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Umbiko Wokungalingani wango-2023: Intela yengcebo yabacebile kakhulu evuna ukuzivumelanisa nesimo sezulu


Kuyaziwa ukuthi abantu abahola kancane babangela ukukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa okuncane kunabantu abahola kakhulu. Lokhu kungalingani kuyaqhubeka nokukhula, njengoba umbiko wakamuva wesazi sezomnotho u-Lucas Chancel we-World Inequality Lab ubonisa. Lesi sikhungo sizinze e-Paris School of Economics, kanti usomnotho u-Thomas Piketty ("Inhloko-dolobha Yekhulu Lama-21") osesikhundleni esiphezulu.

Ngokombiko ka-2023 Wokungalingani Kwesimo Sezulu1, ingxenye empofu kakhulu yabantu bomhlaba inesibopho sokukhipha igesi engu-11,5% kuphela, kuyilapho i-10% ephezulu ibangela cishe ingxenye yegesi ekhishwayo, ama-48%. Iphesenti eli-16,9 eliphezulu libhekene ne-XNUMX% yezinto ezikhishwayo.

Umfanekiso 1: Isabelo samaqembu ahlukene aholayo ekukhishweni kwesisi esibamba ukushisa emhlabeni

Umehluko uba sobala nakakhulu uma ubheka i-capita per capita emissions emaqenjini ahlukahlukene aholayo. Ukuze ufinyelele umgomo ongu-1,5°C, sonke isakhamuzi: emhlabeni kufanele sibangele kuphela amathani angu-2050 e-CO1,9 ngonyaka ngo-2. Eqinisweni, u-50% wabantu abampofu kakhulu emhlabeni usalokhu ungaphansi kwalowo mkhawulo kumathani angu-1,4 umuntu ngamunye, kuyilapho i-101% ephezulu idlula lowo mkhawulo izikhathi ezingu-50 ngamathani ayi-XNUMX umuntu ngamunye.

Umfanekiso 2: Okukhishwayo ngomuntu ngamunye ngeqembu lemali engenayo

Kusukela ngo-1990 kuya ku-2019 (unyaka owandulela ubhubhane lwe-Covid-19), ukukhishwa kwegesi ngomuntu ngamunye kusuka engxenyeni empofu kakhulu yabantu bomhlaba kukhuphuke kusuka esilinganisweni samathani angu-1,1 kuya ku-1,4 we-CO2e. Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kusuka kumaphesenti angu-80 aphezulu kwenyukile kusuka kumathani angama-101 kuya kwayi-XNUMX ngomuntu ngamunye esikhathini esifanayo. Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kwamanye amaqembu kusalokhu kufana.

Ingxenye yengxenye yengxenye empofu kunazo zonke ezikhiqizweni ezikhishwayo inyukile isuka ku-9,4% yaya ku-11,5%, ingxenye yephesenti elilodwa elicebe kakhulu isuka ku-13,7% yaya ku-16,9%.

Isitolo sokulungisa amabhayisikili, eNdiya. Isithombe: ibnebattutas, via Wikimedia, I-CC BY-NC-SA

E-Europe, ukukhishwa kwe-capita per capita kwehle kukonke ukusuka ku-1990 kuya ku-2019. Kodwa ukubheka amaqembu aholayo kukhombisa ukuthi ukukhishwa kwegesi kwengxenye empofu kakhulu kanye namaphesenti angama-40 amaphakathi kwehle cishe ngo-30%, ukukhishwa kwamaphesenti ayishumi aphezulu ngo-10% kuphela kanye nalawo acebe kakhulu ngo-16,7% kuphela ngo-1,7% . Ngakho-ke inqubekelaphambili ikakhulukazi ibe ngezindleko zeholo eliphansi neliphakathi. Lokhu kungachazwa, phakathi kwezinye izinto, ngokuthi le mali engenayo ayizange inyuke ngokweqiniso ukusuka ku-1990 kuya ku-2019.

Ithebula 1: Ukuthuthukiswa kokukhishwa kwe-capita ngayinye eYurophu ngeqembu lemali engenayo kusukela ngo-1990 kuya ku-2019

Uma ngo-1990 ukungalingani kwembulunga yonke kwakubonakaliswa ngokuyinhloko umehluko phakathi kwamazwe ampofu nacebile, namuhla kubangelwa kakhulu umehluko phakathi kwabampofu nabacebile emazweni. Izigaba zabacebile nabacebe kakhulu ziye zavela emazweni anemali ephansi naphakathi. EMpumalanga Asia, amaphesenti ayishumi aphezulu abangela ukungcola okuningi kakhulu kunaseYurophu, kodwa aphansi ngamaphesenti angu-10 aphansi kakhulu. Ezifundeni eziningi zomhlaba, uhhafu ompofu okhishwayo ngomuntu ngamunye usondele noma ungaphansi komkhawulo wamathani angu-50 ngonyaka, ngaphandle kwaseNyakatho Melika, eYurophu naseRussia/Central Asia.

Umfanekiso 3: Izinyathelo ze-CO2 ngeqembu lemali engenayo kanye nesifunda somhlaba 2019

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abampofu kakhulu bathinteka kakhulu yimiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Izingxenye ezintathu kwezine zokulahlekelwa kwemali engenayo ngenxa yesomiso, izikhukhula, imililo yequbula, iziphepho nokunye kuhlasele ingxenye yabantu abampofu kakhulu emhlabeni, kuyilapho u-10% ocebe kakhulu ulahlekelwa u-3% kuphela wemali engenayo.

Umfanekiso 4: Ukulahlekelwa kokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kanye nesabelo somnotho womhlaba ngokweqembu lemali engenayo

Ingxenye yabantu abampofu kakhulu iphethe u-2% kuphela womcebo womhlaba. Ngakho-ke banezindlela ezincane kakhulu abangazisebenzisa ukuze bazivikele emiphumeleni yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Abacebile abangu-10% banama-76% omcebo, ngakho banezinketho eziningi eziphindwe kaningi.

Ezifundeni eziningi zabantu abahola kancane, ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kwehlise umkhiqizo wezolimo ngama-30%. Abantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-780 njengamanje basengozini yezikhukhula ezimbi kanye nobumpofu obuwumphumela. Amazwe amaningi eGlobal South manje ampofu kakhulu kunalokho obekungaba njalo ngaphandle kokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Amazwe amaningi asezindaweni ezishisayo nezishisayo angase alahlekelwe yimali engenayo engaphezu kuka-80% ekuqaleni kwekhulunyaka.

Umthelela ongaba khona wokunciphisa ubumpofu ekukhishweni kwesisi esibamba ukushisa

Phezulu kwe-UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs2) ngo-2030 umele ukuqedwa kobumpofu nendlala. Ingabe ukuqeda ubumpofu emhlabeni wonke kungabeka ubunzima obukhulu kusabelomali se-CO2 esisatholakala kithi ukuze sifinyelele imigomo yesimo sezulu saseParis? Ucwaningo luveza izibalo zokuthi imali engenayo ephezulu yabampofu ingakhuphula kanjani ukukhishwa kwesisi esibamba ukushisa.

Izibalo zalo mbiko zibhekisela emigqeni yobumpofu iBhange Lomhlaba elisebenzisa njengesisekelo sezilinganiso zalo phakathi kuka-2015 no-2022. Nokho, ngoSepthemba, iBhange Lomhlaba labeka imigqa emisha yobumpofu ukuze icabangele ukukhuphuka kwamanani ezimpahla ezibalulekile. Kusukela lapho, imali engenayo engaphansi kuka-USD 2,15 ngosuku ithathwe njengobumpofu obudlulele (ngaphambilini okwakuyi-USD 1,90). Eminye imikhawulo emibili manje isiyi-USD 3,65 "yamazwe anengeniso ephansi-maphakathi" (ngaphambilini eyayiyi-USD 3,20) kanye ne-USD 6,85 "yamazwe anengeniso ephakathi nendawo" (ngaphambilini eyayiyi-USD 5,50). Nokho, le mikhawulo yemali engenayo ihambisana naleyo yangaphambilini ngokwamandla okuthenga.

Ukuphila ngobumpofu obukhulu ngo-2019 ngokusho kweBhange Lomhlaba3 648 abantu abayizigidi4. Ukwenyusela umholo wabo ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu kuzokwenyusa ukukhishwa kwesisi esingcolisa umoya emhlabeni cishe ngo-1%. Esimeni lapho konke okweshumi kwezinga kanye nethani ngalinye le-CO2 kubalwa, lokhu akuyona into enganaki. Cishe ingxenye yesine yenani labantu emhlabeni liphila ngaphansi komugqa wobumpofu omaphakathi. Ukwenyusela umholo wabo emgqeni wobumpofu obumaphakathi kungakhuphula ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni emhlabeni wonke cishe ngo-5%. Ngokungangabazeki umthwalo obalulekile esimweni sezulu. Futhi ukukhuphula imali engenayo cishe ingxenye yabantu kumugqa wobumpofu ophakeme kungakhuphula ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ngama-18%!

Ngakho-ke akunakwenzeka yini ukuqeda ubumpofu futhi kugwenywe ukuwohloka kwesimo sezulu ngesikhathi esifanayo?

Ukubheka Umfanekiso 5 kwenza kucace: Ukukhishwa kwe- iphesenti elilodwa elicebe kakhulu ziphindwe kathathu kunalokho okungadalwa ukuqeda izinga elimaphakathi lobumpofu. Futhi ukukhishwa kwe amaphesenti ayishumi acebe kakhulu (bheka Umfanekiso 1) zingaphansi kancane kokuphindwe kathathu kunalokho obekungadingeka ukuze kuhlinzekwe bonke abantu imali encane engenayo ngaphezu komugqa wobumpofu ophezulu. Ngakho-ke ukuqedwa kobumpofu kudinga ukwabiwa kabusha okukhulu kwesabelomali sekhabhoni, kodwa akwenzeki neze.

Umfanekiso 5: Ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 okuvela ekunciphiseni ubumpofu uma kuqhathaniswa nokukhishwa kwephesenti elicebe kakhulu elingu-XNUMX

Kunjalo, lokhu kusatshalaliswa kabusha bekungeke kuguqule isamba esikhishwa emhlabeni wonke. Ngakho-ke ukukhishwa kwabacebile nabacebile kufanele kwehliswe kudlule leli zinga.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukulwa nobumpofu akukwazi nje ukuhlanganisa ukunikeza abantu ithuba lokukhulisa imali yabo engenayo. Ngokombono we-neoliberal economic ideology, abampofu bangaba nethuba lokuthola imali ukube kudaleka amathuba emisebenzi ngokukhula komnotho.5. Kodwa ukukhula komnotho ngendlela okuyo njengamanje kuholela ekwenyukeni okwengeziwe kwesisi esikhishwayo6.

Umbiko ucaphuna ucwaningo olwenziwa nguJefim Vogel, uJulia Steinberger et al. mayelana nezimo zenhlalo-mnotho lapho izidingo zomuntu zinganeliswa khona ngokufaka okuncane kwamandla7. Lolu cwaningo luhlola amazwe angu-106 ngezinga okuhlangatshezwana nalo izidingo zabantu eziyisithupha eziyisisekelo: ezempilo, ukudla okunomsoco, amanzi okuphuza, ukuthuthwa kwendle, imfundo kanye nemali encane engenayo, nokuthi zihlobana kanjani nokusetshenziswa kwamandla. Ucwaningo luphetha ngokuthi amazwe anezinsizakalo ezinhle zomphakathi, ingqalasizinda enhle, ukungalingani kweholo eliphansi kanye nokufinyelela kwendawo yonke kagesi kunamathuba amahle kakhulu okuhlangabezana nalezi zidingo ngezindleko eziphansi zamandla. Ababhali babona ukunakekelwa okuyisisekelo kwendawo yonke njengenye yezinyathelo ezibaluleke kakhulu ezingenzeka8. Ubumpofu bungadalulwa ngeholo eliphezulu lemali, kodwa futhi nangalokho okubizwa ngokuthi “imali engenayo yomphakathi”: Izinsizakalo zomphakathi nezimpahla ezenziwa zitholakale mahhala noma ngeshibhile futhi ezihambisana nemvelo nazo zikhulula umthwalo esikhwameni.

Isibonelo: Cishe abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2,6 emhlabeni jikelele bapheka ngophalafini, izinkuni, amalahle noma ubulongwe. Lokhu kuholela ekungcolisweni komoya okuyingozi kwasendlini okunemiphumela emibi yezempilo, kusukela ekukhwehleleni okungapheli kuya kunyumoniya nomdlavuza. Izinkuni namalahle okupheka kuphela adala ukukhishwa kwe-gigatonne engu-1 ye-CO2 ngonyaka, cishe u-2% wezinto ezikhishwa emhlabeni wonke. Ukusetshenziswa kwezinkuni namalahle nakho kunomthelela ekugawulweni kwamahlathi, okusho ukuthi izinkuni kufanele zithuthwe ezindaweni ezikude kakhulu, ngokuvamile emhlane wabesifazane. Ngakho-ke ugesi wamahhala ovela emithonjeni evuselelekayo uzoqeda ubumpofu kanyekanye, ukhuthaze impilo enhle, izindleko zokunakekelwa kwezempilo eziphansi, ukhulule isikhathi semfundo nokubamba iqhaza kwezombusazwe, futhi unciphise ukukhishwa kwegesi emhlabeni jikelele.9.

Abesifazane baseTanzania batheza izinkuni
Photo: M-Rwimo , Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Ezinye iziphakamiso yilezi: ukubeka ubuncane kanye nemali engenayo ephezulu, intela eqhubekayo engcebweni nefa; ukushintshela ezinhlotsheni ezivumelana nemvelo zezidingo ezanelisayo (isidingo sokufudumala singaneliswa hhayi ngokufudumeza kuphela kodwa futhi nangokufakwa okungcono, isidingo sokudla ngokususelwa ezitshalweni esikhundleni sokudla okusekelwe ezilwaneni), ukushintshwa kwezinto zokuhamba zisuka kumuntu ngamunye. kuya kwezokuthutha zomphakathi, ukusuka kwezezimoto ukuya ku-Mobility esebenzayo.

Kungaxhaswa kanjani ngezimali ukuncishiswa kobumpofu, ukunqanda ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu?

Amazwe acebile adinga ukuqinisa imizamo yawo yokubambisana kwentuthuko, kusho ababhali. Kodwa ukudluliselwa kwamanye amazwe ngeke kwanele ukubhekana nokungalingani kwesimo sezulu somhlaba. Kuzodingeka izinguquko ezijulile ezinhlelweni zentela zikazwelonke nezamazwe ngamazwe. Emazweni aneholo eliphansi neliphakathi, imali engenayo engase isetshenziselwe ukusekela amaqembu asengozini kufanele yenziwe ngezintela eziqhubekayo zeholo lemali, ifa kanye nengcebo.

Umbiko ucaphuna i-Indonesia njengesibonelo esiyimpumelelo: Ngo-2014, uhulumeni wase-Indonesia wanciphisa kakhulu uxhaso lukaphethiloli. Lokhu kwakusho imali engenayo ephakeme kuhulumeni. kodwa namanani aphezulu kagesi kubantu, okuqale kwavusa ukumelana okuqinile. Nokho, lolu shintsho lwamukelwa lapho uhulumeni enquma ukusebenzisa imali ezuziwe ukuze axhase umshuwalense wezempilo wendawo yonke.

Imali yentela yezinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe

Imithetho yamazwe ngamazwe yokukhokhiswa intela kwezinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe kufanele yakhelwe ngendlela yokuthi izintela zenzuzo eyenziwa emazweni anemali engenayo ephansi naphakathi nendawo nazo zizuzise lawo mazwe ngokugcwele. Ubuncane bentela yebhizinisi yomhlaba engamaphesenti ayi-15, obumodelwe kumodeli ye-OECD, buzozuzisa kakhulu amazwe anothile lapho izinkampani zizinze khona, kunamazwe lapho kwenziwa khona inzuzo.

Izintela zethrafikhi yomoya nolwandle yamazwe ngamazwe

Izindleko zokuhamba emoyeni nasolwandle ziye zahlongozwa izikhathi eziningana ku-UNFCCC nakwamanye amaforamu. Ngo-2008, i-Maldives yethula umqondo wentela yabagibeli egameni lezifunda ezincane zesiqhingi. Ngo-2021, i-Marshal Islands kanye ne-Solomon Islands yenza isiphakamiso sentela yokuthutha ku-International Maritime Organization. Engqungqutheleni yesimo sezulu e-Glasgow, Umlobi Okhethekile We-UN Kwezokuthuthukiswa Namalungelo Abantu uthathe iziphakamiso futhi wagcizelela umthwalo wemfanelo "wabantu abacebile". Ngokombiko wakhe, lezi zinhlawulo ezimbili zingaletha phakathi kuka-$132 billion no-$392 billion njalo ngonyaka ukusiza amazwe aseziqhingini ezincane kanye namazwe athuthuke kancane ukuthi akwazi ukubhekana nokulahlekelwa nokulimala kanye nokuvumelana nesimo sezulu.

Intela yengcebo yabacebile kakhulu evuna ukuvikelwa kwesimo sezulu nokuzivumelanisa nezimo

Cishe abantu abangu-65.000 (ngaphezudlwana kuka-0,001% wabantu abadala) banomnotho ongaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-USD 100. Intela eqhubekayo enesizotha kule nhlanhla eyeqisayo ingase inyuse imali yezinyathelo ezidingekayo zokubhekana nesimo sezulu. Ngokombiko we-UNEP Adaptation Gap Report, igebe lezimali lingama-USD 202 billion njalo ngonyaka. IShansela lentela lihlongoza ukuthi kuqale ku-1,5% ezimpahleni zamaRandi ayizigidi eziyikhulu kuze kufike ku-$100 bhiliyoni, u-1% kuze kufike ku-$2 billion, u-10% ufike ku-$2,5 billion, bese u-100% wayo yonke into elele ngenhla. Le ntela (Ishansela liyibiza ngokuthi “3% ku-1,5°C”) ingaqongelela amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-1,5 ngonyaka, cishe ingxenye yemali edingekayo yokubhekana nesimo sezulu. Ngentela enjalo, amazwe ase-US kanye namazwe ase-Europe ehlangene asengakwazi kakade ukukhulisa ama-USD 295 billion wesikhwama sesimo sezulu somhlaba wonke ngaphandle kokuthwesa umthwalo ongama-175% wabantu bawo.

Isithombe: Timothy Krause nge Flickr, CC BY

Uma intela ibingaqoqwa kusukela ku-USD 5 million - futhi lokho bekuzothinta kuphela u-0,1% wabantu bomhlaba - ama-USD 1.100 billion angaqoqwa minyaka yonke ukuze kuvikelwe isimo sezulu kanye nokuzivumelanisa nezimo. Izidingo zezimali eziphelele zokunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokuzivumelanisa nezimo kuze kufike ku-2030 emazweni anemali engenayo ephansi naphakathi ngaphandle kwaseShayina zilinganiselwa ku-USD 2.000 kuya ku-2.800 bhiliyoni ngonyaka. Okunye kwalokhu kuhlanganiswa ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhona nokuhleliwe, okushiya igebe lezimali lika-$1.800 billion. Ngakho intela engcebweni engaphezu kuka-$5 million ingavala ingxenye enkulu yalelo gebe lezimali.

Okubonwayo: I-Christian Plas
isithombe sekhava: Ninara, CC BY

Amathebula: Umbiko Wokungalingani Kwesimo Sezulu, CC BY

Amazwi

1 Ikhansela, uLucas; Bothe, Phillip; I-Voituriez, i-Tancrede (2023): Umbiko Wokungalingani Kwesimo Sezulu 2023: Ilebhu Lomhlaba Lokungalingani. Ku-inthanethi: https://wid.world/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/CBV2023-ClimateInequalityReport-3.pdf

2 https://www.sdgwatch.at/de/ueber-sdgs/

3 https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/half-global-population-lives-less-us685-person-day

4 Lo bhubhane seluqhubekisele phambili abantu abengeziwe abayizigidi ezingama-2020 ngaphansi komugqa wobuphofu ngo-70, okwenza isibalo safinyelela ezigidini ezingama-719. Amaphesenti angama-40 abantu abampofu kakhulu emhlabeni alahlekelwe isilinganiso esingu-4%: emalini engenayo, abacebe ngama-20% kuphela ngo-2%: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/05/global-progress-in-reducing-extreme-poverty-grinds-to-a-halt

5 ZBDollar, David & Kraay, Art (2002): “Ukukhula kuhle kwabampofu”, Journal of Economic Growth, Umq. 7, no. 3, 195-225. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40216063

6 Bona okuthunyelwe kwethu https://at.scientists4future.org/2022/04/19/mythos-vom-gruenen-wachstum/

7 Vogel, Yefim; Steinberger, Julia K.; O'Neill, Daniel W.; IWundlu, uWilliam F.; I-Krishnakumar, Jaya (2021): Izimo zenhlalo-mnotho zokwanelisa izidingo zabantu ngokusetshenziswa kwamandla aphansi: Ukuhlaziywa kwamazwe ngamazwe kokuhlinzekwa komphakathi. Ku: Global Environmental Change 69, p. 102287. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102287.

8 U-Coote A, u-Percy A 2020. Ikesi Lezinsiza Eziyisisekelo Zomhlaba Wonke. UJohn Wiley & Amadodana.

9 https://www.equaltimes.org/polluting-cooking-methods-used-by?lang=en#.ZFtjKXbP2Uk

Lokhu okuthunyelwe kudalwe Umphakathi Wokukhetha. Joyina futhi uthumele umyalezo wakho!

OKUQUKETHWE YOKUVULA I-AUSTRIA


Ibhalwe ngu UMartin Auer

Wazalelwa eVienna ngo-1951, owayengumculi nomlingisi, umbhali ozimele kusukela ngo-1986. Imiklomelo ehlukahlukene kanye nemiklomelo, okuhlanganisa nokuklonyeliswa ngesihloko sokuba uprofesa ngo-2005. Ufunde i-anthropology yamasiko nezenhlalo.

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