Imiphumela yesimo sezulu yempi yenuzi: Indlala yabantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili kuya kwezinhlanu

Ibhalwe nguMartin Auer

Umthelela wesimo sezulu wempi yenuzi ungakuthinta kanjani umsoco womhlaba wonke? Ithimba labacwaningi eliholwa uLili Xia no-Alan Robock base-Rutgers University baphenya lo mbuzo. i cwaningo isanda kushicilelwa kujenali Ukudla Kwemvelo i-veröffentlicht.
Intuthu nensile evela emadolobheni avuthayo bekuyokwenza kube mnyama isibhakabhaka ngokoqobo, kupholise kakhulu isimo sezulu, futhi kukhinyabeze kakhulu ukukhiqizwa kokudla. Izibalo zemodeli zibonisa ukuthi abantu abangaba yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili bangafa ngenxa yokuntuleka kokudla empini "elinganiselwe" (isb. phakathi kweNdiya nePakistan), futhi kuze kufike ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane ezinhlanu empini "enkulu" phakathi kwe-USA neRussia.

Abacwaningi basebenzise isimo sezulu, ukukhula kwezitshalo kanye namamodeli okudoba ukubala ukuthi mangaki ama-calories azotholakala kubantu ezweni ngalinye onyakeni wesibili ngemva kwempi. Kwahlolwa izimo ezehlukene. Impi yenuzi “elinganiselwe” phakathi kwe-India ne-Pakistani, isibonelo, ingajova phakathi kuka-5 no-47 Tg (i-teragram engu-1 = megaton engu-1) yomsizi ku-stratosphere. Lokho kungaphumela ekwehleni ngo-1,5°C kuya ku-8°C isilinganiso sokushisa emhlabeni wonke onyakeni wesibili ngemva kwempi. Nokho, ababhali baveza ukuthi uma impi yenuzi isiqalile, kungase kube nzima ukuyinqanda. Impi phakathi kwe-US namadlelandawonye ayo kanye neRussia - ebambe ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angama-90 wezikhali zenuzi - ingakhiqiza u-150 Tg womsizi kanye nokwehla kwezinga lokushisa ngo-14,8°C. Phakathi ne-Ice Age yokugcina engu-20.000 edlule, amazinga okushisa ayecishe abe ngu-5°C ngaphansi kunanamuhla. Imiphumela yesimo sezulu yempi enjalo yayizoncipha kancane, iqhubeke iminyaka eyishumi. Ukupholisa kuzophinde kunciphise imvula ezindaweni ezinezimvula zasehlobo.

Ithebula 1: Amabhomu e-athomu ezindaweni zasemadolobheni, amandla okuqhuma, ukufa okuqondile ngenxa yokuqhuma kwebhomu kanye nenani labantu abasengozini yendlala ezimeni ezihloliwe

Ithebula 1: Icala lokungcoliswa kwensisi engu-5 Tg lihambisana nempi okwakucatshangwa ukuthi iyimpi phakathi kwe-India ne-Pakistan ngo-2008, lapho uhlangothi ngalunye lisebenzisa amabhomu angama-50 alingana ne-Hiroshima kusukela kunqolobane yawo eyayitholakala ngaleso sikhathi.
Amacala we-16 kuya ku-47 Tg ahambisana nempi ecatshangwayo phakathi kwe-India nePakistan ngezikhali zenuzi okungenzeka babe nazo ngo-2025.
Icala elinokungcola kwe-150 Tg lihambisana nempi ecatshangelwayo yokuhlaselwa kweFrance, iJalimane, iJapan, iGreat Britain, i-USA, iRussia neChina.
Izinombolo ezikukholomu yokugcina zitshela ukuthi bangaki abantu abangabulawa indlala uma bonke abantu bondliwa ubuncane buka-1911 kcal umuntu ngamunye. Umcabango uthatha ngokuthi uhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe luwile.
a) Isibalo esikumugqa/ikholomu yokugcina sitholakala lapho u-50% wokukhiqizwa kokuphakelayo uguqulwa ube ukudla kwabantu.

Ukungcoliswa kwemisebe yendawo yenhlabathi namanzi eduze nokuqhuma kwamabhomu akufakiwe ocwaningweni, izilinganiso ngakho-ke zilondoloza kakhulu futhi inani langempela lezisulu lingaba phezulu. Ukupholisa okuzumayo, okukhulu kwesimo sezulu kanye nokuncipha kwezinga lokukhanya kwe-photosynthesis (“ubusika benuzi”) kungaholela ekubambezelekeni kokuvuthwa kanye nokucindezeleka okubandayo okwengeziwe ezitshalweni zokudla. Ezindaweni ezimaphakathi neziphezulu, ukukhiqizwa kwezolimo kuzolimala kakhulu kunasezindaweni ezishisayo nezishisayo. Ukungcoliswa kwe-stratospheric nge-27 Tg ye-black carbon kunganciphisa isivuno ngamaphesenti angaphezu kuka-50 kanye nezivuno zokudoba ngama-20 kuya ku-30% maphakathi ne-high-latitudes enyakatho nenkabazwe. Emazweni ahlome ngezikhali zenuzi iChina, iRussia, i-USA, iNorth Korea kanye neGreat Britain, ukutholakala kwamakhalori kuzokwehla ngo-30 kuya ku-86%, emazweni aseningizimu nezwe lenuzi iPakistan, India kanye ne-Israel ngo-10%. Sekukonke, esimweni esingalindelekile sempi yenuzi elinganiselwe, ingxenye yesine yabantu izobulawa indlala ngenxa yemiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu; empini enkulu, isimo esingenzeka kakhulu, abantu abangaphezu kuka-60% bazobulawa indlala phakathi neminyaka emibili. .

Ucwaningo, kufanele kugcizelelwe, lubhekisela kuphela emiphumeleni engaqondile ekukhiqizweni kokudla kokuthuthukiswa komsi wempi yenuzi. Kodwa-ke, izifundazwe ezilwayo zisazoba nezinye izinkinga okufanele zibhekane nazo, okuyingqalasizinda ecekeleke phansi, ukungcoliswa kwemisebe kanye nokuphazamiseka kwamaketanga okuhlinzeka.

Ithebula 2: Ushintsho ekutholakaleni kwamakholori okudla emazweni ahlome ngezikhali zenuzi

Ithebula 2: I-China lapha ihlanganisa i-Mainland China, i-Hong Kong ne-Macao.
Lv = imfucuza yokudla ezindlini

Kodwa-ke, imiphumela yokudla okunomsoco ayincikile kuphela ekuguquguqukeni kwesimo sezulu okubangelwe. Izibalo eziyimodeli zihlanganisa ukuqagela okuhlukahlukene mayelana nenani lezikhali ezisetshenzisiwe kanye nensimu ewumphumela nezinye izici: Ingabe uhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe luyaqhubeka, ukuze kunxeshezelwe ukushoda kokudla kwendawo? Ingabe ukukhiqizwa kokudla kwezilwane kuzothathelwa indawo ngokuphelele noma ngokwengxenye ukukhiqizwa kokudla kwabantu? Kungenzeka yini ukugwema ngokuphelele noma ngokwengxenye ukumosha ukudla?

Esimeni "esingcono kakhulu" sokungcoliswa ngo-5 Tg womsizi, isivuno somhlaba wonke sizokwehla ngo-7%. Kuleso simo, inani labantu bamazwe amaningi lingadinga ama-calories ambalwa kodwa lisenokwanele ukusekela amandla abo okusebenza. Ngokungcoliswa okukhulu, amazwe amaningi aphakathi nendawo naphezulu angalamba uma eqhubeka nokutshala ukudla kwezilwane. Uma ukukhiqizwa kokuphakelayo kwehliswa ngohhafu, amanye amazwe amaphakathi ne-latitude asengahlinzeka ngamakhalori anele kubantu bawo. Kodwa-ke, lawa amanani aphakathi nendawo futhi umbuzo wokusabalalisa uncike esakhiweni senhlalo yezwe nengqalasizinda ekhona.

Ngokungcola "okumaphakathi" kwe-47 Tg soot, ama-calories okudla anele kubantu bomhlaba angaqinisekiswa kuphela uma ukukhiqizwa kokuphakelayo bekuguqulelwa ekukhiqizeni ukudla okungu-100%, bekungekho mfucumfucu wokudla futhi ukudla okutholakalayo kwasatshalaliswa ngokulinganayo phakathi kwabantu bomhlaba. Ngaphandle kwesinxephezelo samazwe ngamazwe, ngaphansi kuka-60% wabantu bomhlaba abangaphakelwa ngendlela eyanele. Esimeni esibi kakhulu esihlolisisiwe, i-150 Tg ye-soot ku-stratosphere, ukukhiqizwa kokudla emhlabeni wonke kuzokwehla ngo-90% futhi emazweni amaningi kuphela ama-25% abantu abazokwazi ukuphila onyakeni wesibili ngemva kwempi.

Ikakhulukazi ukwehla kwesivuno okunamandla kubikezelwa kubathumeli bokudla ababalulekile njengeRussia ne-USA. Lawa mazwe angase asabele ngemikhawulo yokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, okungaba nemiphumela eyinhlekelele emazweni ancike ekuthengeni kwamanye amazwe e-Afrika naseMpumalanga Ephakathi, isibonelo.

Ngo-2020, kuye ngezilinganiso, phakathi kwezigidi ezingama-720 nezingu-811 abantu abahlushwa ukungondleki, nakuba ukudla okwanele kwakhiqizwa emhlabeni wonke. Lokhu kwenza kube nokwenzeka ukuthi noma kwenzeka kuba nenhlekelele yenuzi, ngeke kube khona ukwabiwa kokudla ngokulinganayo, ngaphakathi noma phakathi kwamazwe. Ukungalingani kubangelwa ukwehluka kwesimo sezulu nezomnotho. IGreat Britain izoba nokwehla okunamandla kwesivuno kuneNdiya, ngokwesibonelo. I-France, njengamanje edayisa ukudla ngaphandle, izoba nensada yokudla ezimeni eziphansi ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kokuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe. I-Australia yayizozuza esimweni sezulu esipholile esingasifanela kangcono ukutshala ukolweni.

Umfanekiso 1: Ukudla kwe-kcal kumuntu ngamunye ngosuku ngonyaka we-2 ngemuva kokungcoliswa kwe-soot kusuka empini yenuzi

Umfanekiso 1: Imephu engakwesokunxele ibonisa isimo sokudla ngo-2010.
Ikholomu yesokunxele ikhombisa icala lokuqhubeka nokuphakelwa kwemfuyo, ikholamu ephakathi ikhombisa icala elinamaphesenti angama-50 efolishi elidliwa abantu kanye no-50% wefolishi, kwesokudla libonisa icala elingenayo imfuyo eno-50% wefolishi edliwa abantu.
Wonke amamephu asekelwe embonweni wokuthi akukho ukuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe kodwa ukuthi ukudla kusakazwa ngokulinganayo ezweni.
Ezifundeni ezimakwe ngokuluhlaza, abantu bangathola ukudla okwanele ukuze baqhubeke nemisebenzi yabo yomzimba njengenjwayelo. Ezifundeni ezimakwe ngombala ophuzi, abantu bebencipha futhi bakwazi ukwenza umsebenzi wokuziphilisa. Okubomvu kusho ukuthi ukudla kwekhalori kungaphansi kwezinga le-basal metabolic, okuholela ekufeni ngemva kokuncipha kwezitolo zamafutha kanye nesisindo semisipha esisebenzisekayo.
150 Tg, 50% imfucuza kusho ukuthi u-50% wokudla okumoshwe ngenye indlela ekhaya uyatholakala ukuze ungondle, 150 Tg, 0% imfucuza kusho ukuthi konke ukudla okumoshwe ngenye indlela kuyatholakala ukuze kutholakale umsoco.
Umfanekiso ovela ku: Ukungavikeleki kokudla emhlabeni wonke kanye nendlala ngenxa yezitshalo ezincishisiwe, ukudoba olwandle kanye nokukhiqizwa kwemfuyo ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kwesimo sezulu ngenxa yomjovo we-nuclear soot, CC BY SA, ukuhumusha kwe-MA

Okunye okungenziwa ekukhiqizweni kokudla njengezinhlobo ezikwazi ukumelana nokubanda, amakhowe, izimila zasolwandle, amaprotheni avela ku-protozoa noma izinambuzane nokunye akubhekwanga ocwaningweni. Kungaba inselele enkulu ukuphatha ukushintshela emithonjeni enjalo yokudla ngesikhathi esifanele. Ucwaningo luphinde lubhekisele kuphela kuma-calories okudla. Kodwa abantu badinga amaprotheni nama-micronutrients. Kuningi okusavulekele ukuqhubeka nezifundo.

Okokugcina, ababhali bagcizelela futhi ukuthi imiphumela yempi yenuzi - ngisho nelinganiselwe - ingaba yinhlekelele ekuvikelekeni kokudla emhlabeni jikelele. Abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili kuya kwezinhlanu bangafela ngaphandle kwenkundla yezempi. Le miphumela iwubufakazi obengeziwe bokuthi impi yenuzi ngeke inqotshwe futhi akufanele neze ilwe.

Isithombe sekhava: 5ofnovember nge phumlani
Kubonwe: Verena Winiwarter