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Chirevo: Chikamu chakazara chekubuda kweRussia gasi chingave chakakodzera hupfumi


naMartin Auer

Kubviswa kwegasi rechisikigo reRussia kwaizokanganisa sei hupfumi hweAustria? Chirevo chichangobva kuburitswa ne Complexity Science Hub Vienna kubudikidza1. Mhinduro muchidimbu: inooneka asi inodzoreka kana nyika dzeEU dzikashanda pamwechete.

Austria inopinza 80 muzana yegore negore yekushandisa gasi kubva kuRussia. EU inenge 38 muzana. Iyo gasi inogona kungoerekana yakundikana, kungave nekuti EU yakatemesa embargo, kana nekuti Russia yakamisa kutengesa kunze kwenyika, kana nekuti mapaipi akakuvadzwa nekunetsana kwemauto muUkraine.

Chirevo ichi chinoongorora maviri angangoitika mamiriro: Yekutanga inofungidzira kuti nyika dzeEU dzinoshanda pamwe chete kugadzirisa dambudziko pamwe chete. Chechipiri chiitiko chinofungidzira kuti nyika dzakakanganisika dzinoita imwe neimwe uye nenzira isina kurongeka.

Muna 2021 Austria yakashandisa 9,34 bhiriyoni cubic metres yegasi rechisikigo. Kana pasina gasi reRussia, 7,47 bhiriyoni ichave isipo. EU inogona kutenga mamwe 10 bcm kuburikidza nemapaipi aripo uye 45 bcm muchimiro cheLNG kubva kuUS kana Gulf States. EU inogona kutora 28 bhiriyoni m³ kubva munzvimbo dzekuchengetera. Kana nyika dzeEU dzikashanda pamwe chete nenzira yakarongeka, nyika imwe neimwe ingadai isina 17,4 muzana yekushandiswa kwayaimboita. KuAustria, izvi zvinoreva minus ye1,63 bhiriyoni m³ gore rino (kubva munaChikumi 1).

Mumamiriro ezvinhu asina kurongeka, nyika dzese dziri nhengo dzinoedza kutenga gasi rakarasika pamisika yepasi rose. Pasi pekufungidzira uku, Austria inogona kutengesa 2,65 bhiriyoni m³. Muchiitiko ichi, zvakadaro, Austria inogona kurasa chengetedzo yayo pachayo uye inogona kubvisa imwe bhiriyoni 1,40 m³. Pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu aya, Austria yaizoshaya 3,42 bhiriyoni m³, ingave 36,6 muzana.

Chidzidzo ichi chinofungidzira kuti 700MW yemagetsi anopisa gasi anogona kushandurwa kuita oiri munguva pfupi, kuchengetedza imwe 10,3 muzana yegore rinoshandiswa gasi. Kuchinja kwehunhu sekudzikisa tembiricha yemumba ne1°C kunogona kukonzera kuchengetedza 0,11 bhiriyoni m³. Iko kuderedzwa kwekushandisa kwaizoderedzawo gasi rinodiwa kushandisa pombi yekuvaka neimwe 0,11 bcm.

Kana nyika dzeEU dzikashanda pamwe chete, Austria ingadai isina kukwana 0,61 bhiriyoni m³ mugore rinouya, inova 6,5 muzana yekushandiswa kwepagore. Dai nyika imwe neimwe yaizoita yega, Austria ingadai isina kukwana 2,47 bhiriyoni m³, inova 26,5 muzana yekushandiswa kwegore.

Mushure mekunge vatengi vakachengetedzwa (dzimba nemagetsi emagetsi) vapihwa, gasi rinosara rinopihwa indasitiri. Mumamiriro ezvinhu akarongeka, indasitiri yaizongodzikisa kushandiswa kwayo kwegasi ne10,4 muzana kana ichienzaniswa neyakajairika, asi ne53,3 muzana mune isina kurongeka mamiriro. Muchiitiko chekutanga, izvo zvingareva kudonha mukugadzirwa kwe1,9 muzana, muchiitiko chakaipisisa, ne9,1 muzana.

Kurasikirwa, chirevo chakadaro, kungave kushoma zvakanyanya pane kukanganisa kwehupfumi kwekutanga kweCovid-19 mune yekutanga mamiriro. Muchiitiko chechipiri, kurasikirwa kwacho kungaenzaniswa, asi kuchiri kudiki pane kurasikirwa kubva kune yekutanga corona wave.

Kukanganisa kwekurambidzwa kwegasi kunobva kune zvakanyanya pamatanho anotorwa. Semapoinzi akakosha, chirevo chinonongedza EU-yakakura kurongeka kwegasi rekupa, kugadzirira kushandura magetsi magweta kune mamwe mafuta munguva yezhizha, zvinokurudzira zvekuchinja maitiro ekugadzira, zvinokurudzira zvekuchinja kupisa masisitimu, kukurudzira kwekudyara mumagetsi emagetsi anovandudzwa, zvinokurudzira. huwandu hwevanhu kuti vatore chikamu mukuchengetedza gasi.

Muchidimbu, mushumo wacho unopedzisa: "Nekuda kwekukuvadzwa kukuru kwakakonzerwa nehondo, EU-wide embargo yekupinza gasi reRussia inogona kumiririra hurongwa hwehupfumi."

mufananidzo webutiro: Boevaya mashina: Gazprom Main Building muMoscow, kuburikidza neWikimedia, CC-BY

1 Anton Pichler, Jan Hurt*, Tobias Reisch*, Johannes Stangl*, Stefan Thurner: Austria isina gasi rechisikigo reRussia? Zvinotarisirwa kukanganisa kwehupfumi kwekumira kwegasi kamwe kamwe uye nzira dzekudzidzikisa.
https://www.csh.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-24-CSH-Policy-Brief-Gasschock-Fin-Kurzfassung-DE.pdf.
Chirevo chizere:
https://www.csh.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-24-CSH-Policy-Brief-Gas-Shock-Long-Version-EN.pdf

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