Helmut Melzer
Iyo ramangwana inosarudzwa mukupenya kweziso: Pamberi pemakore mabhiriyoni e4,6 apfuura, pasi rakagadzirwa negasi neguruva, mumakumi mashoma mashoma mafungidziro avo - uye ayo evagari vavo - achaiswa chisimbiso. Uye chii, kusarudzika, senjodzi yechiGreek: "uyu" murume anofunga ", anofungidzirwa svumbunuro yekushanduka-shanduka, achityisidzira Mai Rudzi uye nekuvapo kwazvo. - Asi zvichachinja.
"Zviri nezve nyika itsva. Isu tiri pachinzvimbo chekuunza pasi epasi munzira dzakatosiyana, "Dirk Messner
Nyika ichaponeswa - Dirk Messner ane chokwadiwo cheizvi. Nyanzvi yeGerman mukusimudzira kwepasirese ndeumwe wevanhu ivavo vanotarisa kune ramangwana nechivimbo, kunyangwe paine matambudziko. Uye ndiye mumiriri weavo vanotiona pamharadzano dzenzira kupinda muzera idzva. Pakutanga kweinogona kunge iri nguva yakakosha kwazvo yevechidiki vanhu. "Zviri nezve newview world. "Tiri kukwanisa kutora hurongwa hwepasi munzira dzakasiyana zvachose," anodaro Messner, achiratidza nzira - yekunzwisiswa kwemaonero epasi rose nekusimbiswa kunodiwa. Uye anogona kuzviratidza: Neyekudzidza "Yemunhu Chibvumirano cheGuru Shanduko. Iyo nzira inoenda kune inoenderana neyemamiriro ekunze hupfumi hwepasirese ", iye nevamwe vake varatidziri vakakonzeresa kunzwa kwepasirese.
Nyika itsva
Pasi idiski uye iri pakati pezvakasikwa. - Yedu yekurangarira ndangariro inozviziva zvirinani. Asi, nzanga yedu, inotungamirirwa nekuziva uye chikonzero, inonyatso kubvisa humhandara? Kuongorora kwenyika dzakawanda kwe Nyika Yemhedzisiro Inowongorora ratidza shanduko kune itsva worldview. Mumakore apfuura 30 makore, data rakaunganidzwa munyika dze97 mune dzese tsika uye matunhu epasi, izvo pamwechete zvinogadzira kupfuura 88 muzana yehuwandu hwepasirese. Mhedzisiro yacho inoratidza maonero ari kuchinja enyika: Vanhu vari munyika dzese dzepasi zvino vari kuwirirana zvikuru: Shanduko yemamiriro ekunze idambudziko rakakura, rakasangana nenzvimbo (89,3 muzana yevakabvunzwa munyika dze49, n = 62.684). Mune ruzhinji rwematunhu, kukosha kwekudzivirirwa kwezvakatipoteredza kunopfuura kunyange iko kwekukura kwehupfumi nemabasa. Uye: 65,8 muzana yevakabvunzwa (n = 68.123) vangade kusiya imwe yemari yavo pachavo kana mari yacho yakashandiswa kurwisa kusvibiswa.
Shanduko yakanyarara
Nyanzvi yezvematongerwo enyika yeUS Ronald Inglehart inotaura nezve "chimurenga chimurenga" yakanangana nezvakatipoteredza nekusimudzira zvinhu, nyowani maonero. Dzidziso yake yekushanduka kwehunhu yakatsanangurwa muchidimbu: Kana imwe nhanho yebudiriro ikwanisika, nzanga inofuratira kubva ku "kudisa zvinhu" ichienda kune "post-zvinhu zvekuda". Nhoroondo inoita kunge inosimbisa izvi. Mushure meChipiri Hondo Yenyika, paive nekutsvaga kwakawanda kwekuchengetedza kwepanyama, kugadzikana kwehupfumi uye kurongeka. Kwemakumi matatu emakore, zvakadaro, kukosha kwe "post-zvinhu zvinodiwa" kwakawedzera. Kuzviziva, kutora chikamu muhurumende pamwe nerusununguko rwekutaura uye kushivirira zvinouya pamberi uye zvino zvapararira zvakanyanya. Saka zvakare iyo maxim yekusimudzira. Pamusoro pechiono chitsva chenyika, kune varikure vanotsigira vatsva venyika yepasi nguva, iyo Holocene, inotsiviwa neAnthropocene. Chikonzero chinogutsa: simba revanhu rakagara riri simba rekutarisa pasisitimu yepasi. "Kana iwe uchida kutarisa kukura kwemakungwa pamusoro pemazana emakore, unofanirwa kutarisa kudyiwa kwevanhu," anodaro Dirk Messner, achitaura nezve masimba masimba evanhu pamusoro pezvakasikwa, zvinoenderana ne "chirongwa che geoengineering" chisingatarisirwi. Ndokusaka mitemo, pfungwa uye uzivi zvichidikanwa izvo zvinopa simba kune iyo nyowani maonero. "Sezvakanangana nekodzero dzevanhu kana mutemo wepasi rese munzvimbo mavo, tinofanirwa kutora mutoro wepasi nezvizvarwa zvinotevera," inodaira nyanzvi yekusimudzira.
Shanduko huru iri kuuya
Chinhu chimwe chave kutove nechokwadi: izvo zvinonzi "shanduko huru" hazvizononoka kuuya. Izvo - kunze kwekuchinja mune yepasirese - isingamiswe nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakawanda. Izvi zvatove zvasimbiswa neve US economists Michael Spence2050 ichave inogara vanhu vangangosvika mabhiriyoni mapfumbamwe pagasi Pasi. Shanduko yemamiriro ekunze icharamba ichienderera mberi. Nyika dzichiri kusimukira uye dzichiri kusimukira dziri kupedzisira dzabatana nenyika dzakabudirira. Nhume: "Simba rehupfumi rinofanirwa kushandurwa. Tichanyatsoona shanduko huru. Mubvunzo ndewakuti: Tinogona here kuvasimudzira kusvika pakugadzikana? Nhau dzakanaka ndedzekuti shanduko inokwanisa mune zvemari hupfumi hwenyika nekusimudzira nzanga yakatotanga. Dambudziko rakanyanya iripo nguva yacho ".
Nzira ina dzamangwana
Ndiwo madhiraivha mana anogona kukonzeresa shanduko yenhamba yepasirese. Dambudziko: vatatu chete avo vanogona kutapurwa. Zviratidzo - senge izvo zvakatungamira pakuvambwa kweEuropean Union - zvakavakirwa pazvikonzero uye chikonzero. Tekinoroji uye hunyanzvi zvakaunza iyo IT change. Mutyairi akangwara- anofambiswa neruzivo iko kutsvaga kunoda ruzivo nezvematambudziko. Izvo zvakakonzera kunzwisisika kweiyo ozone hole. Nekudaro, matambudziko anofanirwa kutariswa seanonyanya kukosha madhiraivha: Vanosimudza shanduko nematambudziko makuru, haanyatso kurambwe uye anogona kutungamira munzira dzakashata. Messenger anoti kutengeserana kwekudzivirira kwakakosha zvakanyanya mushanduko inoenda kunosimudzira, nekuti kana mamiriro ekunze uye mamiriro epasi zvatanga kukonzera matambudziko epasi rose, izvi zvinogona kuve nemhedzisiro isingachinjiki.
Kuitei?
Kufunga ramangwana rakasimba nderokugadziriswazve kwenzvimbo nhatu kunyanya: simba, dhorobha uye kushandiswa kwepasi. Iko kushandurwa kune asiri-fossil mafuta chinhu chakanyanya kusarudza chinhu. Uye, maererano naDirk Messner: "Kushanda kwemagetsi kwakanyanyisa kukosha. Zveshe zvinodikanwa zvinofanirwa kuve zvakapetwa nekusimbiswa. Ndosaka zvichikosha kuti shanduko ive simba rinowanikwazve riwanike. "Maitiro ekushandisa evari kugara muguta, pamusoro peiwo megacities makuru aripo ari kubuda muAsia, akakoshawo pano. "Guta rinofanira kudzoserwazve," ndiwo mutsara waMessner. Asi nyanzvi iyi zvakare ine tarisiro maererano nesimba: Nenharaunda yepasi rose ye20 kuenda ku30 muzana yesimba rinowanikwazve kuti ripinde munzvimbo yekupinza, izvo zvinogadzira mutengo unoshandurwa kumafosto. Asi iyo shanduko ine kutenda: IU.S. regai Europe itungamire mukuvandudzika kwesimba rinowanikwazve uye inongoda kukwira mumutengo unonzwisisika. Asi kunyangwe kubudirira kwekupayona mushanduko yesimba kunounza hupfumi hweEurope hazvisati zvichizopindurwa. Izvo zvinotsanangura kuzhinji kwekuzeza.
Deductible mutengo
Chero zvazvingaitika, mutengo wekushanduka kweanosvika zvikamu zviviri kubva muzana zvezvigadzirwa zvepasi rose zvinogona kudzikiswa mune zvemari. Sechikamu chekubatanidzwazve kweGerman, pakati pematanhatu uye masere masere muzana eGNP yakaiswa mune iyo ex-GDR. Dzimwe nguva dambudziko rakakosha: yakanaka 500 mabhiriyoni emadhora - achingori chikamu chimwe chete muzana repasi rose chigadzirwa - achiri kutengeswa gore rimwe nerimwe mukutsigirwa kwemafuta ezve mafossil.
Zvematongerwo enyika dzepasirese zvinowedzera kuoma
Asi mune zvematongerwo enyika chete, shanduko mukusimudzira iri kuramba ichitowedzera kuoma, sekuratidzwa kwemusangano wemamiriro ekunze. Zvematongerwo enyika dzepasi rose zvachinja, masimba ari kuchinja zvine hunyanzvi kuhupfumi hunowedzera seChina neIndia. Nhume: "Nyangwe nyika dzakabudirira dzingave dzakakwanisa kugadzira bumbiro radzo rekusimudzira mashoma makumi emakore apfuura, shanduko yanhasi haichagona kudzorwa yega. Izvo zvichanetsa: isu takavhiringidza, asi vamwe vanofanira kubhadhara izvozvi. "(Helmut Melzer)
Photo / Video: Yeko Photo Studio, Shutterstock.
