Imiphumo yemozulu yemfazwe yenyukliya: Indlala kubantu abazibhiliyoni ezimbini ukuya kwezintlanu

NguMartin Auer

Ingaba ifuthe lemozulu lemfazwe yenyukliya lingasichaphazela njani isondlo sehlabathi? Iqela lophando elikhokelwa nguLili Xia kunye no-Alan Robock abavela kwiYunivesithi yaseRutgers baphanda lo mbuzo. i isifundo isandula kupapashwa kwijenali Ukutya kwendalo veröffentlicht.
Umsi nothuthu oluphuma kwizixeko ezitshayo beluya kwenza mnyama isibhakabhaka, lupholise kakhulu imozulu, luze lusithintele kanobom imveliso yokutya. Izibalo zemodeli zibonisa ukuba ukuya kwiibhiliyoni ezimbini zabantu banokufa ngenxa yokunqongophala kokutya kwimfazwe "elinganiselwe" (umzekelo phakathi kweIndiya nePakistan), kwaye ukuya kwiibhiliyoni ezintlanu kwimfazwe "enkulu" phakathi kwe-USA neRashiya.

Abaphandi basebenzise imozulu, ukukhula kwezityalo kunye neemodeli zokuloba ukubala ukuba zingaphi iikhalori eziya kufumaneka kubantu kwilizwe ngalinye kunyaka wesibini emva kwemfazwe. Iimeko ezahlukeneyo ziye zavavanywa. Imfazwe yenyukliya “elinganiselweyo” phakathi kweIndiya nePakistan, umzekelo, inokutofa phakathi kwe-5 kunye ne-47 Tg (i-teragram e-1 = i-megaton e-1) yothuthu kwi-stratosphere. Oko bekuya kubangela ukuhla kwe-1,5°C ukuya kwi-8°C kumndilili wobushushu behlabathi kunyaka wesibini emva kwemfazwe. Nangona kunjalo, ababhali babonisa, xa imfazwe yenyukliya iqalile, kunokuba nzima ukuyibamba. Imfazwe phakathi kwe-US kunye namahlakani ayo kunye neRussia - ebambe ngaphezulu kwe-90 yeepesenti yezixhobo zenyukliya - inokuvelisa i-150 Tg yesoot kunye nokwehla kobushushu nge-14,8 ° C. Ngexesha le-Ice Age yokugqibela kwiminyaka engama-20.000 eyadlulayo, amaqondo obushushu ayemalunga ne-5°C ngaphantsi kunanamhlanje. Imozulu yaloo mfazwe ibiya kuncipha ngokuthe ngcembe, ithabathe iminyaka elishumi. Ukupholisa kwakhona kunganciphisa imvula kwimimandla eneemvula zasehlotyeni.

Itheyibhile 1: Iibhombu zeathomu kumaziko asezidolophini, amandla aqhushumbayo, ukufa ngokuthe ngqo ngenxa yokuqhuma kwebhombu kunye nenani labantu abasemngciphekweni wendlala kwiimeko ezivavanyiweyo.

Itheyibhile 1: Ityala le-5 Tg lokungcoliseka kwe-soot lihambelana nemfazwe ecingelwayo phakathi kwe-Indiya nePakistan ngo-2008, apho icala ngalinye lisebenzisa iibhombu ze-50 ze-Hiroshima ukusuka kwi-arsenal ekhoyo.
Iimeko ze-16 ukuya kwi-47 Tg zihambelana nemfazwe yokucinga phakathi kwe-Indiya nePakistan kunye nezixhobo zenyukliya ezinokuthi zibe nazo ngo-2025.
Icala nge-150 Tg yokungcola ihambelana nemfazwe ecingelwayo ngokuhlaselwa kweFransi, eJamani, eJapan, eGreat Britain, e-USA, eRashiya naseTshayina.
Amanani kwikholamu yokugqibela axela ukuba bangaphi abantu abaya kulamba ukuba abanye abantu bondliwa ubuncinci be-1911 kcal ngomntu ngamnye. Ingcinga ithatha ukuba urhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe luwile.
a) Inani elikumqolo/kholamu yokugqibela lifunyanwa xa i-50% yemveliso yokutya iguqulelwa kukutya kwabantu.

Ungcoliseko lweradioactive yendawo yomhlaba kunye namanzi kummandla woqhushumbo lwebhombu aluqukwanga kuphononongo, uqikelelo ke ngoko lulondoloza kakhulu kwaye elona nani lamaxhoba linokuba phezulu. Ukupholisa ngesiquphe, okukhulu kwemozulu kunye nokuncipha kweziganeko zokukhanya kwiphotosynthesis (“ubusika benyukliya”) kunokukhokelela ekulibazisekeni ukuvuthwa kunye noxinzelelo olongezelelweyo lokubanda kwizityalo zokutya. Embindini nakwizibanzi eziphakamileyo, imveliso yezolimo ibiya kuncipha ngakumbi kunakwimimandla ekweleenjiko neyeetropiki. Ungcoliseko lwestratospheric nge-27 Tg yekhabhoni emnyama luya kunciphisa isivuno ngaphezulu kwe-50% kunye nezivuno zokuloba ngama-20 ukuya kuma-30% kumbindi kunye nobude obuphezulu kumntla wehemisphere. Kumazwe axhobe ngenyukliya iChina, iRussia, iUSA, iNorth Korea kunye neGreat Britain, unikezelo lweekhalori luya kuncipha nge-30 ukuya kuma-86%, kumazwe asezantsi enyukliya ePakistan, eIndiya nase-Israel nge-10%. Ngokubanzi, kwimeko engalindelekanga yemfazwe yenyukliya elinganiselweyo, ikota yoluntu iya kufa yindlala ngenxa yempembelelo yokutshintsha kwemozulu; kwimfazwe enkulu, imeko enokwenzeka, ngaphezulu kwe-60% yabantu baya kufa yindlala phakathi kweminyaka emibini. .

Uphononongo, kufuneka lugxininiswe, lubhekiselele kuphela kwiziphumo ezingathanga ngqo kwimveliso yokutya yophuhliso lothuthu lwemfazwe yenyukliya. Nangona kunjalo, amazwe alwayo aseza kuba nezinye iingxaki ekuza kujongana nazo, ezizezi: ukutshatyalaliswa kweziseko ezingundoqo, ungcoliseko lweradioactive kunye nokuphazamiseka kwamakhonkco obonelelo.

Uluhlu 2: Utshintsho ekufumanekeni kweekhalori zokutya kumazwe axhobe ngenyukliya

Uluhlu 2: I-China apha ibandakanya i-Mainland China, i-Hong Kong kunye ne-Macao.
Lv = inkunkuma yokutya ezindlwini

Nangona kunjalo, iziphumo zesondlo azixhomekanga kuphela kwinguqu yemozulu ebangelwayo. Ubalo lwemodeli ludibanisa iingqikelelo ezahlukeneyo malunga nenani lezixhobo ezisetyenzisiweyo kunye nesoot esisiphumo kunye nezinye izinto: Ngaba urhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe lusaqhubeka, ukuze kubuyekezwe ukunqongophala kokutya? Ngaba ukuveliswa kokutya kwezilwanyana kuya kuthatyathelw’ indawo ngokupheleleyo okanye ngokuyinxenye kukuveliswa kokutya kwabantu? Ngaba kunokwenzeka ukuyiphepha ngokupheleleyo okanye ngokuyinxenye inkunkuma yokutya?

Kwimeko "egqwesileyo" yokungcoliseka nge-5 Tg yesoot, isivuno sehlabathi siya kuhla nge-7%. Kwimeko apho, abemi bamazwe amaninzi baya kufuna iikhalori ezimbalwa kodwa basenokwanela ukugcina abasebenzi babo. Ngokungcoliseka okukhulu, amazwe amaninzi anobude obuphakathi nophezulu angalamba ukuba ayaqhubeka nokukhulisa ukutya kwezilwanyana. Ukuba imveliso yesondlo iqingqelwe ngesiqingatha, amanye amazwe aphakathi kobubanzi asenokubonelela ngeekhalori ezaneleyo kubantu bawo. Nangona kunjalo, la ngamaxabiso aphakathi kwaye umbuzo wokusasazwa uxhomekeke kubume bentlalo belizwe kunye neziseko ezikhoyo.

Ngongcoliseko "oluphakathi" lwe-47 Tg soot, ukutya okwaneleyo kweekhalori zabemi behlabathi kunokuqinisekiswa kuphela ukuba imveliso yokutya itshintshelwe kwi-100% yemveliso yokutya, kwakungekho nkunkuma yokutya kwaye ukutya okukhoyo kwahanjiswa ngokufanelekileyo phakathi kwabemi behlabathi. Ngaphandle kwembuyekezo yamazwe ngamazwe, ngaphantsi kwe-60% yabemi behlabathi abanokondliwa ngokwaneleyo. Kwimeko embi kakhulu ephononongwayo, i-150 Tg ye-soot kwi-stratosphere, imveliso yokutya yehlabathi iya kuhla nge-90% kwaye kumazwe amaninzi kuphela i-25% yabemi eya kuphila kunyaka wesibini emva kwemfazwe.

Ngokukodwa ukwehla kwesivuno esinamandla kuqikelelwa kubathumeli bokutya kumazwe angaphandle njengeRussia ne-USA. La mazwe anokusabela ngezithintelo zokuthumela ngaphandle, okuya kuba neziphumo eziyingozi kumazwe axhomekeke kumazwe angaphandle eAfrika nakuMbindi Mpuma, umzekelo.

Ngo-2020, kuxhomekeke kuqikelelo, phakathi kwe-720 kunye ne-811 yezigidi zabantu abanengxaki yokungondleki, nangona ukutya okwaneleyo kwaveliswa kwihlabathi jikelele. Oku kwenza kube nokwenzeka ukuba naxa kukho intlekele yenyukliya, akusayi kubakho ukwabiwa ngokulinganayo kokutya, nokuba kungaphakathi okanye phakathi kwamazwe. Ukungalingani kubangelwa yiyantlukwano yemozulu nezoqoqosho. IGreat Britain iya kuba nokuhla kwesivuno esinamandla kuneIndiya, umzekelo. I-France, ngoku ethengisa ukutya ngaphandle, inokuba nentsalela yokutya kwiimeko ezisezantsi ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kurhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe. IOstreliya yayiza kuxhamla kwimozulu epholileyo ebiya kulungela kakuhle ukulima ingqolowa.

Umzobo 1: Ukutya kwi-kcal ngomntu ngamnye ngosuku ngonyaka we-2 emva kokungcoliswa kwe-soot kwimfazwe yenyukliya

Umzobo 1: Imephu esekhohlo ibonisa imeko yokutya ngo-2010.
Ikholamu ekhohlo ibonisa imeko ngokuqhubeka kokutya kwemfuyo, ikholamu ephakathi ibonisa imeko kunye ne-50% ye-forage yokusetyenziswa kwabantu kunye ne-50% ye-forage, ilungelo libonisa imeko ngaphandle kwemfuyo kunye ne-50% ye-forage yokusetyenziswa kwabantu.
Zonke iimephu zisekelwe kwingcinga yokuba akukho rhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe kodwa ukutya kwabiwa ngokulinganayo kwilizwe.
Kwimimandla ephawulwe ngokuluhlaza, abantu banokufumana ukutya okwaneleyo ukuze baqhubeke nemisebenzi yabo yomzimba njengesiqhelo. Kwimimandla ephawulwe ngombala otyheli, abantu baya kuncipha kwaye banokwenza umsebenzi wokuhlala. Ubomvu buthetha ukuba ukutya kweekhalori kungaphantsi komlinganiselo we-basal metabolic, okukhokelela ekufeni emva kokuphela kweevenkile zamafutha kunye nobunzima bemisipha.
150 Tg, 50% inkunkuma kuthetha ukuba ama-50% okutya okumoshwa ngenye indlela ekhaya kuyafumaneka ukuze kufumaneke isondlo; 150 Tg, 0% inkunkuma kuthetha ukuba konke ukutya okumoshwe ngenye indlela kuyafumaneka kwisondlo.
Umzobo osuka : Ukungakhuseleki kokutya kwehlabathi kunye nendlala evela kwizityalo ezincitshisiweyo, ukuloba elwandle kunye nemveliso yemfuyo ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kwemozulu evela kwinaliti yesoot yenyukliya., CC BY SA, inguqulelo MA

Iindlela ezizezinye kwimveliso yokutya njengeentlobo ezinganyangekiyo kubanda, amakhowa, ukhula lwaselwandle, iiprotheyini ezisuka kwiprotozoa okanye izinambuzane kunye nezinto ezinjalo azizange ziqwalaselwe kuphononongo. Kuya kuba ngumngeni omkhulu ukulawula utshintsho kwimithombo yokutya enjalo ngexesha elifanelekileyo. Uphononongo lukwabhekiselele kuphela kwiikhalori zokutya. Kodwa abantu bafuna iiprotheni kunye ne-micronutrients. Kuninzi okusavulelekileyo ukuze kuqhubeke izifundo.

Okokugqibela, ababhali bagxininisa kwakhona ukuba iziphumo zemfazwe yenyukliya - nokuba ilinganiselwe - iya kuba yintlekele kukhuseleko lokutya kwihlabathi. Abantu ababini ukuya kwiibhiliyoni ezintlanu banokufela ngaphandle kwendawo yemfazwe. Ezi ziphumo zibubungqina obungakumbi bokuba imfazwe yenyukliya ayinakoyiswa kwaye akufuneki ilwe.

Ifoto yeqweqwe: 5ofnovember nge mzimzi
Kubonwe: Verena Winiwarter