Ngano ye "green growth"

naMartin Auer

Makore makumi mashanu adarika, bhuku rinotyisa rinonzi The Limits to Growth, rakagadzwa neClub of Rome uye rakagadzirwa kuMassachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), rakabudiswa. Vanyori vaitungamira vaive Donella naDennis Meadows. Kudzidza kwavo kwaive kwakavakirwa pakuenzanisa kwekombuta iyo yakagadzira zvakare hukama pakati pezvishanu zvepasi rose: maindasitiri, kukura kwevanhu, kushomeka kwekudya, kupera kwezviwanikwa, uye kuparadzwa kwenzvimbo. Muuyo wacho wakanga uri: “Kana wedzero yazvino uno yechiverengero chavagari vapasi chenyika, maindasitiri, kushatisa, kugadzirwa kwezvokudya uye kushandiswa kwezviwanikwa zvikapfuurira zvisingachinji, ganhuriro dzakakwana dzokukura pasi pano dzichasvikwa mukati memakore zana anotevera.1

Bhuku racho, maererano naDonella Meadows, "harina kunyorerwa kuporofita kuparadzwa, asi kupikisa vanhu kuti vawane nzira dzehupenyu dzinoenderana nemitemo yepasi."2

Kunyange zvazvo nhasi kune chibvumirano chikuru chokuti mabasa avanhu ane miuyo isingachinjiki pamhoteredzo, sokunyora kunoita magazini inonzi Nature muchinyorwa chayo chazvino uno.3, vatsvakurudzi vakakamurwa pamusoro pezvinogona kugadziriswa, kunyanya kana zvakakosha kuderedza kukura kwehupfumi kana kuti "kukura kwegirini" kunogoneka.

"Kukura kweGreen" zvinoreva kuti hupfumi hunowedzera ukuwo kushandiswa kwezviwanikwa kuchiderera. Kushandiswa kwezviwanikwa kunogona kureva kushandiswa kwemafuta efossil kana kushandiswa kwesimba zvakazara kana kushandiswa kwezvinhu zvakati mbishi. Chakanyanya kukosha ndechekudyiwa kwekabhoni bhajeti yasara, kudyiwa kwevhu, kuparara kwezvipenyu zvakasiyana-siyana, kushandiswa kwemvura yakachena, kuwandisa kwevhu nemvura nenitrogen nephosphorus, acidification yemakungwa uye kusvibiswa kwezvakatipoteredza nepurasitiki nezvimwe zvigadzirwa zvemakemikari.

Decoupling ehupfumi kukura kubva zviwanikwa kushandiswa

Pfungwa ye "kubvisa" kukura kwehupfumi kubva kune zviwanikwa zvekushandisa zvakakosha pakukurukurirana. Kana kushandiswa kwezvinhu kunowedzera pamwero wakafanana nekubuda kwehupfumi, ipapo kukura kwehupfumi uye kushandiswa kwezvinhu zvakabatanidzwa. Kana kushandiswa kwezviwanikwa kunowedzera zvishoma nezvishoma pane kubuda kwehupfumi, mumwe anotaura nezve "relative decoupling". Chete kana kushandiswa kwezvinhu inoderera, nepo hupfumi hunowedzera, munhu anogonamhedziso decoupling", uye ipapo chete munhu anogona kutaura nezve "girinhi kukura". Asi chete kana kushandiswa kwezviwanikwa kuchiderera kusvika pamwero unodiwa kuti uwane mamiriro ekunze uye zvipenyu zvakasiyana-siyana, maererano naJohan Rockström. Stockholm Resilience Center kururamiswa ne"chaiye kukura kwegirinhi"4 kutaura.

Rockstrom ichiunza iyo pfungwa yemiganhu yemapuraneti5 Co-developed inotenda kuti hupfumi hwenyika hunogona kukura nepo hutsi hwavo hwegreenhouse gasi huchidonha. Sezvo izwi rake rine huremu hukuru pasi rose, tichaenda mune zvakadzama nezve thesis yake pano. Anotaura nezvekubudirira kwenyika dzeNordic mukuderedza kuburitsa gasi regreenhouse. Mune chinyorwa chakanyorwa pamwe nePer Espen Stoknes6 kubva 2018 anogadzira tsananguro ye "yechokwadi yakasvibira kukura". Mumuenzaniso wavo, Rockström neStoknes zvinongoreva kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze nekuti kune zvinozivikanwa maparamita eizvi. Munyaya iyi chaiyo, ndeye hukama pakati pe CO2 emissions uye kukosha kwakawedzerwa. Kuti utsi huderere nepo kukosha kwakawedzerwa kuchiwedzera, kukosha kwakawedzerwa patani ye CO2 kunofanira kuwedzera. Vanyori vanofungidzira kuti kuderedzwa kwegore negore kwe CO2 emissions ye2015% kubva muna 2 inofanirwa kuitira kuti uwane chinangwa chekudziya pasi pe2 ° C. Ivo zvakare vanofungidzira kuwedzera kweavhareji yehupfumi hwenyika inobuda (iyo yepasi rose GDP kana chakakosha mumiti) ne3% pagore. Kubva pane izvi vanofungidzira kuti iyo yakawedzerwa kukosha patani ye CO2 emissions inofanira kuwedzera ne5% pagore kuitira kuti "kukura chaiko kwegirinhi" kuvepo.7. Vanotsanangura iyi 5% sefungidziro shoma uye ine tariro.

Muchinhanho chinotevera, vanoongorora kana kuwedzera kwakadaro kwekugadzirwa kwekabhoni (kureva kukosha kwakawedzerwa pa CO2 emissions) kwave kuwanikwa chero kupi, uye vanoona kuti Sweden, Finland neDenmark zvakave nekuwedzera kwegore negore mukugadzirwa kwekabhoni munguva. 2003-2014 5,7%, 5,5% ingadai yakasvika 5,0%. Kubva pane izvi vanotora mhedziso yekuti "kukura chaiko kwegirinhi" kunogoneka uye kunozivikanwa empirically. Vanofunga izvi mukana wekukunda-kukunda mamiriro, ayo anogonesa kuchengetedzwa kwemamiriro ekunze uye kukura, kuve kwakakosha kugamuchirwa kwezvematongerwo enyika kwekuchengetedzwa kwemamiriro ekunze uye kusimba. Muchokwadi, "kukura kwegirinhi" idonzvo kune vazhinji vanoita mitemo muEU, UN uye pasirese.

Muchidzidzo che20218 Tilsted et al. mupiro weStoknes uye Rockström. Pamusoro pazvo, vanoshoropodza chokwadi chekuti Stoknes neRockström vakashandisa kugadzirwa-kwakavakirwa nharaunda emissions, i.e. emissions inogadzirwa munyika pachayo. Izvi zvinoburitswa hazvisanganisire zvinobuda kubva kune dzimwe nyika kutakura uye mhepo traffic. Kana izvi zvinobuda zvakabatanidzwa mukuverenga, mhedzisiro yeDenmark, semuenzaniso, inoshanduka zvakanyanya. Maersk, kambani hombe yepasirese yezvikepe zvemidziyo, inogara muDenmark. Sezvo kukosha kwayo kwakawedzerwa kunosanganisirwa muDanish GDP, kuburitsa kwayo kunofanirwa kuverengerwa. Neizvi, zvakadaro, kufambira mberi kweDenmark mukuvandudza kabhoni goho inonyangarika zvakazara uye hapasisina mhedziso yekubatanidza zvakare.

Kana munhu akashandisa kushandiswa-kwakavakirwa panzvimbo yekugadzirwa-kwakavakirwa kuburitsa, mufananidzo unochinja zvakanyanya. Consumption-based emissions ndeiya inogadzirwa nekugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvinodyiwa munyika, zvisinei nechikamu chenyika chazvinogadzirwa. Mukuverenga uku, nyika dzese dzeNordic dzinotadza kusvika pa5% yekuwedzera kwepagore mukugadzirwa kwekabhoni inodiwa pa'kukura kwegirinhi chaiko'.

Imwe pfungwa yekutsoropodza ndeyekuti Soknes neRockström vakashandisa chinangwa che2 ° C. Sezvo njodzi dzekudziya kwe2°C dzakakura zvikuru kupfuura 1,5°C, chinangwa ichi chinofanira kushandiswa sechiyereso chekuderedza zvakakwana zvinobuda.

Zvipingamupinyi Zvinomwe Kukukura kweGreen

Muna 2019, iyo NGO European Environment Bureau yakaburitsa chidzidzo "Decoupling Debunked"9 ("Decoupling Unmasked") naTimothée Parrique nemamwe masayendisiti matanhatu. Mumakore gumi apfuura, vanyori vanocherekedza, "kukura kwegirinhi" kwakatonga marongero ehupfumi muUN, EU nedzimwe nyika dzakawanda. Aya mazano anobva pafungidziro isiriyo yekuti kukwana kwakakwana kunogona kuwanikwa kuburikidza nekuvandudzwa kwesimba rekushandisa chete, pasina kudzikisira kugadzirwa uye kushandiswa kwezvinhu zvehupfumi. Iko hakuna humbowo hunoratidza kuti kupatsanurana kwave kuwanikwa kwese kwakaringana kudzivirira kuparara kwezvakatipoteredza, uye zvinoita sekunge zvisingaite kuti kuparadzaniswa kwakadaro kugone kuitika mune ramangwana.

Vanyori vanotaura kuti nzira dziripo dzezvematongerwo enyika dzekuvandudza simba remagetsi dzinofanira kunge dzichienderana nematanho ekukwana.10 zvinoda kuwedzerwa. Zvinorehwa neizvi ndezvekuti kugadzirwa uye kushandiswa munyika dzakapfuma kunofanira kuderedzwa kusvika pachiyero chakakwana, chakakwana, chiyero umo hupenyu hwakanaka hunogoneka mukati memiganhu yepasi.

Muchirevo chechinyorwa ichi, vanyori vanotaura chidzidzo che "Global carbon kusaenzana" naHubacek et al. (2017)11: Chekutanga cheUN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) kubvisa hurombo. Muna 2017, hafu yevanhu vairarama nemari isingasviki madhora matatu pazuva. Iri boka remari rakakonzera 3 muzana chete yepasi rose yegreenhouse gasi. Chikamu chechina chevanhu chaigara pamadhora matatu kusvika kumadhora masere pazuva uye zvakakonzera 15 muzana yekubuda. CO3 footprint yavo pamunhu saka yaive yakakwira zvakapetwa katatu pane yeboka remari yakaderera. Saka kana mari yakaderera ichizokwidziridzwa kune imwe nhanho yepamusoro ne8, iyo chete (ine simba rakafanana resimba) inopedza 23 muzana yeCO2 bhajeti inowanikwa kune 2050 ° C chinangwa. The carbon footprint yepamusoro gumi muzana nemari inodarika madhora makumi maviri nematatu pazuva yaipfuura nekagumi pane yevarombo. (Onawo chinyorwa muCelsius: Vapfumi nemamiriro ekunze.)

Sekureva kwechikwata chaParrique, izvi zvinokonzeresa chisungo chakajeka chetsika kune nyika idzo kusvika parizvino dzakabatsirikana zvakanyanya kubva kuCO2 kusvibiswa kwemhepo kuderedza zvakanyanya kuburitsa kwavo kuitira kupa nyika dzeGlobal South nzira inodiwa yebudiriro.

Muchidimbu, vanyori vanotaura kuti kukwana kwakakwana hakugone kutsanangurwa munzvimbo dzekushandiswa kwezvinhu, kushandiswa kwesimba, kushandiswa kwevhu, kushandiswa kwemvura, kuburitsa gasi regreenhouse, kusvibiswa kwemvura kana kurasikirwa kwezvisikwa. Muzviitiko zvakawanda, kuparadzaniswa kunoenderana. Kana paine zvachose decoupling, ipapo chete pamusoro pfupi nguva uye munharaunda.

Vanyori vanotaura zvikonzero zvakati kuti zvinodzivirira kubvisa:

1. Kuwedzera kushandiswa kwesimba: Kana imwe sosi yakabviswa (kwete chete fossil mafuta, asiwo, semuenzaniso, ores), inotanga kubviswa kubva kwazvinogoneka nemutengo wakaderera uye kushandiswa kwesimba. Iyo yakawanda yezviwanikwa yakatoshandiswa, iyo yakanyanya kuoma, inodhura uye-yakanyanya simba ndeye kushandisa madhipoziti matsva, senge tar sand uye shale yemafuta. Kunyange marasha anokosha zvikuru, anthracite, akapotsa ashandiswa, uye nhasi marasha akaderera ari kucherwa. Muna 1930, mhangura yemhangura ine mhangura yemhangura ye 1,8% yakacherwa, nhasi chiyero chiri 0,5%. Kuti abudise zvinhu, zvinhu zvakapetwa katatu zvinofanirwa kutamiswa nhasi sezvazvaiitwa makore 100 apfuura. 1 kWh yesimba rinodzokororwa inoshandisa kagumi simbi kupfuura 10 kWh yefossil simba.
2. Rebound Effects: Kuvandudzwa mukushandiswa kwesimba kunowanzoita kuti kumwe kana kuti mari yose yasara ichidzikiswa kumwewo. Semuyenzaniso, kana mota ine mari yakawanda ichishandiswa kakawanda kana kuti mari inochengetwa kubva kumari shoma yesimba inoiswa mundege. Kunewo maitiro ekugadzirisa. Semuenzaniso, mamwe ehupfumi emukati emoto injini anogona kureva kuti mota-inorema yekufambisa sisitimu inodzika midzi uye kuti dzimwe nzira dzakasimba dzakaita sekuchovha bhasikoro nekufamba hazvipindike. Muindasitiri, kutengwa kwemichina inoshanda zvakanyanya kurudziro yekuwedzera kugadzirwa.
3. dambudziko rekuchinja: Magadzirirwo ehunyanzvi kudambudziko rezvakatipoteredza anogona kugadzira matambudziko matsva kana kuwedzera aripo. Mota dzemagetsi dzakavanzika dziri kuwedzera kudzvanywa pa lithium, cobalt uye madhipoziti emhangura. Izvi zvinogona kuwedzera kuwedzera matambudziko emagariro ane chekuita nekubviswa kwezvinhu izvi mbishi. Kucherwa kwepasi risingawanzo kukonzeresa kukanganisa kwakakomba kwezvakatipoteredza. Biofuels kana biomass yekugadzira simba ine kukanganisa kwakashata pakushandiswa kwevhu. Hydropower inogona kutungamira kune methane emissions apo kuunganidzwa kwematope kuseri kwemadhamu kuchikurudzira kukura kwealgae. Muenzaniso wakajeka wekuchinja kwedambudziko ndeuyu: Nyika yakakwanisa kuderedza kukura kwehupfumi kubva mukusvibiswa kwemanyowa ebhiza uye kudyiwa kwewhale blubber - asi nekungoitsiva nemamwe marudzi ekushandiswa kwechisikigo.
4. Migumisiro yehupfumi hwebasa inowanzotarisirwa pasi: Hupfumi hwebasa hunogona kungovapo pahwaro hwehupfumi hwezvinhu, kwete pasina. Zvigadzirwa zvisingabatike zvinoda chimiro chemuviri. Software inoda hardware. Imba yekumassage inoda imba inopisa. Avo vanoshanda mubato rebasa vanogamuchira mihoro yavanozoshandisa pazvinhu zvokunyama. Indasitiri yekushambadza uye mabasa emari anoshanda kukurudzira kutengeswa kwezvinhu. Chokwadi, makirabhu eyoga, varapi vevakaroora, kana zvikoro zvekukwira zvinogona kuisa dzvinyiriro shoma pane zvakatipoteredza, asi izvo hazvisungirwe futi. Maindasitiri ezveruzivo nekutaurirana ane simba-rakawanda: Indaneti chete inokonzera 1,5% kusvika 2% yekushandiswa kwesimba pasi rose. Shanduko yehupfumi hwebasa inenge yapera munyika zhinji dzeOECD. Uye idzi ndidzo chaizvo nyika dzine huwandu hwekushandisa-hwakavakirwa tsoka.
5. Mikana yekudzokorodza ishoma: Mitengo yekudzokorora pari zvino yakadzikira uye inongowedzera zvishoma nezvishoma. Kudzokorodza kuchiri kuda mari yakakosha musimba uye kudzoreredza midziyo. Zvishandiso. Zvishandiso zvinodzikira nekufamba kwenguva uye zvinofanirwa kutsiviwa nezvichangobva kucherwa. Kunyangwe neFairphone, iyo inonyanya kukoshesa dhizaini yayo modular, 30% yezvigadzirwa zvinogona kudzokororwa zvakanyanya. Masimbi asingawanzo aidiwa kugadzira uye kuchengetedza simba rinogoneka aingove 2011% yakadzokororwa zvakare muna 1. Zviri pachena kuti kunyangwe iyo yakanakisa kudzokorodza haigone kuwedzera zvinhu. Upfumi huri kuramba huchikura haugone kubudirira pazvinhu zvakashandiswa patsva. Zvinhu zvine mwero wakanakisa wekudzokorodza isimbi. Nekukura kwegore mukushandiswa kwesimbi kwe2%, matura epasirese esimbi achapedzwa mukati megore ra2139. Ikozvino chiyero chekudzokorora che 62% chinogona kunonoka iyo nzvimbo nemakore gumi nemaviri. Kana chiyero chekudzokorora chinogona kuwedzerwa kusvika pa12%, izvo zvinongowedzera mamwe makore manomwe12.
6. Iyo mitsva yetekinoroji haina kukwana: Kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji hakutarise zvinhu zvekugadzira zvakakosha pakuchengetedza kwezvakatipoteredza uye hazvitungamiri kune hutsva hunoderedza kudzvanywa kwezvakatipoteredza. Iyo haigone kutsiva mamwe, matekinoroji asingadiwe, uye haakurumidze zvakakwana kuti ave nechokwadi chekugadzirisa zvakakwana. Mafambiro mazhinji etekinoroji ane chinangwa chekuchengetedza vashandi nemari. Nekudaro, ndizvo chaizvo maitiro aya anotungamira kukuwedzera-kuwedzera mukugadzirwa. Kusvika ikozvino, magetsi anovandudzwa haasati atungamira mukudzikiswa kwefossil kushandiswa kwemafuta nekuti kushandiswa kwesimba kuri kukura zvachose. Renewables angori mamwe manyuko esimba.Kugoverwa kwemarasha mukushandiswa kwesimba repasi rose kwadzikira muzvikamu, asi kushandiswa kwemarasha zvachose kuri kuwedzera kusvika nhasi. Muhupfumi, hupfumi hwakatarisana nekukura, hutsva hunoitika pamusoro pezvese kana huchiunza purofiti. Naizvozvo, mitsva yakawanda inofambisa kukura.
7. kuchinja mari: Zvimwe zvinodaidzwa kunzi decoupling ingori shanduko mukukuvadzwa kwezvakatipoteredza kubva pakushandisa zvakanyanya kuenda kune nyika dzinoshandiswa zvishoma. Kutora iyo yekushandisa-yakavakirwa ecological footprint inopenda mufananidzo wakanyanya kushoma uye inomutsa kusahadzika nezve mukana wekubatanidzwa mune ramangwana.

Vanyori vanogumisa kuti vanotsigira "kukura kwegirinhi" vane zvishoma kana kuti hapana chinogutsa chekutaura pamusoro pezvibodzwa zvinomwe zvakanyorwa. Vagadziri vemitemo vanofanirwa kuziva chokwadi chekuti kugadzirisa mamiriro ekunze uye matambudziko ezvipenyu (anongori maviri ematambudziko akati wandei ezvakatipoteredza) zvinoda kudzikiswa kwekugadzirwa kwehupfumi uye kushandiswa munyika dzakapfuma. Vanosimbisa izvi, haisi rondedzero isinganzwisisiki. Mumakumi emakore achangopfuura, mafambiro emagariro muGlobal North akaronga kutenderedza pfungwa yekukwana: Transition Towns, degrowth movement, ecovillages, Slow Cities, kubatana kwehupfumi, Zvakajairika hupfumi hwakanaka mienzaniso. Zviri kutaurwa nemafambiro aya ndeizvi: zvakawanda hazvisi nani nguva dzose, uye zvakakwana zvakakwana. Sekureva kwevanyori vekudzidza, hazvifanirwe kudzoreredza kukura kwehupfumi kubva mukukuvadzwa kwezvakatipoteredza, asi kuti decouple kubudirira uye hupenyu hwakanaka kubva mukukura kwehupfumi.

VAKAONA: Renate Kristu
MUFANANIDZO IRI PAKAVHA: Montage naMartin Auer, mapikicha na Matthias Boeckel uye bluelightpictures Via Pixabay)

Mashoko emuzasi:

1Chikwata cheRome (2000): Iyo Miganhu yeKukura. Chirevo cheClub yeRome pamusoro pemamiriro evanhu. 17th edition Stuttgart: German publishing house, p.17

2https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00723-1

3ibid

4Stoknes, Per Espen; Rockström, Johan (2018): Kutsanangurazve kukura kwegirinhi mukati memiganhu yepuraneti. Mu: Energy Research & Social Science 44, mapeji 41-49. DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2018.04.030

5Rockstrom, Johan (2010): Planetary Boundaries. Mu: Maonero Matsva Quarterly 27 (1), pp. 72-74. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5842.2010.01142.x.

6ibid.

7Yakawedzerwa kukosha pachikamu cheCO2 inonzi kabhoni kugadzirwa, yakapfupikiswa CAPRO.
CAPRO = GDP/CO2 → GDP/CAPRO = CO2 .. Kana ukaisa 103 yeGDP uye 105 yeCAPRO, mhedzisiro ndeye 2 ye CO0,98095, i.e. kuderera kweanenge 2%.

8Tilsted, Joachim Peter; Bjorn, Anders; Majeau-Bettez, Guillaume; Lund, Jens Friis (2021): Nyaya dzeAccounting: Kuongororazve zvichemo zvekubvisa uye kukura kwegirinhi chaiko munyika dzeNordic. Mu: Ecological Economics 187, mapeji 1-9. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107101.

9Parrique T, Barth J, Briens F, Kerschner C, Kraus-Polk A, Kuokkanen A, Spangenberg JH (2019): Decoupling-Debunked. Humbowo uye nharo dzekupokana nekukura kwegirinhi senzira yega yekusimudzira. Brussels: European Environmental Bureau.

10Kubva kuChirungu Zvakakwana = zvakakwana.

11Hubacek, Klaus; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Feng, Kuishuang; Muñoz Castillo, Raúl; Sun, Laixiang; Xue, Jinjun (2017): Global carbon kusaenzana. Mu: Energy. Ecol. zvakatipoteredza 2 (6), mapeji 361-369. DOI: 10.1007/s40974-017-0072-9.

12Grosse, F; Mainguy, G. (2010): Kudzorerazve “chikamu chemhinduro”? Basa rekudzokorodza munharaunda iri kukura uye nyika ine zviwanikwa zvinogumira. https://journals.openedition.org/sapiens/906#tocto1n2