Umbiko: Ukuqedwa okuphelele kwegesi yaseRussia kungathethelelwa ngokomnotho

nguMartin Auer

Ukuphuma kwegesi yemvelo yaseRussia kungawuthinta kanjani umnotho wase-Austrian? Umbiko osanda kushicilelwa ngabakwa I-Complexity Science Hub Vienna by1. Impendulo ngamafuphi: iyabonakala kodwa iyalawuleka uma amazwe e-EU esebenzisana.

I-Austria ithenga kwamanye amazwe amaphesenti angu-80 egesi esetshenziswa minyaka yonke eRussia. I-EU cishe amaphesenti angama-38. Igesi ingase yehluleke kungazelelwe, noma ngenxa yokuthi i-EU ibeke i-embargo yokungenisa, noma ngenxa yokuthi iRussia yayeka ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, noma ngenxa yokuthi ingxabano yezempi e-Ukraine yonakalise amapayipi.

Umbiko uhlola izimo ezimbili ezingaba khona: Isimo sokuqala sithatha ukuthi amazwe e-EU asebenzisana ukuxazulula inkinga ndawonye. Isimo sesibili sithatha ngokuthi amazwe athintekile enza ngawodwana nangendlela engahlangene.

Ngo-2021 i-Austria yasebenzisa i-9,34 billion cubic metres yegesi yemvelo. Uma ingekho igesi yaseRussia, i-7,47 billion izobe ingekho. I-EU ingathola i-10 bcm eyengeziwe ngamapayipi akhona kanye nama-45 bcm ngendlela ye-LNG evela e-US noma e-Gulf States. I-EU ingathatha amabhiliyoni angama-28 m³ ezikhungweni zokugcina. Uma amazwe e-EU esebenza ndawonye ngendlela ehlelekile, izwe ngalinye beliyolahlekelwa ngamaphesenti angu-17,4 okusetshenziswa kwalo kwangaphambili. E-Austria, lokhu kusho ukususwa kwebhiliyoni elingu-1,63 m³ kulo nyaka (kusukela ngomhla ka-1 Juni).

Esimeni esingahlanganisiwe, wonke amazwe angamalungu azozama ukuthenga igesi engekho ezimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe. Ngaphansi kwalo mcabango, i-Austria ingathengisa ngezigidigidi ezi-2,65 m³. Kulesi simo, nokho, i-Austria ingalahla isitoreji sayo futhi ingahoxisa enye i-1,40 billion m³. Ngaphansi kwalesi simo, i-Austria izoshoda ku-3,42 billion m³, okungamaphesenti angu-36,6.

Ucwaningo luthatha ukuthi u-700MW wezitshalo zikagesi ezisebenza ngegesi zingaguqulwa zibe uwoyela esikhathini esifushane, konga amaphesenti angaba ngu-10,3 okusetshenziswa kwegesi minyaka yonke. Izinguquko zokuziphatha ezifana nokunciphisa izinga lokushisa legumbi ezindlini ngo-1°C kungase kuphumele ekongeni okungu-0,11 billion m³. Ukusetshenziswa okuncishisiwe kuzophinde kunciphise igesi edingekayo ukuze kusetshenziswe ingqalasizinda yamapayipi ngokuqhubekayo ngo-0,11 bcm.

Uma amazwe e-EU esebenzisana, i-Austria izoshoda ku-0,61 billion m³ ngonyaka ozayo, okungamaphesenti angu-6,5 okusetshenziswa konyaka. Uma izwe ngalinye belizenzela ngokwalo, i-Austria izoshoda ku-2,47 billion m³, okungamaphesenti angama-26,5 okusetshenziswa konyaka.

Ngemva kokuba amakhasimende avikelwe (imizi nezindawo zokuphehla amandla) enikeziwe, igesi esele yabelwa izimboni. Esimeni esididiyelwe, imboni kuzomele yehlise ukusetshenziswa kwayo kwegesi ngamaphesenti ayi-10,4 uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga elijwayelekile, kodwa ngamaphesenti angama-53,3 esimweni esingahlanganisiwe. Esimweni sokuqala, lokho kungasho ukwehla kokukhiqizwa ngamaphesenti angu-1,9, esimweni esibi kakhulu, ngamaphesenti angu-9,1.

Ukulahlekelwa, kusho umbiko, kuzoba ngaphansi kakhulu kumthelela wezomnotho wegagasi lokuqala le-Covid-19 esimweni sokuqala. Esimeni sesibili, ukulahlekelwa kungaqhathaniseka, kodwa kube kuncane kunokulahlekelwa okuvela kugagasi lokuqala le-corona.

Umthelela wokuvinjelwa kokungeniswa kwegesi uncike kakhulu ezinyathelweni ezithathwayo. Njengamaphuzu abalulekile, lo mbiko ucaphuna ukuhlanganiswa kwe-EU yonkana kwenqubomgomo yokunikezwa kwegesi, ukulungiselela ukushintsha izimboni zamandla kwezinye izinto zokubasa ehlobo, izikhuthazo zokushintsha izinqubo zokukhiqiza, izikhuthazo zokushintsha amasistimu okushisa, izikhuthazo zokutshala izimali kubuchwepheshe bamandla avuselelekayo, izikhuthazo abantu ukuthi babambe iqhaza ngenkuthalo ekongeni igesi.

Kafushane, lo mbiko uphetha ngokuthi: "Ngenxa yomonakalo omkhulu obangelwe impi, i-EU-wide ye-EU yokuvinjelwa kwegesi yaseRussia ingamela isu elisebenza ngokwezomnotho."

isithombe sekhava: Boevaya mashina: I-Gazprom Main Building eMoscow, nge-Wikimedia, CC-BY

1 Anton Pichler, Jan Hurt*, Tobias Reisch*, Johannes Stangl*, Stefan Thurner: Austria ngaphandle kwegesi yemvelo yaseRussia? Imithelela yezomnotho elindelwe yokumiswa kokuphakelwa kwegesi kungazelelwe kanye namasu okuyinciphisa.
https://www.csh.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-24-CSH-Policy-Brief-Gasschock-Fin-Kurzfassung-DE.pdf.
Umbiko ogcwele:
https://www.csh.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-24-CSH-Policy-Brief-Gas-Shock-Long-Version-EN.pdf