Tlaleho: Phello e felletseng ea khase ea Russia e ka lokafatsoa moruong

ka Martin Auer

Ho felisoa ha khase ea tlhaho ea Russia ho tla ama moruo oa Austria joang? Tlaleho e sa tsoa hatisoa ke ba Complexity Science Hub Vienna ke1. Karabo ka bokhuts'oane: ea hlokomeleha empa ea laoleha haeba linaha tsa EU li sebetsa 'moho.

Austria e reka karolo ea 80 lekholong ea khase ea eona ea selemo le selemo Russia. EU ke karolo ea 38 lekholong. Khase e ka hloleha ka tšohanyetso, ebang ke hobane EU e beile thibelo ea ho reka kantle ho naha, kapa hobane Russia e emisitse ho romelloa kantle ho naha, kapa hobane liphaephe li sentsoe ke ntoa ea sesole Ukraine.

Tlaleho e hlahloba maemo a mabeli a ka hlahang: Ea pele e nka hore linaha tsa EU li sebetsa 'moho ho rarolla bothata hammoho. Boemo ba bobeli bo nka hore linaha tse amehileng li sebetsa ka bonngoe le ka mokhoa o sa lumellaneng.

Ka 2021 Austria e sebelisitse 9,34 billion cubic metres ea khase ea tlhaho. Haeba ho se na khase ea Russia, 7,47 limilione tse likete li tla be li le sieo. EU e ka reka 10 bcm e eketsehileng ka liphaephe tse teng le 45 bcm ka mokhoa oa LNG ho tsoa US kapa Gulf States. EU e ka nka 28 billion m³ ho tsoa litsing tsa polokelo. Haeba linaha tsa EU li ne li sebetsa 'moho ka mokhoa o hokahaneng, naha ka 'ngoe e ka be e haelloa ke karolo ea 17,4 lekholong ea tšebeliso ea eona ea pele. Ho Austria, sena se bolela ho tloswa ha 1,63 billion m³ selemong sena (ho tloha ka la 1 Phuptjane).

Boemong bo sa kopanngoeng, linaha tsohle tseo e leng litho li tla leka ho reka khase e sieo limmarakeng tsa machaba. Tlas'a monahano ona, Austria e ka etsa fantisi ea limilione tse likete tse 2,65 m³. Boemong bona, leha ho le joalo, Austria e ka lahla polokelo ea eona ka boeona mme e ka ntša chelete e eketsehileng ea 1,40 billion m³. Tlas'a boemo bona, Austria e ne e tla haelloa ke 3,42 bilione m³, e ka bang liperesente tse 36,6.

Boithuto bona bo nka hore 700MW ea limela tse fehlang matla a khase li ka fetoloa oli ka nako e khuts'oane, ho boloka karolo ea 10,3 lekholong ea tšebeliso ea khase ea selemo le selemo. Liphetoho tsa boitšoaro tse kang ho fokotsa mocheso oa kamore ka 1°C ho ka fella ka ho boloka chelete ea 0,11 bilione m³. Tšebeliso e fokotsehileng e ka boela ea fokotsa khase e hlokehang ho sebetsa meralo ea lipeipi ka 0,11 bcm.

Haeba linaha tsa EU li sebetsa 'moho, Austria e tla haelloa ke 0,61 billion m³ selemong se tlang, e leng liperesente tse 6,5 tsa tšebeliso ea selemo le selemo. Haeba naha ka 'ngoe e ne e ka ikemela, Austria e ne e tla haelloa ke 2,47 billion m³, e leng karolo ea 26,5 lekholong ea tšebeliso ea selemo le selemo.

Ka mor'a hore bareki ba sirelelitsoeng (malapa le lisebelisoa tsa motlakase) ba fanoe, khase e setseng e abeloa indasteri. Boemong bo hokahaneng, indasteri e ne e tla tlameha feela ho fokotsa tšebeliso ea eona ea khase ka liperesente tse 10,4 ha e bapisoa le boemo bo tloaelehileng, empa ka liperesente tse 53,3 maemong a sa lumellaneng. Tabeng ea pele, hoo ho ne ho tla bolela ho theoha ha tlhahiso ea karolo ea 1,9 lekholong, boemong bo bobe le ho feta, ka karolo ea 9,1 lekholong.

Litahlehelo, tlaleho e boletse, e tla ba tlase haholo ho feta phello ea moruo ea leqhubu la pele la Covid-19 boemong ba pele. Boemong ba bobeli, tahlehelo e ka bapisoa, empa e ntse e le nyane ho feta tahlehelo e tsoang ho leqhubu la pele la corona.

Tšusumetso ea thibelo ea ho kenya thepa ea khase e itšetlehile haholo ka mehato e nkiloeng. Joalo ka lintlha tsa bohlokoa, tlaleho e qotsa khokahano e pharalletseng ea EU ea leano la phepelo ea khase, ho itokisetsa ho fetolela limela tsa motlakase ho mafura a mang nakong ea lehlabula, likhothaletso bakeng sa ho fetola lits'ebetso tsa tlhahiso, likhothaletso bakeng sa ho fetola litsamaiso tsa ho futhumatsa, likhothaletso bakeng sa matsete a mahlale a matla a tsosolositsoeng, likhothaletso bakeng sa baahi ho kenya letsoho ka mafolofolo ho boloka khase.

Ka bokhutšoanyane, tlaleho e phethela ka ho re: "Ka lebaka la tšenyo e khōlō e bakiloeng ke ntoa, thibelo ea EU ka bophara ea ho kenya khase ea Russia e ka emela leano le atlehang moruong."

setšoantšo se ka ntle: Boevaya mashina: Mohaho o Moholo oa Gazprom Moscow, ka Wikimedia, CC-BY

1 Anton Pichler, Jan Hurt*, Tobias Reisch*, Johannes Stangl*, Stefan Thurner: Austria ntle le khase ea tlhaho ea Russia? Litlamorao tse lebelletsoeng moruong tsa ho emisa phepelo ea khase ka tšohanyetso le maano a ho li fokotsa.
https://www.csh.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-24-CSH-Policy-Brief-Gasschock-Fin-Kurzfassung-DE.pdf.
Tlaleho e felletseng:
https://www.csh.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-24-CSH-Policy-Brief-Gas-Shock-Long-Version-EN.pdf