbinkimbi. Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu ngokwako kuvame ukubeka izidingo eziningi (ukushintsha kwezinga lokushisa, imvula, imvamisa yeziphepho, ukumbozwa kweqhwa…). Kukhona futhi nemiphumela engaqondile: isimo sezulu siphinde sithinte ezinye izinhlobo ze-ecosystem, isibonelo ekutholakaleni kwezitshalo zefolishi noma inani lezilwane ezidla ezinye. Isibonelo, izinhlobo eziningi zezihlahla azigcini nje ngokuvezwa isomiso esikhulu, kodwa futhi namabhungane amaningi amagxolo, njengoba lezi zokugcina zizuza ekufudumeni futhi zikhiqize izizukulwane eziningi ngonyaka. Izihlahla esezivele zibuthakathaka zifakwa ngaphansi kwengcindezi eyengeziwe. E-Austria, ngokwesibonelo, lokhu kuthinta isihlahla sonwele saseYurophu (Netherer et al., 2019). Uma izinkinga zesimo sezulu ziveza izinselelo ezihlukene, mancane amathuba okuthi ukuzijwayeza kube yimpumelelo.
• Isimo sezulu sishintsha ngokushesha ngenxa yethonya labantu. Izinguquko eziningi esizibona emvelweni ziye zavela ezinkulungwaneni noma ezigidini zezizukulwane - isimo sezulu, ngakolunye uhlangothi, okwamanje sishintsha kakhulu phakathi namashumi ambalwa eminyaka. Ezinhlotsheni ezinesikhathi esifushane sesizukulwane (okungukuthi zizala ngokushesha), ukuziphendukela kwemvelo kwenzeka ngokushesha. Lokhu kungachaza ngokwengxenye ukuthi kungani ukuzivumelanisa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu se-anthropogenic kuvame ukutholakala ezinambuzaneni. Ngokuphambene, izinhlobo ezinkulu, ezikhula kancane, njengezihlahla, ngokuvamile kuthatha iminyaka eminingi ukuzala. Lokhu kwenza kube nzima kakhulu ukuhambisana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.
• Ukuzivumelanisa nezimo akusho ukusinda. Abantu kungenzeka ukuthi baye bazivumelanisa nezimo zezulu ngokwezinga elithile - ngokwesibonelo, bangasinda kangcono kumagagasi okushisa namuhla kunangaphambi koguquko lwezimboni - ngaphandle kokuthi lezi zimo zikwazi ukumelana nokufudumala okungu-1,5, 2 noma 3°C esikhathini eside. Ukwengeza, kubalulekile ukuthi ukuziphendukela kwemvelo kuhlale kusho ukuthi abantu abangajwayekile kahle banezingane ezimbalwa noma bafe ngaphandle kwenzalo. Uma lokhu kuthinta abantu abaningi kakhulu, abasindile bangase bazijwayeze kangcono - kodwa inani labantu lisengase linciphe kakhulu kangangokuthi lizofa ngokushesha noma kamuva.
• Ezinye izinguquko zemvelo azikuvumeli ukulungiswa okusheshayo. Lapho indawo yokuhlala ishintsha ngokuyisisekelo, ukuzivumelanisa nezimo akunakwenzeka. Izinhlanzi eziningi azikwazi ukujwayela ukuphila echibini elomile, futhi izilwane zasemhlabeni azikwazi ukuphila uma indawo yazo igcwele amanzi.
• Inkinga yesimo sezulu imane ingenye yezinsongo ezimbalwa. Ukuzivumelanisa nezimo kuba nzima kakhulu uma inani labantu liba lincane, indawo yokuhlala ihlukana kakhulu, futhi kwenzeka izinguquko eziningi zemvelo ngesikhathi esisodwa (bheka ngenhla). Abantu benza izinqubo zokuzivumelanisa nezimo zibe nzima nakakhulu ngokuzingela, ukucekelwa phansi kwezindawo zokuhlala kanye nokungcoliswa kwemvelo.

Yini engenziwa ngokushabalala?

Yini engenziwa uma lingekho ithemba lokuthi izinhlobo eziningi zezinto eziphilayo ziyozivumelanisa nezimo ngokuphumelelayo? Ukushabalala kwenani labantu basendaweni ngeke kugwemeke - kodwa okungenani izinyathelo ezihlukahlukene zingamelana nokulahlekelwa kwazo zonke izinhlobo zezilwane kanye nokuncipha kwezindawo ezisatshalaliswayo (Pörtner et al., 2022). Izindawo ezivikelwe zibalulekile ukuze kulondolozwe izinhlobo lapho zijwayeleke kahle futhi kugcinwe izinhlobonhlobo zofuzo ezikhona. Kubalulekile futhi ukuxhumanisa imiphakathi ehlukene yohlobo oluthile ukuze izinhlobo zofuzo eziguquguqukayo zisakaze kalula. Ngale njongo, kwakhiwa “amaphasishi” emvelo axhumanisa izindawo zokuhlala ezifanele. Lokhu kungaba uthango oluxhuma izitendi ezahlukene zezihlahla noma izindawo ezivikelekile endaweni yokulima. Indlela yokuthutha abantu ngenkuthalo besuka kubantu abasengozini besiya ezindaweni (isb. ezindaweni eziphakeme noma ezindaweni eziphakeme) lapho bejwayeleke kangcono khona iphikisana kakhulu.

Nokho, imiphumela yazo zonke lezi zinyathelo ayikwazi ukulinganiswa ngokunembile. Nakuba zingasiza ukugcina abantu ngabanye kanye nazo zonke izinhlobo zezilwane, uhlobo ngalunye lusabela ngendlela ehlukile ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu. Ububanzi bushintsha ngezindlela ezahlukene futhi izinhlobo zihlangana ngezinhlanganisela ezintsha. Ukusebenzelana okunjengamaketango okudla kungashintsha ngokuyisisekelo nangokungalindelekile. Indlela engcono kakhulu yokulondoloza izinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo kanye nezinzuzo zayo ezibalulekile esintwini lapho sibhekene nenkinga yesimo sezulu kusewukulwa ngempumelelo nangokushesha nenhlekelele yesimo sezulu ngokwayo.

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Netherer, S., Panassiti, B., Pennerstorfer, J., & Matthews, B. (2019). Isomiso esinamandla singumshayeli obalulekile wokuhlasela kwebhungane lamagxolo ezindaweni zespruce zase-Austrian Norway. I-Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 2. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2019.00039

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