I-Economists Kemfert, Stagl: Inokwenziwa kwakhona ngaphandle kweoli yaseRashiya kunye negesi

nguMartin Auer

"IYurophu inokukhusela unikezelo lwamandla ngaphandle kokunikezelwa kwamandla eRashiya", wachaza UProfesa Claudia Kemfert, INtloko yeSebe lezaMandla, ezoThutho kunye nokusiNgqongileyo kwiziko laseJamani loPhando lwezoQoqosho kwinkomfa yabezindaba ngoLwesine. “Oku kunokuphunyezwa ngontathu: ukuxutywa kwezinto ezisuka kumazwe angaphandle, ukonga amandla kunye nokwandiswa okunyanzeliswayo kwamandla ahlaziyekayo. Ingxaki ekhoyo ngoku kufuneka ibe luphawu lokuqala lweSivumelwano sokuHlaza esikhawulezileyo esiya kumandla avuselelekayo. "

ingcali yezoqoqosho UNjingalwazi uSigrid Stagl, INtloko yeZiko lokuQinisekisa uTshintsho kunye noxanduva (i-STAR) e-WU Vienna, iqinisekisile: “Utshintsho lwamandla olukhawulezileyo linzame zentsebenziswano eziya kuthi zibonakalise ukuba luncedo kwezoqoqosho kwixesha elide. Ukutshintshela kwizinto ezihlaziyiweyo kuluncedo kwezoqoqosho”

Imfazwe yaseUkraine ibonisa ukuba ingxamiseke kangakanani inguqu yamandla

Inkomfa yabezindaba yaququzelelwa yiNzululwazi ye-Future Austria kunye neDiskurs-Das Wissenschaftsnetzwerk. Ngelixa ukuhlasela kweRussia eUkraine kuveze ukuxhomekeka kwethu kunye nokuba sesichengeni kumafutha efosili, kudala kukho imfuneko yenguquko yokwenyani yamandla. Ukukhuselwa kwemozulu akufuni kuphela ukuphuma kwioli yaseRashiya kunye negesi, kodwa ukuhamba kakuhle kwioli kunye negesi ngokupheleleyo. Kwaye ngokukhawuleza kangangoko kunokwenzeka.

Ukhuseleko lwezicwangciso zobonelelo kufuneka luphuhliswe

UKemfert, okwangunjingalwazi wezoqoqosho lwamandla kwiYunivesithi yaseLeuphana eLüneburg nonenxaxheba kwiScientists for Future, uhlabela mgama esithi: “Ngenxa yokuvalwa umlomo kwamalahle nokuvalwa kweoli okuxoxwayo ngoku, iManyano yaseYurophu iyalwandisa uxinzelelo eRashiya. Nangona kunjalo, ekubeni ukuhanjiswa kwegesi yendalo yaseRashiya kusongelwa, izicwangciso zokhuseleko kufuneka ziphuhliswe. Kwakhona ngenxa yokuba iRashiya inokunciphisa unikezelo nangaliphi na ixesha.

Ukuphelisa amalahle kunye nokuphelisa amandla enyukliya kuhlala kusenzeka

Xa kuziwa kumbane, iJamani ibonisa ukuba kunyaka ozayo i-2023 unikezelo lwamandla olukhuselekileyo lunokwenzeka ngaphandle kokunikezelwa kwamandla aseRashiya. Ukuvalwa kwemizi-mveliso emithathu yokugqibela yamandla enyukliya kunokwenziwa kwaye kufanele ukuba kwenzeke njengoko bekucwangcisiwe kweyoMnga yowama-2022, kwaye injongo yesivumelwano sendibaniselwano yesigaba sokuqala sokuphela kwamalahle ngowama-2030 nayo isahleli ifikeleleka.

Uphelile ngo-2030: Iziko lombane elibaswa ngamalahle eScholven
Ifoto: Sebastian Schlueter nge Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Kukho amandla okugcina irhasi yendalo

Kwimeko yegesi yendalo (enezinye iindawo ezininzi zesicelo ngaphezu kokuveliswa kombane), ukuhanjiswa kwamanye amazwe athumela ngaphandle kwegesi yendalo, umz. B. Holland, uhlawule inxalenye ye-Russian exports. Imibhobho kunye neziseko zokugcina zingasetyenziswa ngokufanelekileyo. Kwicala lemfuno, kukho ukonga ixesha elifutshane elinokubakho kwi-19 ukuya kuma-26 ekhulwini. Kwixesha eliphakathi, ukutyhala kunikezelo lobushushu obunokuvuselelwa kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kwamandla kuyafuneka. Ukuba ugcino olunokubakho lusetyenziselwa ubuninzi kwaye kwangaxeshanye ukuhanjiswa kwamanye amazwe abonelela ngerhasi yendalo kwandiswa kangangoko kunokwenzeka, unikezelo lwaseJamani lwegesi yendalo lukhuselekile nangaphandle kokungeniswa ngaphandle kweRashiya kulo nyaka nakubusika obuzayo. 2022/23.

Ukulawula iziseko zophuhliso ngokufanelekileyo kwaye uhlengahlengise imfuno

Kuyo yonke iManyano yaseYurophu, unikezelo lwerhasi yendalo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku luxhomekeke kakhulu kubonelelo oluvela eRashiya. Oku kuxhomekeka kwakuphezulu kakhulu eJamani, eItali, eOstriya nakuninzi lwamazwe aseMpuma nakuMbindi Yurophu. Nangona kunjalo, igesi yendalo ayidlali indima ebalulekileyo ngokulinganayo kuzo zonke ezi zoqoqosho. Ubalo lwemodeli lubonisa ukuba i-European Union inokuhlawula inxalenye enkulu xa kwenzeka ukungaphumeleli okupheleleyo kokunikezelwa kwegesi yendalo yaseRashiya. Ngexesha elifutshane, kugxininiswa kulawulo olusebenzayo lweziseko ezingundoqo ezikhoyo, ukwahlukahlukana kweekhontrakthi zokuthengwa kwempahla kunye nemilinganiselo yokulungelelanisa imfuno. Iitheminali ezilungisiweyo ze-LNG ziya kuba nemveliso kuba ziya kudala utshixo. Iitheminali ezidadayo, kwelinye icala, zinokuba luncedo.

Kwakhona kubalulekile ukuqinisekisa ukulingana kwezentlalo. Ukunciphisa amaxabiso erhasi kuya kuba nemveliso njengoko kungayi kunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwamandla. Endaweni yoko, kufuneka kubekho ukunyuka kwengeniso kubantu abafumana umvuzo ophantsi ohlawulela iindleko ezongeziweyo.

Ukukhawulezisa ukwandiswa kwezinto ezihlaziyiweyo

Ngexesha eliphakathi, ukwandiswa kwamandla ahlaziyekayo kufuneka kukhawuleziswe kumxholo we-EU Green Deal, kubandakanywa nokupheliswa kwexesha lokusetyenziswa kwegesi yendalo yefosili, eya kuqinisa ngakumbi ukhuseleko lwamandla aseYurophu.

Stagl: I-Austria iphumle ixesha elide

UProf. Sigrid Stagl, okwalilungu lebhodi yeengcali zeScientists for Future Austria, uyaqhubeka nokugxeka iAustria ngokulinda ixesha elide:

“Ostriya waphumla ixesha elide kakhulu kwisabelo esiphezulu sohlaziyo ekwenziweni kombane kwaye wenza okuncinci kakhulu (1) ukunyusa ukongeza isabelo sohlaziyo kumbane kunye (2) nokulahla imithombo yamandla efosili yokufudumeza nokuhamba. Ukuze kugcinwe iindleko zoqoqosho eziphantsi, umntu kufuneka acwangcise kwangaphambili, avakalise amanyathelo ngexesha elifanelekileyo kwaye aphumeze ngokwesicwangciso sexesha elide elivunyelweneyo. Endaweni yoko, abenzi bezigqibo base-Austrian bakhetha ukutyhala iilevers ezinkulu ngasemva kwakhona kwaye benethemba lokuba oorhulumente bamva kunye nezizukulwana ezizayo ziya kuhlangabezana nazo. Ukucwangciswa kwexesha elide bekuya kuzinciphisa iindleko zoqoqosho, ekubeni zombini ishishini kunye nabantu babucala bebenokucwangcisa utshintsho kwangexesha. Ukwala ixesha elide ukwenza into elungileyo kusizise kule ngxaki ikhoyo ngoku.

Amanani alahlekile

Okwangoku akukho zifundo zifumanekayo esidlangalaleni okanye amanani anokuvumela uqikelelo oluchanekileyo ukuba lwenziwe ngokukhawuleza kwaye ngexabiso elingakanani i-Austria inokuphuma i-oyile kunye negesi yaseRussia. Ngoko ke, iingxelo ezichanekileyo, ezisekelwe kakuhle azinakwenzeka, ngokuqinisekileyo zishiya indawo eninzi yokuqikelela.

Sebenzisa amandla akhoyo ngokufanelekileyo

Yintoni eqinisekileyo kukuba ukuphuma kwimithombo yamandla efosili kuyafuneka eOstriya kukhuseleko lwemozulu kwaye okwangoku ifuneka ngokungxamisekileyo kumanyano. Ugayo olubanzi luyafuneka. Uloyiko aluyimfuneko, kodwa ukuqinisekiswa kuyingozi. Ngelishwa, amandla okuvelisa kunye neenkqubo zokufudumeza azikwazi ukutshintshwa ukusuka kwimini enye ukuya kolandelayo. Amanyathelo apheleleyo okusebenza kwamandla kwiinkampani, ukugqunywa kwe-thermal kwezakhiwo kunye nokutshintsha kwindlela yokuziphatha kunefuthe lexesha elifutshane kwaye kunokunciphisa okubonakalayo. Nangona kunjalo, kusekho imfuno eshiyekileyo ekufuneka ivele kweminye imithombo kwixesha elifutshane ukuze ikwazi ukuzimela kunikezelo lwamandla lwaseRussia kungekudala. Kuyo nayiphi na imeko, ukuhlanganiswa okubanzi kuyafuneka.

Isantya sesantya kunye nokwehliswa kwetrafikhi yomntu ngamnye konga ioyile

Ukutshintshwa kweoli kulula kakhulu e-Austria kunaseJamani. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, sifumene kuphela i-7% elungileyo yokusetyenziswa kwethu eRashiya. Iziseko zophuhliso azibangeli mngeni uthile xa kuziwa kwi-oyile kwaye ivumela ukutshintshwa ngokukhawuleza kweminye imithombo.Ngenxa yezizathu zokukhuselwa kwemozulu, ukonga okunokwenzeka (umzekelo, imida yesantya, imilinganiselo yokunciphisa izithuthi zabucala) kufuneka kuqala kwaye kuqala kusetyenziswe. Ngokutsho koMphathiswa wezaMandla uGewessler, iAustria yayeka ukuthenga ioli yaseRashiya ngoMatshi.

umfanekiso we UFeliks Müller phezu pixabay 

Utyalo-mali kwiziseko ezingundoqo zegesi elulwelo luya kusibophelela kumandla efosili ixesha elide

Imeko yegesi inzima kakhulu, efuna umbono ohlukeneyo weendawo ezahlukeneyo zokusetyenziswa kwegesi e-Austria. Ukongeza kwindawo yokufudumala, iindawo zokusetyenziswa ziquka ukupheka, iinkqubo zoshishino kunye nokuveliswa kwamandla. Apha, igesi inokutshintshwa ngokulula kwaye ngokukhawuleza ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo.

Irhasi yolwelo ebiza kakhulu idla ngokuziswa njengesisombululo sethutyana sokutshintsha irhasi yendalo yaseRashiya. Nangona kunjalo, oku kufuna isiseko esitsha sefosili (iitheminali zerhasi engamanzi) ngaphandle kweOstriya. Nangona kunjalo, ukutshintshwa okunjalo akuyi kuqhuba kuphela amaxabiso amandla, anokuthi abethe amakhaya ahluphekileyo ngakumbi kwaye abeke imiceli mngeni kukhuphiswano lweshishini lase-Austrian, kodwa kuya koyikwa ukuba utyalo-mali kule ndawo luya kulibazisa utshintsho lwamandla. Kubalulekile ke ngoko ukuba kungakhiwa naziphi na iziseko ezitsha zerhasi ne-oyile, ukuba kuyenzeka, ukuze kuthintelwe ukuxhomekeka kwindlela entsha yefosili.

Owona mlinganiselo ungcono kukugcina amandla

Nangona kunjalo, izisombululo zexeshana ezibizayo ezifana nerhasi elulwelo nazo zitshintshwa ngokukhawuleza ngakumbi lishishini. Nakuphi na ukulibaziseka ekunciphiseni ukukhutshwa ngenxa yokukhutshwa kwe-oyile kunye negesi yaseRashiya kufuneka ngoko kuhlawulelwe ngokutshintshela ngokukhawuleza kwizinto ezihlaziyiweyo. Owona mlinganiselo ulungileyo wonga amandla kwaye uhlala uhleli.

Umbane oluhlaza kushishino, ukuhamba, ukupheka kunye nokufudumeza

Ngexesha eliphakathi, i-100 lepesenti yobonelelo lwamandla luya kuvela kwimithombo yamandla ahlaziyekayo. Ngexesha elifanayo, ukuveliswa kwemveliso, ukuhamba, ukupheka kunye nokufudumeza kutshintshelwa kwiiteknoloji ezisekelwe kumbane. Ngokoqoqosho, olu tshintsho lunqweneleka amashumi eminyaka. Ubuchwephesha obuvuselelekayo ngoku butshiphu kakhulu kangangokuba bukwakhethwa ngokwezoqoqosho. Uphando olongezelelweyo luyafuneka, njengokuba amandla elanga anokugcinwa njani kungekuphela kwiibhetri kunye nehydrogen. Kwangaxeshanye, sidinga izakhiwo zentlalo kunye nenkuthazo yezoqoqosho eyenza isenzo esizinzileyo sibe lula kwaye sikhange. Into efunekayo kukucuthwa ngokukhawuleza kokusetyenziswa kwamandla ewonke ngama-25 ekhulwini kunye nokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwegesi ngama-25 ekhulwini ngokunjalo. Oku kufuneka kwenzeke malunga no-2027 okanye, ngomzamo omkhulu, ngo-2025. Uqeqesho olukhubekisayo lukwayimfuneko ukunyusa inani lamagcisa anobuchule.

Kufuneka unxibelelane kwakhona apho uhambo luhamba khona: Emva kwesigaba somzamo omkhulu, siya kuba namaxabiso aphantsi ombane, ixabiso elongeziweyo liya kuhlala elizweni kwaye siya kuxhomekeka kancinci.

Ifoto yeqweqwe: pxhere I-CC 0