Ingxelo yokungalingani ngo-2023: Irhafu yobutyebi kubantu abazizityebi ngokuthanda ukuziqhelanisa nemozulu

Kuyaziwa ukuba abantu abanemivuzo ephantsi babangela ukukhutshwa kwegesi ye-greenhouse embalwa kunabantu abafumana imivuzo ephezulu. Oku kungalingani kuyaqhubeka nokukhula, njengoko ingxelo yamva nje yengcali yezoqoqosho uLucas Chancel yeWorld Inequality Lab ibonisa. Eli ziko lizinze kwiSikolo sezoQoqosho saseParis, kukho ingcali yezoqoqosho uThomas Piketty ("Ikomkhulu kwiNkulungwane yama-21") kwisikhundla esiphezulu.

NgokweNgxelo yokungalingani kweMozulu yowama-20231, esona siqingatha sihluphekayo sabemi behlabathi sinoxanduva lwe-11,5% kuphela yezinto ezikhutshwayo zehlabathi, ngelixa i-10% ephezulu ibangela phantse isiqingatha sezinto ezikhutshwayo, i-48%. Ipesenti ezi-16,9 eziphezulu zijongene ne-XNUMX% yezinto ezikhutshwayo.

Umahluko uye ucace ngakumbi ukuba ujonga kwi-capita ekhutshwayo yamaqela ahlukeneyo emivuzo. Ukuze kufikelelwe kwithagethi ye-1,5 ° C, wonke ummi: kwihlabathi kufuneka abangele kuphela iitoni ezi-2050 ze-CO1,9 ngonyaka ngo-2. Enyanisweni, abona bantu bahluphekayo bangama-50% abantu behlabathi bahlala bengaphantsi kakhulu komyinge we-1,4 yeetoni ngomntu ngamnye, ngelixa i-101% ephezulu idlula loo mda ngama-50 amaxesha kwi-XNUMX yeetoni ngomntu ngamnye.

Ukusukela ngo-1990 ukuya ku-2019 (unyaka ongaphambi kobhubhani we-Covid-19), ukukhutshwa komzi ukusuka kwesona siqingatha sihluphekayo sabemi behlabathi kunyuke ukusuka kumndilili we-1,1 ukuya kwi-1,4 yeetoni zeCO2e. Izinto ezikhutshwayo ezivela kwipesenti ezi-80 eziphezulu ziye zanda ukusuka kwi-101 ukuya kwi-XNUMX yeetoni kumntu ngamnye ngelo xesha. Ukukhutshwa kwamanye amaqela kusahleli kufana.

Isabelo sesona siqingatha sihluphekayo kukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo sisonke sinyuke ukusuka kwi-9,4% ukuya kwi-11,5%, isabelo sesona siqingatha sityebileyo sisuka kwi-13,7% saya kutsho kwi-16,9%.

EYurophu, ukukhutshwa komntu ngamnye kuye kwehle ukusuka ngo-1990 ukuya ku-2019. Kodwa ukujonga amaqela engeniso kubonisa ukuba ukukhutshwa kweyona siqingatha sihlwempuzekileyo kunye ne-40 yepesenti nganye yehle malunga ne-30%, ukukhutshwa kweepesenti eziphezulu ze-10 kuphela nge-16,7% kunye ne-1,7 ekhulwini kuphela. . Ngoko inkqubela phambili ibe ikakhulu kwinkcitho yemivuzo ephantsi nephakathi. Oku kunokuchazwa, phakathi kwezinye izinto, kukuba le ngeniso ayikhange inyuke ngokwenyani ukusuka ku-1990 ukuya ku-2019.

Ukuba ngowe-1990 ukungalingani kwehlabathi ngokubanzi kwaphawulwa ngumahluko phakathi kwamazwe ahlwempuzekileyo natyebileyo, namhlanje ngokuyintloko kubangelwa ngumahluko phakathi kwamahlwempu nezityebi kumazwe. Iiklasi zezityebi kunye nezityebi kakhulu ziye zavela kumazwe anengeniso ephantsi kunye nephakathi. KwiMpuma yeAsia, i-10 pesenti ephezulu ibangela ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo ngakumbi kunaseYurophu, kodwa ezantsi ngama-50 ekhulwini ngaphantsi kakhulu. Kwimimandla emininzi yehlabathi, isiqingatha esihlwempuzekileyo sezinto ezikhutshwayo ngomntu ngamnye sikufutshane okanye ngaphantsi komda we-1,9 yeetoni ngonyaka, ngaphandle kwaseMntla Melika, eYurophu naseRashiya/kuMbindi Asia.

Kwangaxeshanye, abona bahlwempuzekileyo bachaphazeleka ngakumbi yimiphumo yokutshintsha kwemozulu. Isithathu kwikota yelahleko yengeniso evela kwimbalela, izikhukula, imililo yamadlelo, iinkanyamba njalo njalo zibethe isiqingatha sabantu abahluphekayo behlabathi, ngelixa abona bazizityebi be-10% befumana i-3% kuphela yelahleko yengeniso.

Esona siqingatha sihluphekayo sabemi siphethe i-2% kuphela yobutyebi behlabathi. Ngoko ke baneendlela ezincinane kakhulu abanazo zokuzikhusela kwimiphumo yokutshintsha kwemozulu. Abazizityebi be-10% bane-76% yobutyebi, ngoko banamathuba amaninzi okukhethwa kukho.

Kwiingingqi ezininzi ezinengeniso ephantsi, utshintsho lwemozulu lunciphise imveliso yezolimo ngama-30%. Abantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-780 ngoku basemngciphekweni wezikhukhula ezimandla kunye nentlupheko. Amazwe amaninzi kuMzantsi weHlabathi ngoku ahlwempuzeke kakhulu kunokuba ebeya kuba njalo ngaphandle kokutshintsha kwemozulu. Amazwe amaninzi akwiitropikhi kunye neetropikhi anokufumana ilahleko yengeniso engaphezu kwama-80% ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane.

Impembelelo enokubakho yokuncitshiswa kwentlupheko ekukhutshweni kwerhasi yegreenhouse

Phezulu kwiiNjongo zoPhuhliso oluZinzileyo ze-UN (SDGs2) ngo-2030 umele ukupheliswa kwentlupheko nendlala. Ngaba ukuphelisa intlupheko yehlabathi kungabeka uxinzelelo olubonakalayo kuhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwe-CO2 olusafumanekayo kuthi ukuze sifezekise iinjongo zemozulu yaseParis? Uphononongo lubonisa izibalo zokuba imivuzo ephezulu kwabo bahluphekayo ingakwandisa njani ukukhutshwa kwerhasi yegreenhouse.

Ubalo lwale ngxelo lubhekiselele kwiindlela zentlupheko ezisetyenziswe yiBhanki yehlabathi njengesiseko soqikelelo lwayo phakathi kwe-2015 kunye ne-2022. NgoSeptemba, nangona kunjalo, iBhanki yehlabathi yabeka imigca emitsha yentlupheko ukuba ithathele ingqalelo ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezibalulekileyo. Ukususela ngoko, ingeniso engaphantsi kwe-USD 2,15 ngosuku ithathwa njengentlupheko enkulu (ngaphambili i-USD 1,90). Eminye imida emibini ngoku i-USD 3,65 "yamazwe anengeniso ephantsi-ephakathi" (ngaphambili i-USD 3,20) kunye ne-USD 6,85 "amazwe anengeniso ephakathi" (ngaphambili i-USD 5,50). Nangona kunjalo, le mida yengeniso ihambelana nangaphambili malunga namandla okuthenga.

Ukuphila kwintlupheko egqithisileyo ngo-2019 ngokweBhanki yehlabathi3 648 yezigidi zabantu4. Ukunyusa imivuzo yabo iye kwelona nani lisezantsi kunokunyusa ukukhutshwa kwerhasi yegreenhouse kwihlabathi malunga ne-1%. Kwimeko apho yonke ishumi leqondo kunye netoni nganye ye-CO2 ibala, ngokuqinisekileyo oku akuyona into engafanelekanga. Phantse ikota yabemi behlabathi baphila ngaphantsi komlinganiselo wentlupheko. Ukunyusa imivuzo yabo kumgca wentlupheko ephakathi kuya konyusa ukukhutshwa kwemveliso yehlabathi malunga ne-5%. Ngokungathandabuzekiyo umthwalo obalulekileyo kwimozulu. Kwaye ukunyusa imivuzo emalunga nesiqingatha sabemi ukuya kumgangatho ophezulu wentlupheko kunganyusa ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo nge-18%!

Ngoko ngaba akunakwenzeka ukuphelisa ubuhlwempu kuze kuthintelwe ukuwohloka kwemozulu ngaxeshanye?

Ukujonga kuMfanekiso 5 kwenza kucace: Ukukhutshwa kwe esona sityebi ipesenti enye ziphindwe kathathu into enokubangela ukuphelisa umgangatho ophakathi wobuhlwempu. Kwaye ukukhutshwa kwe esona sityebi ekhulwini (jonga uMfanekiso 1) bangaphantsi kancinane kathathu kunokufuneka ukuba bonke abantu bafumane umvuzo omncinci ongaphezu komgangatho ophezulu wentlupheko. Ukupheliswa kwentlupheko kufuna ukwabiwa ngokutsha okukhulu kohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwekhabhoni, kodwa oko akunakwenzeka nangayiphi na indlela.

Kakade ke, oku kusasazwa ngokutsha bekungayi kutshintsha yonke into ekhutshwayo yehlabathi. Ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwa zizityebi nabatyebileyo kufuneka ke ngoko kuncitshiswe ngaphaya kweli nqanaba.

Kwangaxeshanye, ukulwa nentlupheko akunakuquka nje ukunika abantu ithuba lokunyusa umvuzo wabo. Ngokweengcamango zeneoliberal kwezoqoqosho, abona bahluphekayo bebenokuba nethuba lokufumana imali ukuba imisebenzi eyongezelelekileyo ibinokudalwa ngokukhula koqoqosho.5. Kodwa ukukhula koqoqosho ngendlela ekhoyo ngoku kukhokelela ekwandeni kokukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo6.

Ingxelo ikhankanya uphando olwenziwa nguJefim Vogel, uJulia Steinberger et al. malunga neemeko zentlalo noqoqosho apho iimfuno zomntu zinokwaneliseka ngegalelo elincinci lamandla7. Olu phononongo luphonononga amazwe ali-106 malunga nokuba kuhlangatyezwana nawo kangakanani na iimfuno ezintandathu zoluntu: ezempilo, isondlo, amanzi okusela, ugutyulo, imfundo kunye nomvuzo omncinci, kunye nendlela ezinxulumana ngayo nokusetyenziswa kwamandla. Uphononongo luphetha ngokuthi amazwe aneenkonzo zoluntu ezilungileyo, iziseko zophuhliso ezilungileyo, ukungalingani kwemivuzo ephantsi kunye nokufikelela jikelele kumbane kunamathuba angcono okuhlangabezana nezi mfuno kunye nenkcitho ephantsi yamandla. Ababhali babona ukhathalelo olusisiseko jikelele njengenye yemilinganiselo ebaluleke kakhulu enokwenzeka8. Intlupheko inokupheliswa ngomvuzo ophezulu wemali, kodwa nangento ebizwa ngokuba “yingeniso yoluntu”: Iinkonzo zoluntu kunye neempahla ezenziwe zifumaneke simahla okanye ngexabiso eliphantsi kwaye zihambelana nendalo nazo zikhulula umthwalo kwi-wallet.

Umzekelo: Malunga ne-2,6 yeebhiliyoni zabantu kwihlabathi jikelele bapheka ngeparafini, iinkuni, amalahle okanye ubulongwe. Oku kukhokelela kungcoliseko lomoya wangaphakathi oluyintlekele oluneziphumo ezibi zempilo, ukusuka kukhohlokhohlo olungapheliyo ukuya kwinyumoniya kunye nomhlaza. Iinkuni namalahle okupheka ewodwa abangela ukukhutshwa kwegigatonne eyi-1 yeCO2 ngonyaka, malunga ne-2% yezinto ezikhutshwayo zehlabathi. Ukusetyenziswa kweenkuni namalahle nako kunegalelo ekugawulweni kwamahlathi, nto leyo ethetha ukuba iinkuni kufuneka zithuthwe imigama emide, ngokufuthi emqolo yamabhinqa. Ngoko umbane wamahhala ovela kwimithombo evuselelekayo uya kunciphisa intlupheko ngaxeshanye, ukhuthaze impilo entle, iindleko eziphantsi zokhathalelo lwempilo, ukhulule ixesha lemfundo kunye nokuthatha inxaxheba kwezopolitiko, kunye nokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwehlabathi.9.

Ezinye izindululo zezi: ukumisela ubuncinane kunye nemivuzo ephezulu, irhafu eqhubekayo kubutyebi kunye nelifa; ukutshintshela kwiindlela ezithandeka ngakumbi ngokwendalo yeemfuno ezanelisayo (imfuno yokufudumala inokwaneliswa kungekuphela nje ngokufudumeza kodwa nangokugquma okungcono, imfuno yokutya ngokutya okusekelwe kwizityalo kunokutya okusekelwe kwizilwanyana), ukutshintsha kwezithuthi kumntu ngamnye. kwizithuthi zikawonke-wonke, ukusuka kwiimoto ukuya kwiMobility esebenzayo.

Ingaxhaswa njani ngenkxaso-mali yokuncitshiswa kwentlupheko, ukuthomalalisa utshintsho lwemozulu nokutshintsha kwemozulu?

Amazwe atyebileyo kufuneka anyuse iinzame zabo zentsebenziswano zophuhliso, bathi ababhali. Kodwa udluliselo lwamazwe ngamazwe aluyi kwanela ukujongana nokungalingani kwemozulu yehlabathi. Kuya kufuneka utshintsho olukhulu kwiinkqubo zerhafu zelizwe nezamazwe ngamazwe. Kumazwe anengeniso ephantsi kunye nephakathi, kwakhona, ingeniso enokusetyenziswa ukuxhasa amaqela abuthathaka kufuneka iveliswe ngeerhafu eziqhubekayo kwingeniso yenkunzi, ilifa kunye nobutyebi.

Le ngxelo icaphula i-Indonesia njengomzekelo oyimpumelelo: Ngo-2014, urhulumente wase-Indonesia uye wayicutha kakhulu inkxaso yepetroli. Oku kuthetha ingeniso ephezulu kurhulumente. kodwa namaxabiso aphezulu amandla kubemi, nto leyo ekuqaleni yaxhokonxa inkcaso emandla. Kodwa uhlaziyo lwamkelwa xa urhulumente wagqiba kwelokuba asebenzise imali efunyenweyo ukuxhasa i-inshurensi yezempilo yehlabathi jikelele.

Ingeniso yerhafu yeenkampani zamazwe ngamazwe

Imithetho yamazwe ngamazwe yokurhafiswa kwamaqumrhu ezizwe ngezizwe kufuneka iyilwe ngendlela yokuba irhafu kwingeniso eyenziwa kumazwe anengeniso ephantsi kunye nephakathi nawo azuze loo mazwe ngokupheleleyo. Umyinge we-15 ekhulwini le-XNUMX leepesenti lerhafu ephantsi yerhafu yoshishino yehlabathi, emiliselwe kumfuziselo we-OECD, inganceda kakhulu amazwe atyebileyo apho amaqumrhu azinze khona, kunamazwe apho ingeniso yenziwa khona.

Iirhafu kumoya wamazwe ngamazwe kunye nokuhamba kolwandle

Iirhafu zokuhamba emoyeni naselwandle ziye zacetywa amaxesha amaninzi kwi-UNFCCC kunye namanye amaqonga. Ngo-2008, iiMaldives zabonisa ingcamango yerhafu yabahambi egameni leziqithi ezincinci. Ngo-2021, iZiqithi zaseMarshal kunye neeSolomon Islands zenze isindululo serhafu yokuthumela ngenqanawa kwi-International Maritime Organisation. Kwingqungquthela yemozulu eGlasgow, i-UN Special Reporteur kuPhuhliso kunye namaLungelo oLuntu yathatha iingcebiso kwaye yagxininisa uxanduva "lwabantu abacebileyo". Ngokwengxelo yakhe, ezi rhafu zimbini zinokuzisa phakathi kwe-132 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kunye ne-392 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngonyaka ukunceda iziqithi ezincinci kunye namazwe angaphuhliswanga kakhulu ukumelana nelahleko kunye nomonakalo kunye nokuqhelana nemozulu.

Irhafu yobutyebi kubantu abazizityebi kakhulu ngokuthanda ukhuseleko lwemozulu kunye nokuziqhelanisa

Malunga ne-65.000 yabantu (ngaphezulu nje kwe-0,001% yabantu abadala) banobutyebi obungaphezulu kwe-USD 100 yezigidi. Irhafu ephucukileyo ephucukileyo kubutyebi obugqithisileyo obunjalo inokunyusa imali yamanyathelo ayimfuneko okumelana nemozulu. NgokweNgxelo ye-UNEP yokuLungisa iGap, isithuba senkxaso-mali yi-USD 202 yebhiliyoni ngonyaka. IChancel yerhafu iphakamisa ukuqala kwi-1,5% yempahla ye-100 yezigidi ukuya kwi-1 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, i-2% ukuya kwi-10 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, i-2,5% ukuya kwi-100 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, kunye ne-3% kuyo yonke into elele ngasentla. Le rhafu (i-Chancel ibiza ngokuthi "i-1,5% ye-1,5 ° C") inokunyusa i-295 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngonyaka, phantse isiqingatha senkxaso-mali efunekayo yokulungelelanisa imozulu. Ngerhafu enjalo, i-US kunye namazwe aseYurophu ngokudibeneyo angakwazi ukunyusa i-USD 175 yezigidigidi kwingxowa-mali yemozulu yehlabathi ngaphandle komthwalo we-99,99% yabemi bawo.

Ukuba irhafu yayiza kutsalwa ukusuka kwi-USD 5 yezigidi - kwaye oko kuya kuchaphazela kuphela i-0,1% yabemi behlabathi - i-USD 1.100 yezigidigidi inokuqokelelwa ngonyaka ukukhuselwa kwemozulu kunye nokuziqhelanisa. Iimfuno zenkxaso-mali ezipheleleyo zokunciphisa utshintsho lwemozulu kunye nokulungelelanisa ukuya kuthi ga kwi-2030 kumazwe anengeniso ephantsi kunye nephakathi ngaphandle kwe-China iqikelelwa kwi-USD 2.000 ukuya kwi-2.800 yezigidigidi ngonyaka. Okunye koku kugutyungelwa lutyalo-mali olukhoyo nolucwangcisiweyo, lushiya umsantsa wemali we-1.800 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Ngoko irhafu yobutyebi ngaphezu kwe-5 yezigidi zeedola inokugubungela inxalenye enkulu yaloo msantsa wenkxaso-mali.

Okuphawulweyo: IiPlas zamaKristu
ifoto yeqweqwe: Ninara, CC BY
Uluhlu: Ingxelo yokungalingani kweMozulu, CC BY

Amagqabantshintshi

1 IKhansela, uLucas; Bothe, uPhillip; I-Voituriez, i-Tancrede (2023): Ingxelo yokungalingani kweMozulu 2023: iLebhu yeHlabathi yokungalingani. Kwi-intanethi: https://wid.world/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CBV2023-ClimateInequalityReport-3.pdf

2 https://www.sdgwatch.at/de/ueber-sdgs/

3 https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/half-global-population-lives-less-us685-person-day

4 Lo bhubhani utyhale abantu abazizigidi ezingama-2020 eyongezelelweyo phantsi komgca wentlupheko ngo-70, nto leyo yenza inani laya kutsho kwi-719 yezigidi. Abona bantu bahluphekayo bangama-40% abantu behlabathi baphulukene nomndilili we-4%: kwimivuzo yabo, abona bazizityebi ngama-20% kuphela yi-2%: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/05/global-progress-in-reducing-extreme-poverty-grinds-to-a-halt

5 ZBDollar, David & Kraay, Art (2002): "Ukukhula kuhle kwabahluphekileyo", Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 7, hayi. 3, 195-225. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40216063

6 Bona iposti yethu https://at.scientists4future.org/2022/04/19/mythos-vom-gruenen-wachstum/

7 Vogel, Yefim; Steinberger, Julia K.; O'Neill, uDaniel W.; IMvana, uWilliam F.; Krishnakumar, Jaya (2021): Iimeko zentlalo nezoqoqosho zokwanelisa iimfuno zoluntu ekusetyenzisweni kwamandla aphantsi: Uhlalutyo lwamazwe ngamazwe lokubonelela ngentlalontle. Ku: Global Environmental Change 69, p. 102287. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102287.

8 Coote A, Percy A 2020. ICase for Universal Basic Services. UJohn Wiley kunye noonyana.

9 https://www.equaltimes.org/polluting-cooking-methods-used-by?lang=en#.ZFtjKXbP2Uk