Ingxelo: Ukuphuma ngokupheleleyo kwerhasi yaseRashiya kuya kuthetheleleka ngokwezoqoqosho

nguMartin Auer

Ukupheliswa kwerhasi yendalo yaseRashiya kuya kuluchaphazela njani uqoqosho lwaseOstriya? Ingxelo esanda kupapashwa ngu Ubunzima beNzululwazi Hub Vienna ngokuthi1. Impendulo ngokufutshane: iyabonakala kodwa iyalawuleka ukuba amazwe e-EU asebenzisana.

IOstriya ithenga kumazwe angaphandle ama-80 ekhulwini egesi esetyenziswa minyaka le eRashiya. I-EU malunga neepesenti ze-38. Irhasi inokusilela ngequbuliso, mhlawumbi ngenxa yokuba i-EU inyanzelise i-embargo yokungenisa, okanye ngenxa yokuba iRussia iyekile ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle, okanye ngenxa yokuba imibhobho yonakaliswe yimfazwe yase-Ukraine.

Ingxelo ihlola iimeko ezimbini ezinokwenzeka: Eyokuqala ithatha ukuba amazwe e-EU asebenza kunye ukusombulula ingxaki kunye. Imeko yesibini ithatha ukuba amazwe achaphazelekayo asebenza ngabanye kwaye ngendlela engalungelelananga.

Ngo-2021 i-Austria yasebenzisa i-9,34 yeebhiliyoni zee-cubic metres zegesi yendalo. Ukuba akukho gesi yaseRashiya, i-7,47 yezigidigidi iya kulahleka. I-EU inokuthenga i-10 bcm eyongezelelweyo ngokusebenzisa imibhobho ekhoyo kunye ne-45 bcm ngendlela ye-LNG evela e-US okanye kwi-Gulf States. I-EU ingathatha iibhiliyoni ezingama-28 m³ kwiindawo zokugcina. Ukuba amazwe e-EU ebesebenza kunye ngendlela elungelelanisiweyo, ilizwe ngalinye beliya kuphoswa yi-17,4 ekhulwini yokusetyenziswa kwalo kwangaphambili. EOstriya, oku kuthetha ukuthabatha i-1,63 yebhiliyoni m³ kulo nyaka (ukususela nge-1 kaJuni).

Kwimeko engalungelelanisiweyo, onke amazwe angamalungu angazama ukuthenga irhasi engekhoyo kwiimarike zamazwe ngamazwe. Ngaphantsi kolu qikelelo, iOstriya inokuthengisa i-2,65 yebhiliyoni m³. Kule meko, nangona kunjalo, i-Austria inokulahla ugcino lwayo kwaye inokurhoxisa i-1,40 yezigidigidi ze-m³. Ngaphantsi kwale meko, i-Austria iya kuba mfutshane kwi-3,42 yeebhiliyoni ze-m³, eya kuba yi-36,6 yeepesenti.

Uphononongo luthatha ukuba i-700MW yezityalo zamandla ezibaswa ngerhasi zinokuguqulelwa kwi-oyile kwixesha elifutshane, ukonga enye i-10,3 yeepesenti yokusetyenziswa kwerhasi yonyaka. Ukutshintsha kokuziphatha okufana nokunciphisa ubushushu begumbi nge-1°C kunokubangela ukongiwa kwe-0,11 yebhiliyoni ye-m³. Usetyenziso olucuthiweyo luya kunciphisa irhasi efunekayo ukuze kusetyenziswe isiseko semibhobho ngenye i-0,11 bcm.

Ukuba amazwe e-EU asebenza kunye, i-Austria iya kuba mfutshane kwi-0,61 yeebhiliyoni ze-m³ kunyaka ozayo, eya kuba yi-6,5 yepesenti yokusetyenziswa konyaka. Ukuba ilizwe ngalinye beliya kwenza ngokwalo, i-Austria iya kuba mfutshane kwi-2,47 billion m³, eya kuba yi-26,5 yepesenti yokusetyenziswa konyaka.

Emva kokuba abathengi abakhuselweyo (amakhaya kunye nezixhobo zombane) banikezelwe, igesi eseleyo yabelwa ishishini. Kwimeko elungelelanisiweyo, imboni iya kufuneka kuphela ukunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwegesi nge-10,4 yeepesenti xa kuthelekiswa nezinga eliqhelekileyo, kodwa nge-53,3 yeepesenti kwimeko engalungelelaniswanga. Kwimeko yokuqala, oko kuya kuthetha ukuhla kwemveliso ye-1,9 yeepesenti, kwimeko embi kakhulu, nge-9,1 ekhulwini.

Ilahleko, itshilo ingxelo, iya kuba ngaphantsi kakhulu kunefuthe lezoqoqosho kwi-Covid-19 yokuqala kwimeko yokuqala. Kwimeko yesibini, ilahleko inokuthelekiswa, kodwa incinci kunelahleko evela kumaza e-corona yokuqala.

Impembelelo yokuvalwa kokungeniswa kwegesi ixhomekeke kakhulu kwimilinganiselo ethathwayo. Njengamanqaku aphambili, ingxelo ikhankanya ulungelelwaniso olubanzi lwe-EU yomgaqo-nkqubo wokubonelela ngegesi, ukulungiselela ukutshintshwa kwezityalo zamandla kwezinye izibaso ngexesha lasehlotyeni, inkuthazo yokutshintsha iinkqubo zemveliso, inkuthazo yokutshintsha iinkqubo zokufudumeza, inkuthazo yotyalo-mali kubuchwephesha bamandla avuselelekayo, ukukhuthaza abemi ukuba bathathe inxaxheba ngokukhutheleyo ekongeni igesi.

Isishwankathelo, ingxelo iqukumbela: "Ngenxa yomonakalo omkhulu owenziwe yimfazwe, i-EU-wide embargo yokungenisa igesi yaseRashiya inokumela isicwangciso esinoqoqosho."

ifoto yeqweqwe: Boevaya mashina: Isakhiwo esikhulu seGazprom eMoscow, nge-Wikimedia, i-CC-BY

1 U-Anton Pichler, uJan Hurt *, uTobias Reisch*, uJohannes Stangl*, uStefan Thurner: i-Austria ngaphandle kwegesi yendalo yaseRashiya? Iimpembelelo zoqoqosho ezilindelekileyo zokuyeka ukunikezelwa kwerhasi ngequbuliso kunye nezicwangciso zokuzithomalalisa.
https://www.csh.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-24-CSH-Policy-Brief-Gasschock-Fin-Kurzfassung-DE.pdf.
Ingxelo epheleleyo:
https://www.csh.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-24-CSH-Policy-Brief-Gas-Shock-Long-Version-EN.pdf