Lipoti la Kusagwirizana kwa 2023: Misonkho yachuma kwa olemera kwambiri mokomera kusintha kwanyengo

Ndizodziwika bwino kuti anthu omwe amapeza ndalama zochepa amayambitsa mpweya wochepa wa mpweya woipa kuposa anthu omwe amapeza ndalama zambiri. Kusalingana uku kukukulirakulirabe, monga momwe lipoti laposachedwa la katswiri wazachuma Lucas Chancel wa World Inequality Lab akuwonetsa. Sukuluyi idakhazikitsidwa ku Paris School of Economics, pomwe katswiri wazachuma a Thomas Piketty ("Capital in the 21st Century") ali paudindo wapamwamba.

Malinga ndi lipoti la 2023 Climate Inequality Report1, theka la anthu osauka kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi ndi amene amachititsa 11,5% yokha ya mpweya padziko lonse, pamene 10% yapamwamba imayambitsa pafupifupi theka la mpweya, 48%. 16,9 peresenti yapamwamba ndiyo imayambitsa XNUMX% ya mpweya.

Kusiyanaku kumakhala koonekeratu kwambiri ngati muyang'ana pamtundu uliwonse wa anthu omwe amapeza ndalama. Kuti akwaniritse cholinga cha 1,5°C, munthu aliyense wokhalamo: padziko lonse lapansi ayenera kuyambitsa matani 2050 okha a CO1,9 pachaka pofika 2. M'malo mwake, 50% ya anthu osauka kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi akadali otsika kwambiri kuposa matani 1,4 pa munthu aliyense, pomwe 101% yapamwamba imaposa nthawi 50 pa matani XNUMX pa munthu aliyense.

Kuchokera mu 1990 mpaka 2019 (chaka chomwe mliri wa Covid-19 usanachitike), mpweya wochokera ku theka losauka kwambiri la anthu padziko lonse lapansi ukukwera kuchokera pa avareji ya matani 1,1 mpaka 1,4 a CO2e. Utsi wochokera pa 80 peresenti yapamwamba wakwera kuchoka pa 101 kufika ku matani XNUMX pa munthu aliyense pa nthawi yomweyo. Zotulutsa zamagulu ena zakhalabe chimodzimodzi.

Gawo la theka losauka kwambiri la mpweya wokwanira lawonjezeka kuchoka pa 9,4% kufika pa 11,5%, gawo la olemera kwambiri peresenti kuchoka pa 13,7% kufika pa 16,9%.

Ku Europe, kuchuluka kwa mpweya pamunthu aliyense kudatsika kuyambira 1990 mpaka 2019. Koma kuyang'ana pamagulu opeza ndalama kukuwonetsa kuti mpweya wa theka losauka kwambiri ndi 40 peresenti yatsika ndi pafupifupi 30%, mpweya wa 10% wapamwamba ndi 16,7% yokha ndi omwe olemera kwambiri 1,7 peresenti ndi 1990% yokha. . Choncho kupita patsogolo kwakhala makamaka chifukwa cha ndalama zochepa ndi zapakati. Izi zitha kufotokozedwa, mwa zina, chifukwa ndalama zomwe amapezazi sizinachuluke kwenikweni kuyambira 2019 mpaka XNUMX.

Ngati mu 1990 kusagwirizana kwapadziko lonse kunkadziwika makamaka ndi kusiyana kwa mayiko osauka ndi olemera, lerolino makamaka chifukwa cha kusiyana pakati pa osauka ndi olemera m'mayiko. Magulu a anthu olemera ndi olemera kwambiri atulukiranso m'mayiko omwe ali ndi ndalama zochepa komanso zapakati. Kum'mawa kwa Asia, 10 peresenti yapamwamba imayambitsa mpweya wochuluka kwambiri kuposa ku Ulaya, koma otsika ndi 50 peresenti yochepa kwambiri. M'madera ambiri padziko lapansi, theka losauka kwambiri la mpweya wotulutsa mpweya pa munthu aliyense uli pafupi kapena kuchepera matani 1,9 pachaka, kupatula ku North America, Europe ndi Russia/Central Asia.

Panthawi imodzimodziyo, anthu osauka kwambiri amakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo. Atatu mwa anayi a ndalama zotayika chifukwa cha chilala, kusefukira kwa madzi, moto wolusa, mphepo yamkuntho ndi zina zotero zinagunda theka la anthu osauka kwambiri padziko lapansi, pamene olemera 10% amavutika ndi 3% yokha ya ndalama zomwe zimatayika.

Theka la anthu osauka kwambiri lili ndi 2% yokha ya chuma padziko lonse lapansi. Choncho ali ndi njira zochepa zodzitetezera ku zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo. Olemera 10% ali ndi 76% yachuma, kotero amakhala ndi zosankha zambiri.

M’madera ambiri opeza ndalama zochepa, kusintha kwa nyengo kwachepetsa zokolola zaulimi ndi 30%. Anthu opitilira 780 miliyoni pakadali pano ali pachiwopsezo cha kusefukira kwamadzi komanso umphawi wotsatira. Maiko ambiri ku Global South tsopano ndi osauka kwambiri kuposa momwe akanakhalira popanda kusintha kwa nyengo. Mayiko ambiri otentha ndi otentha akhoza kutaya ndalama zopitirira 80% pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za zana lino.

Zomwe zingatheke pakuchepetsa umphawi pakutulutsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha

Pamwamba pa UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs2) ya 2030 ikuyimira kuthetsa umphawi ndi njala. Kodi kuthetsa umphawi wapadziko lonse kungayambitse mavuto aakulu pa bajeti ya CO2 yomwe ilipobe kwa ife kuti tikwaniritse zolinga za nyengo ya Paris? Kafukufukuyu akuwonetsa momwe ndalama zomwe amapeza kwa osauka kwambiri zingawonjezere kutulutsa kwawo mpweya wowonjezera kutentha.

Kuwerengera kwa lipotili kumanena za umphawi womwe Banki Yadziko Lonse idagwiritsa ntchito ngati maziko pakuyerekeza kwake pakati pa 2015 ndi 2022. Komabe, mu September, Banki Yadziko Lonse inakhazikitsa mizere yatsopano yaumphawi kuti iganizire za kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu zofunika. Kuyambira pamenepo, ndalama zosakwana USD 2,15 patsiku zimawonedwa ngati umphawi wadzaoneni (kale USD 1,90). Malire ena awiriwa tsopano ndi USD 3,65 kwa "mayiko opeza ndalama zotsika" (omwe kale anali USD 3,20) ndi USD 6,85 "maiko opeza ndalama zapakati" (omwe kale anali USD 5,50). Komabe, malire a ndalamawa amafanana ndi akale potengera mphamvu zogulira.

Kukhala muumphawi wadzaoneni mu 2019 malinga ndi World Bank3 Anthu 648 miliyoni4. Kukweza ndalama zomwe amapeza mpaka zotsika kwambiri kungakweze kutulutsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha padziko lonse ndi pafupifupi 1%. Munthawi yomwe gawo lililonse lakhumi la digiri ndi toni iliyonse ya CO2 imawerengedwa, izi sizofunikira kwenikweni. Pafupifupi gawo limodzi mwa magawo anayi a anthu padziko lonse lapansi amakhala pansi pa umphaŵi wapakati. Kukweza ndalama zawo ku mzere waumphawi wapakatikati kungawonjezere mpweya wapadziko lonse ndi pafupifupi 5%. Mosakayikira kwambiri katundu pa nyengo. Ndipo kukweza ndalama za pafupifupi theka la anthu kukhala paumphawi wapamwamba kungapangitse mpweya wotulutsa mpweya ndi 18%!

Ndiye kodi n’zosatheka kuthetsa umphaŵi ndi kupeŵa kugwa kwa nyengo panthaŵi imodzi?

Kuyang'ana pa Chithunzi 5 kumamveketsa bwino: Kutulutsa kwa olemera kwambiri peresenti imodzi ndi kuwirikiza katatu zomwe kuthetsa umphawi wapakati kungayambitse. Ndipo zotulutsa za olemera khumi pa zana (onani Chithunzi 1) ndi zocheperapo kuwirikiza katatu zomwe zikanafunika kuti anthu onse azipeza ndalama zochepa kuposa umphawi wapamwamba. Choncho, kuthetsa umphawi kumafuna kugawidwa kwakukulu kwa bajeti ya carbon, koma sizingatheke.

Inde, kugawanso kumeneku sikungasinthe mpweya wonse wapadziko lonse. Choncho, mpweya wa olemera ndi olemera uyenera kuchepetsedwa kupyola mulingo uwu.

Panthawi imodzimodziyo, kulimbana ndi umphawi sikungangophatikizapo kupatsa anthu mwayi wowonjezera ndalama zawo. Malinga ndi malingaliro a neoliberal economic ideology, osauka kwambiri akanakhala ndi mwayi wopeza ndalama ngati ntchito zambiri zitapangidwa kudzera mukukula kwachuma.5. Koma kukula kwachuma m'mawonekedwe ake apano kumabweretsa kuwonjezeka kwina kwa mpweya6.

Lipotilo limatchula kafukufuku wa Jefim Vogel, Julia Steinberger et al. za chikhalidwe ndi zachuma zomwe zosowa za anthu zimatha kukhutitsidwa ndi mphamvu zochepa7. Kafukufukuyu akuwunika mayiko a 106 pamlingo womwe zosowa zisanu ndi chimodzi za anthu zimakwaniritsidwa: thanzi, zakudya, madzi akumwa, ukhondo, maphunziro ndi ndalama zochepa, komanso momwe zimagwirizanirana ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu. Kafukufukuyu akumaliza kuti mayiko omwe ali ndi ntchito zabwino zapagulu, zomangamanga zabwino, kusagwirizana kwa ndalama zochepa komanso mwayi wopeza magetsi padziko lonse ali ndi mwayi wokwaniritsa zosowazi pogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zochepa. Olembawo amawona chisamaliro choyambirira chapadziko lonse ngati chimodzi mwazinthu zofunika kwambiri zomwe zingatheke8. Umphawi ukhoza kuchepetsedwa ndi ndalama zomwe zimapeza ndalama zambiri, komanso kudzera mu zomwe zimatchedwa "ndalama zamagulu": Ntchito zapagulu ndi katundu zomwe zimapezeka kwaulere kapena zotsika mtengo komanso zogwirizana ndi chilengedwe zimathandizanso kuchepetsa katundu pa chikwama.

Chitsanzo: Anthu pafupifupi 2,6 biliyoni padziko lonse lapansi amaphika palafini, nkhuni, makala kapena ndowe. Izi zimabweretsa kuwonongeka kwa mpweya m'nyumba ndi zotsatira zoopsa za thanzi, kuyambira kutsokomola mpaka chibayo ndi khansa. Mitengo ndi makala ophikira okha zimatulutsa mpweya wa gigatonne imodzi ya CO1 pachaka, pafupifupi 2% ya mpweya padziko lonse lapansi. Kugwiritsa ntchito nkhuni ndi makala kumathandizanso kuti nkhalango ziwonongeke, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti nkhuni ziyenera kunyamulidwa mtunda wautali, nthawi zambiri pamisana ya amayi. Chifukwa chake magetsi aulere ochokera kumagwero ongowonjezedwanso angachepetse umphawi nthawi imodzi, kulimbikitsa thanzi labwino, kuchepetsa ndalama zothandizira zaumoyo, kumasula nthawi yamaphunziro ndi kutenga nawo mbali pazandale, ndikuchepetsa kutulutsa mpweya padziko lonse lapansi.9.

Malingaliro ena ndi: kukhazikitsa ndalama zochepera komanso zochulukirapo, misonkho yopitilira pachuma ndi cholowa; kusintha kwa zosoŵa zokhutiritsa zachilengedwe (kufunidwa kwa kutentha kungakhutitsidwe osati kungotenthetsa kokha komanso kupyolera mu kutentha kwabwino, kufunikira kwa chakudya kudzera muzomera osati zakudya zanyama), kusintha kwa zoyendera kuchokera kwa munthu payekha. kupita ku zoyendera za anthu onse, kuchokera ku mota kupita ku yogwira Mobility.

Kodi ndalama zothandizira kuchepetsa umphawi, kusintha kwa nyengo ndi kusintha kwa nyengo zingathandize bwanji?

Mayiko olemera akuyenera kulimbikitsa mgwirizano wawo pachitukuko, akutero olembawo. Koma kusamutsidwa kwa mayiko sikungakhale kokwanira kuthana ndi kusalingana kwanyengo padziko lonse lapansi. Kusintha kwakukulu m'machitidwe amisonkho adziko lonse ndi apadziko lonse lapansi kudzafunika. M'mayiko omwe ali ndi ndalama zochepa komanso zapakati, nawonso ndalama zomwe zingagwiritsidwe ntchito pothandizira magulu omwe ali pachiopsezo ziyenera kupangidwa kudzera m'misonkho yopita patsogolo pa ndalama zopezera ndalama, cholowa ndi chuma.

Lipotilo linanena kuti dziko la Indonesia ndi chitsanzo chabwino kwambiri: Mu 2014, boma la Indonesia linachepetsa kwambiri ndalama zothandizira mafuta. Izi zikutanthauza kuti boma lipeza ndalama zambiri. komanso mitengo yapamwamba yamagetsi kwa anthu, zomwe poyamba zinayambitsa kukana kwakukulu. Komabe, kusinthaku kunavomerezedwa pamene boma linaganiza zogwiritsa ntchito ndalamazo kuti lipereke inshuwalansi ya umoyo wapadziko lonse.

Ndalama zamisonkho zamakampani akumayiko osiyanasiyana

Malamulo a mayiko okhometsa msonkho m’mabungwe a mayiko osiyanasiyana ayenera kupangidwa m’njira yoti misonkho ya phindu imene imapangidwa m’mayiko osauka ndi apakati ipindulitsenso mayikowo mokwanira. Misonkho ya 15 peresenti yamakampani padziko lonse lapansi, yotengera chitsanzo cha OECD, ingapindulitse kwambiri mayiko olemera kumene mabungwewo ali, osati mayiko omwe phindu limapangidwa.

Misonkho pamayendedwe apamlengalenga ndi panyanja

Ndalama zoyendetsera ndege ndi nyanja zaperekedwa kangapo ku UNFCCC ndi maforamu ena. Mu 2008, a Maldives adapereka lingaliro la msonkho wa okwera m'malo mwa zilumba zazing'ono. Mu 2021, zilumba za Marshal Islands ndi Solomon Islands zidapereka msonkho wotumizira ku International Maritime Organisation. Pamsonkhano wanyengo ku Glasgow, Mtolankhani Wapadera wa UN pa Chitukuko ndi Ufulu Wachibadwidwe adatenga malingalirowo ndikugogomezera udindo wa "anthu olemera". Malinga ndi lipoti lake, misonkho ziwirizi zitha kubweretsa pakati pa $132 biliyoni ndi $392 biliyoni pachaka kuti zithandizire zilumba zazing'ono komanso mayiko osatukuka kwambiri kuthana ndi kuwonongeka ndi kuwonongeka komanso kusintha kwanyengo.

Msonkho wachuma kwa olemera kwambiri mokomera kuteteza nyengo ndi kusintha

Pafupifupi anthu 65.000 (oposa 0,001% ya anthu akuluakulu) ali ndi chuma choposa USD 100 miliyoni. Msonkho wochepa pang'onopang'ono pa chuma chambiri chotere ukhoza kukweza ndalama zothandizira kuthana ndi nyengo. Malinga ndi UNEP Adaptation Gap Report, kusiyana kwa ndalama ndi USD 202 biliyoni pachaka. Chancel ya msonkho ikufuna kuti iyambe pa 1,5% pa katundu wa $ 100 miliyoni mpaka $ 1 biliyoni, 2% mpaka $ 10 biliyoni, 2,5% mpaka $ 100 biliyoni, ndi 3% pa ​​chirichonse chomwe chiri pamwambapa. Misonkho iyi (Chancel imayitcha "1,5% ya 1,5 ° C") ikhoza kukweza $ 295 biliyoni pachaka, pafupifupi theka la ndalama zomwe zimafunikira kuti zigwirizane ndi nyengo. Ndi msonkho woterewu, mayiko aku US ndi ku Europe palimodzi atha kukweza kale USD 175 biliyoni ku thumba lazanyengo padziko lonse lapansi popanda kulemetsa 99,99% ya anthu awo.

Ngati msonkho ukanaperekedwa kuchokera ku USD 5 miliyoni - ndipo ngakhale izi zingakhudze 0,1% ya anthu padziko lonse lapansi - USD 1.100 biliyoni ikhoza kusonkhanitsidwa chaka chilichonse pofuna kuteteza nyengo ndi kusintha. Zofunikira zonse zopezera ndalama zochepetsera kusintha kwa nyengo ndikusintha mpaka 2030 kumayiko omwe ali ndi ndalama zochepa komanso zapakati kupatula China zikuyerekezeredwa pa USD 2.000 mpaka 2.800 biliyoni pachaka. Zina mwa izi zimakhudzidwa ndi ndalama zomwe zilipo komanso zomwe zakonzedwa, ndikusiya kusiyana kwandalama kwa $ 1.800 biliyoni. Chifukwa chake msonkho wachuma wopitilira $ 5 miliyoni ukhoza kuphimba gawo lalikulu la kusiyana kwandalama.

Malo: Christian Plas
chithunzi chakumbuyo: Ninara, CC BY
Matebulo: Lipoti la Kusagwirizana kwa Nyengo, CC BY

Ndemanga

1 Chance, Lucas; Bothe, Phillip; Voituriez, Tancrede (2023): Lipoti la Kusagwirizana kwa Nyengo 2023: Labu Yosagwirizana Padziko Lonse. Pa intaneti: https://wid.world/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CBV2023-ClimateInequalityReport-3.pdf

2 https://www.sdgwatch.at/de/ueber-sdgs/

3 https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/half-global-population-lives-less-us685-person-day

4 Mliriwu wakakamiza anthu enanso 2020 miliyoni omwe ali pansi pa umphawi mu 70, zomwe zapangitsa kuti chiwerengerochi chifike 719 miliyoni. Osauka kwambiri 40% ya anthu padziko lapansi adataya pafupifupi 4%: ndalama zomwe amapeza, olemera 20% okha 2%: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/05/global-progress-in-reducing-extreme-poverty-grinds-to-a-halt

5 ZBDollar, David & Kraay, Art (2002): "Kukula ndi kwabwino kwa osauka", Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 7, ayi. 3, 195-225. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40216063

6 Onani positi yathu https://at.scientists4future.org/2022/04/19/mythos-vom-gruenen-wachstum/

7 Vogel, Yefim; Steinberger, Julia K.; O'Neill, Daniel W.; Mwanawankhosa, William F.; Krishnakumar, Jaya (2021): Mikhalidwe yazachuma kuti ikwaniritse zosowa za anthu pakugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zochepa: Kusanthula kwapadziko lonse lapansi pazakudya. Mu: Global Environmental Change 69, p. 102287. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102287.

8 Coote A, Percy A 2020. Mlandu wa Universal Basic Services. John Wiley & Ana.

9 https://www.equaltimes.org/polluting-cooking-methods-used-by?lang=en#.ZFtjKXbP2Uk