Ukukhishwa kwezempi - inani elingaziwa

nguMartin Auer

Amasosha omhlaba akhipha izilinganiso ezinkulu zamagesi abamba ukushisa. Kodwa akekho owazi kahle ukuthi yimalini. Lokhu kuyinkinga ngoba kudingeka amaqiniso nezibalo ezinokwethenjelwa ukuze kuliwe nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Eyodwa ukuhlolwa we I-Conflict and Environment Observatory ngokubambisana namaNyuvesi aseLancaster naseDurham eGreat Britain ithola ukuthi izibopho zokubika ezibalulwe ezivumelwaneni zesimo sezulu sase-Kyoto naseParis azanele nhlobo. Ukukhishwa kwegesi kwezempi kwakhishwa ngokusobala kuSivumelwano sase-Kyoto sango-1997 ngokunxuswa yi-USA. Selokhu kwafinyelelwa esivumelwaneni saseParis sika-2015 lapho kwadingeka khona ukuthi ukukhishwa kwegesi kwezempi kufakwe emibikweni yamazwe eya ku-UN, kodwa kulele ezifundazweni ukuthi - ngokuzithandela - zibika ngokwehlukana. Isimo siba nzima nakakhulu ukuthi i-UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) ibeka izibopho ezihlukene zokubika ezifundazweni ezahlukene kuye ngezinga lazo lokuthuthuka komnotho. Ama-43 kuSithasiselo I (Isijobelelo I) amazwe athathwa ngokuthi “athuthukile” (okuhlanganisa amazwe e-EU kanye ne-EU ngokwayo) anesibopho sokubika ukukhishwa kwawo kuzwelonke njalo ngonyaka. Amazwe “athuthuke kancane” (Non-Annex I) kufanele abike kuphela ngemva kweminyaka emine. Lokhu kufaka nenani lamazwe anezindleko eziphezulu zempi njengeChina, i-India, iSaudi Arabia ne-Israel.

Lolu cwaningo luhlole ukubikwa kokukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa kwezempi ngaphansi kwe-UNFCCC yango-2021. Ngokweziqondiso ze-IPCC, ukusetshenziswa kwezempi kwamafutha kufanele kubikwe ngaphansi kwesigaba 1.A.5. Lesi sigaba sihlanganisa konke ukukhishwa kwezibaseli ezingashiwongo kwenye indawo. Okuphumayo okuvela emithonjeni emile kufanele kubikwe ngaphansi kuka-1.A.5.a kanye nokuphumayo okuvela emithonjeni yeselula engaphansi kuka-1.A.5.b, ihlukaniswe ngethrafikhi yezindiza (1.A.5.bi), ithrafikhi yokuhamba (1.A. .5. b.ii) kanye "Nokunye" (1.A.5.b.iii). Ukukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa kufanele kubikwe njengokuhluka ngangokunokwenzeka, kodwa ukuhlanganisa kuvunyelwe ukuvikela ulwazi lwezempi.

Sekukonke, ngokocwaningo, imibiko ye-UNFCCC ngokuvamile ayiphelele, ngokuvamile ihlala ingacacile futhi ayikwazi ukuqhathaniswa nomunye nomunye ngoba awekho amazinga afanayo.

Emazweni angama-41 ase-Annex I ahloliwe (i-Liechtenstein ne-Iceland ayinazo izindleko zempi ngakho-ke azizange zifakwe), imibiko ye-31 ihlukaniswa njengephansi kakhulu, i-10 esele ayinakuhlolwa. Ukufinyeleleka kwedatha kuchazwa ngokuthi "okulungile" emazweni amahlanu: eJalimane, eNorway, eHungary, eLuxembourg naseCyprus. Kwamanye amazwe, kubhekwa njengabampofu (“abampofu”) noma abampofu kakhulu (“abampofu kakhulu”) (Amathebula).

I-Austria ibike ukuthi akukho kukhishwa okumile kanye namathani angama-52.000 e-CO2e ekhishwa ngamaselula. Lokhu kubhekwa "njengokungabikwa kahle okubaluleke kakhulu". Ukufinyeleleka kwedatha eyisisekelo kukalwe njengokuthi "kubi" ngoba ayikho idatha ehlukanisiwe ebikiwe.

I-Germany ibike amathani angu-411.000 e-CO2e ekukhishweni okunganyakazi kanye namathani angu-512.000 e-CO2e ekukhishweni kweselula. Lokhu kuphinde kubekwe "njengokubikelwa kancane okubaluleke kakhulu".

Ukusetshenziswa kwamandla ezintweni zempi kanye nokusetshenziswa kukaphethiloli ekusebenzeni kwezindiza, imikhumbi kanye nezimoto ezihamba phansi kuvame ukubonakala njengezimbangela eziyinhloko zokukhishwa kwezempi. Kepha ucwaningo olwenziwa yi-EU kanye namasosha ahlomile ase-UK lukhombisa ukuthi ukuthengwa kwemishini yezempi kanye namanye amaketanga okuhlinzeka yiwona abhekene nokukhipha okuningi. Emazweni e-EU, ukukhishwa okungaqondile kungaphezu kokukhishwa okuphindwe kabili okuqondile kulinganiselwa, kweGreat Britain izikhathi ezingu-2,67. Ukukhishwa kwegesi kuvela ekukhishweni kwezinto ezingavuthiwe, ukukhiqizwa kwezikhali, ukusetshenziswa kwazo ngamasosha futhi ekugcineni ukulahlwa kwazo. Futhi amasosha asebenzisa izikhali kuphela, kodwa uhla olubanzi lweminye imikhiqizo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, luncane kakhulu ucwaningo olwenziwe ngemiphumela yezingxabano zezempi. Izingxabano zezempi zingaguqula kakhulu izimo zezenhlalo nezomnotho, zibangele ukulimala okuqondile kwemvelo, ukubambezeleka noma kuvimbele izindlela zokuvikela indawo ezungezile, futhi kuholele amazwe ekwandiseni ukusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe obungcolisayo. Ukwakha kabusha amadolobha acekeleke phansi kungase kukhiphe izigidi zamathani esisi, kusukela ekususeni imfucumfucu kuya ekwenzeni ukhonkolo wezakhiwo ezintsha. Izingxabano nazo zivame ukuholela ekwenyukeni okusheshayo kokugawulwa kwamahlathi ngoba inani labantu alinayo eminye imithombo yamandla, okungukuthi ukulahlekelwa kwamasinki e-CO2.

Ababhali balolu cwaningo bagcizelela ukuthi ngeke kwenzeke ukufeza izinhloso zesimo sezulu saseParis uma amasosha eqhubeka njengakuqala. Ngisho ne-NATO ikubonile ukuthi kumele yehlise ukukhishwa kwayo. Ngakho-ke, ukukhishwa kwezempi kufanele kuxoxwe ku-COP27 ngoNovemba. Njengesinyathelo sokuqala, amazwe aseSijobelelo I kufanele adingeke ukuthi abike ukukhishwa kwawo kwezempi. Idatha kufanele ibe sobala, ifinyeleleke, ihlukaniswe ngokugcwele futhi ikwazi ukuqinisekiswa ngokuzimela. Amazwe angewona awe-Annex I asebenzisa imali ephezulu kwezempi kufanele abike ngokuzithandela ukukhishwa kwawo kwezempi minyaka yonke.

Ukukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa kubalwa ithuluzi lokubala lamazwe ngamazwe elisetshenziswa kakhulu, i I-Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Protocol, ihlukaniswe yaba izigaba ezintathu noma "scopes". Ukubika kwezempi kufanele futhi kuhambisane: I-Scope 1 izobe isiphuma emithonjeni elawulwa ngokuqondile amasosha, I-Scope 2 izoba imimoya engaqondile evela kugesi othengwe ngamasosha, ukushisisa nokupholisa, i-Scope 3 izobandakanya zonke ezinye izinto ezikhishwayo ezingaqondile njengamaketanga okuhlinzeka noma okubangelwa ukusebenza kwezempi ngenxa yezingxabano. Ukuze kuleveli yenkundla, i-IPCC kufanele ibuyekeze indlela yokubika ukukhishwa kwezempi.

Lolu cwaningo luncoma ukuthi ohulumeni kufanele bazibophezele ngokusobala ekwehliseni ukukhishwa kwezempi kwezempi. Ukuze ukholakale, izibopho ezinjalo kufanele zibeke okuhlosiwe okucacile kwamasosha ahambisana nokuhlosiwe okungu-1,5°C; kumele basungule izindlela zokubika eziqinile, eziqhathanisekayo, ezingafihli lutho futhi eziqinisekiswe ngokuzimela; amasosha kufanele anikezwe izinhloso ezicacile zokonga amandla, ukunciphisa ukuthembela kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi kanye nokushintshela kumandla avuselelekayo; imboni yezikhali kumele nayo ibekwe imigomo yokunciphisa. Lokhu kufanele kube okuhlosiwe kokwehliswa kwangempela hhayi okuhlosiwe okusekelwe esinxephezelweni. Izinyathelo ezihleliwe kufanele zenziwe esidlangalaleni futhi imiphumela kufanele ibikwe minyaka yonke. Okokugcina, umbuzo kufanele ubhekwe wokuthi ukuncipha kwezindleko zezempi kanye nokuthunyelwa kwezempi kanye nenqubomgomo yokuphepha evamile ehlukile ingaba nomthelela ekwehliseni ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni. Ukuze kusetshenziswe ngokugcwele izinyathelo ezidingekayo zesimo sezulu kanye nokuvikelwa kwemvelo, izinsiza ezidingekayo kufanele zenziwe zitholakale.