Migumisiro yemamiriro ekunze ehondo yenyukireya: Nzara yevanhu mabhiriyoni maviri kusvika mashanu

naMartin Auer

Mamiriro ekunze ehondo yenyukireya angakanganisa sei kudya kwepasi rose? Chikwata chekutsvagisa chinotungamirwa naLili Xia naAlan Robock vekuRutgers University vakaongorora mubvunzo uyu. the kudzidza ichangoburitswa mujenari Zvisikwa Chikafu veröffentlicht.
Utsi nechin’ai zvinobva mumaguta ari kutsva zvaizoita kuti denga risvibe, zvotonhodza zvikuru mamiriro ekunze, uye zvichikanganisa kugadzirwa kwezvokudya. Iko kuverenga kwemuenzaniso kunoratidza kuti vanhu vanosvika mabhiriyoni maviri vanogona kufa nekuda kwekushomeka kwezvokudya muhondo "ishoma" (semuenzaniso pakati peIndia nePakistan), uye kusvika kumabhiriyoni mashanu muhondo "huru" pakati peU.SA neRussia.

Vatsvakurudzi vakashandisa mamiriro ekunze, kukura kwezvirimwa uye mhando dzehove kuverenga kuti mangani macalorie aizowanikwa kuvanhu munyika imwe neimwe mugore rechipiri mushure mehondo. Mamiriro akasiyana-siyana akaongororwa. Hondo yenyukireya "inogumira" pakati peIndia nePakistan, semuenzaniso, inogona kupinza pakati pe5 ne47 Tg (1 teragram = 1 megaton) yesoti mu stratosphere. Izvi zvaizoguma nekudonha kwe1,5°C kusvika 8°C paavhareji tembiricha yepasi rose mugore rechipiri mushure mehondo. Zvisinei, vanyori vanotaura, kana hondo yenyukireya yatanga, zvingava zvakaoma kuibata. Hondo pakati peUS nevabatsiri vayo neRussia - iyo pamwe chete inobata zvinopfuura makumi mapfumbamwe muzana ezvombo zvenyukireya - inogona kuburitsa 90 Tg yesoot uye kudonha kwekushisa kwe150 ° C. Munguva yekupedzisira Ice Age 14,8 makore apfuura, tembiricha dzaive dzakapoteredza 20.000°C dzakaderera pane nhasi. Migumisiro yemamiriro ekunze ehondo yakadaro yaizodzikira zvishoma nezvishoma, yakagara kusvika kumakore gumi. Kutonhodza kwacho kwaizoderedzawo kunaya kwemvura munzvimbo dzine monsoon dzechirimo.

Tafura 1: Mabhomba eatomu mumaguta, simba rinoputika, kuuraya kwakananga nekuda kwekuputika kwebhomba uye nhamba yevanhu vari panjodzi yenzara mumamiriro ezvinhu akaongororwa.

Tafura 1: Iyo 5 Tg soot kusvibiswa kesi inoenderana neinofungidzira hondo pakati peIndia nePakistan muna 2008, umo divi rega rega rinoshandisa mabhomba makumi mashanu eHiroshima-saizi kubva kune yavo iripo.
Mhosva dze16 kusvika ku47 Tg dzinoenderana nehondo yekufungidzira pakati peIndia nePakistan nezvombo zvenyukireya zvavangave nazvo muna 2025.
Mhosva ine 150 Tg kusvibiswa inoenderana neinofungidzira hondo nekurwiswa kweFrance, Germany, Japan, Great Britain, USA, Russia neChina.
Nhamba dziri muchikamu chekupedzisira dzinotaura kuti vangani vanhu vaizofa nenzara kana vamwe vanhu vose vakadyiswa zvishoma 1911 kcal pamunhu. Iko kufungidzira kunofungidzira kuti kutengeserana kwenyika dzakawanda kwaparara.
a) Nhamba iri mumutsara / koramu yekupedzisira inowanikwa apo 50% yekugadzirwa kwechikafu inoshandurwa kuita chikafu chevanhu.

Kusvibiswa kweradioactive yenzvimbo yevhu nemvura iri pedyo nekuputika kwebhomba hakubatanidzwi muchidzidzo, fungidziro yacho saka inochengetedza zvakanyanya uye huwandu chaihwo hwevakabatwa hunenge hwakakwira. Kamwe kamwe, kutonhora kukuru kwemamiriro ekunze uye kudzikira kwechiedza chephotosynthesis (“chando chenyukireya”) zvaizokonzera kunonoka kuibva uye kuwedzera kutonhora kwezvidyarwa. Pakati nepakati nepamusoro, goho rekurima raizoderera kupfuura munzvimbo dzinopisa uye dzinopisa. Stratospheric pollution ine 27 Tg yeblack carbon ingaderedza goho neinopfuura 50% uye goho rehove ne20 kusvika 30% pakati nepamusoro-latitude kuchamhembe kwehemisphere. Kunyika dzine zvombo zvenyukireya dzinoti China, Russia, USA, North Korea neGreat Britain, macalorie anowanikwa akadzikira ne30 kusvika 86%, kuchamhembe kwenyika dzenyukireya Pakistan, India neIsrael ne10%. Pakazere, mune isingafungidzirwe mamiriro ehondo yenyukireya shoma, chikamu chimwe muzvina chevanhu chaizofa nenzara nekuda kwekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze; muhondo huru, mamiriro angangoita, pamusoro pe60% yevanhu vaizofa nenzara mukati memakore maviri. .

Chidzidzo ichi, chinofanira kusimbiswa, chinongoreva mhedzisiro isina kunanga pakugadzirwa kwechikafu kwekuvandudzwa kwehondo yenyukireya. Nekudaro, nyika dzine mhirizhonga dzichine mamwe matambudziko ekutarisana nawo, anoti dzakaparadzwa zvivakwa, kusvibiswa kweradioactive uye kukanganisa cheni dzekugovera.

Tafura 2: Shanduko mukuwanikwa kwemacalorie echikafu munyika dzine zvombo zvenyukireya

Tafura 2: China pano inosanganisira Mainland China, Hong Kong neMacao.
Lv = kutambisa chikafu mudzimba

Zvisinei, migumisiro yezvokudya haitsamiri chete pakushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kunokonzerwa. Kuverenga kwemuenzaniso kunobatanidza fungidziro dzakasiyana-siyana pamusoro pehuwandu hwezvombo zvakashandiswa uye soot inoguma nezvimwe zvinhu: Kutengeserana kwenyika dzakawanda kuchiri kuitika here, kuitira kuti kushomeka kwechikafu munharaunda kunogona kubhadharwa? Kugadzirwa kwezvokudya zvemhuka kuchatsiviwa chose kana kuti muchidimbu nekugadzirwa kwezvokudya zvevanhu here? Zvinoita here kudzivirira zvachose kana kuti chikamu chekudya kutambisa?

Mune "yakanakisa" nyaya yekusvibiswa ne5 Tg yesoot, goho repasi rose raizodonha ne7%. Kana zvakadaro, huwandu hwenyika zhinji hwaizoda macalorie mashoma asi hunenge huchiri nehwakakwana hwekuchengetedza basa ravo. Nekusvibiswa kwakanyanya, nyika zhinji dzepakati nepamusoro-soro dzinoziya nenzara kana dzikaramba dzichirima chikafu chemhuka. Kana kugadzirwa kwechikafu kwakadzikwa nepakati, dzimwe nyika dzepakati-latitude dzinogona kuramba dzichipa macalorie akakwana kune vanhu vadzo. Nekudaro, aya maavhareji kukosha uye mubvunzo wekugovera unoenderana nemagariro enyika uye neiyo iripo zvivakwa.

Nekusvibiswa kwe "avhareji" ye47 Tg soot, macalorie ezvokudya akakwana kune huwandu hwepasi rose aikwanisa kuvimbiswa chete kana kugadzirwa kwechikafu kwakachinjirwa kune 100% yekugadzirwa kwechikafu, pakanga pasina kuraswa kwechikafu uye chikafu chaiwanikwa chakagovaniswa zvakaringana pakati pehuwandu hwenyika. Pasina muripo wepasi rose, pasi pezvikamu makumi matanhatu kubva muzana zvevanhu vepasi rose vanogona kupihwa chikafu chakakwana. Mumamiriro ezvinhu akaipisisa akadzidzwa, 60 Tg yesoti mu stratosphere, kugadzirwa kwezvokudya zvepasi rose kwaizoderera ne150% uye munyika dzakawanda chete 90% yevanhu vaizorarama mugore rechipiri mushure mehondo.

Kunyanya kuderera kwegoho kunofungidzirwa kune vanotengesa chikafu vakakosha seRussia neUSA. Nyika idzi dzinogona kuita nezvinotemerwa kunze kwenyika, izvo zvingave nemhedzisiro yakaipa kune nyika dzinotemerwa kunze kwenyika muAfrica neMiddle East, semuenzaniso.

Muna 2020, zvichienderana nefungidziro, vanhu vari pakati pe720 ne811 miriyoni vakatambura nekushaya chikafu chinovaka muviri, kunyangwe chikafu chinodarika chakakwana chakagadzirwa pasi rose. Izvi zvinoita kuti zvive nyore kuti kunyangwe pakaitika njodzi yenyukireya, hapazovi nekugovewa kwakaenzana kwezvokudya, mukati kana pakati penyika. Kusaenzana kunobva mukusiyana kwemamiriro ekunze nehupfumi. Great Britain yaizova nekuderera kwakasimba kwegoho kupfuura India, semuenzaniso. France, parizvino mutengesi wezvekudya kunze kwenyika, angave aine chikafu chakawanda mumamiriro epasi nekuda kwekukanganisa kutengeserana kwenyika. Australia yaizobatsirwa nemamiriro ekunze anotonhorera angave akanyatsokodzera kurima gorosi.

Mufananidzo 1: Kudya kwekudya mu kcal pamunhu pazuva mugore re2 mushure mekusvibiswa kwesoti kubva kuhondo yenyukireya.

Mufananidzo 1: Mepu iri kuruboshwe inoratidza mamiriro ezvekudya muna 2010.
Koramu yekuruboshwe inoratidza nyaya yekuenderera mberi kwekudya kwezvipfuyo, chikamu chepakati chinoratidza nyaya ine 50% yefoshoro yekudya kwevanhu uye 50% yefoshoro, kurudyi kunoratidza nyaya isina zvipfuwo ine 50% yefororo yekudya kwevanhu.
Mamepu ese anobva pafungidziro yekuti hapana kutengeserana nedzimwe nyika asi kuti chikafu chinogovaniswa zvakaenzana mukati menyika.
Mumatunhu akaiswa girinhi, vanhu vanogona kuwana chikafu chakakwana kuti vaenderere mberi nemitambo yavo yemuviri semazuva ese. Mumatunhu akaiswa yero, vanhu vaionda uye vaigona kuita basa rekugara. Tsvuku inoreva kudya kwekoriori kushoma pane basal metabolic rate, zvichitungamira kurufu mushure mekuderera kwezvitoro zvemafuta uye mhasuru dzinoshanda.
150 Tg, 50% tsvina zvinoreva kuti 50% yechikafu chakaraswa mumba chiripo chekudya, 150 Tg, 0% tsvina zvinoreva kuti chikafu chese chakaraswa chiripo chekudya kunovaka muviri.
Graphic kubva ku: Kusachengeteka kwechikafu chepasi rose uye nzara kubva mukuderedzwa kwechirimwa, hove dzemugungwa uye kugadzirwa kwezvipfuyo nekuda kwekukanganiswa kwemamiriro ekunze kubva muhondo yenyukireya soot jekiseni., CC BY SA, shanduro MA

Zvimwewo mukugadzirwa kwechikafu zvakaita semhando dzisingatonhore, howa, masowe emugungwa, mapuroteni anobva kuprotozoa kana tumbuyu nezvimwe hazvina kutariswa muchidzidzo. Zvingave zvakaomesesa kugadzirisa kuchinjika kunzvimbo dzekudya zvakadaro nenguva. Chidzidzo ichi zvakare chinongoreva macalorie ekudya. Asi vanhu vanodawo mapuroteni uye micronutrients. Saka zvakawanda zvinoramba zvakavhurika kune zvimwe zvidzidzo.

Chekupedzisira, vanyori vanosimbisa zvakare kuti mhedzisiro yehondo yenyukireya - kunyangwe yakaganhurirwa - ingave njodzi kune kuchengetedzwa kwechikafu pasi rose. Mabhirioni maviri kusvika mashanu vanhu vanogona kufa kunze kwenhandare yehondo. Mhedzisiro iyi humwe humbowo hwekuti hondo yenyukireya haikundwe uye haifanire kurwiwa.

Mufananidzo webutiro: 5ofnovember kuburikidza deviantart
Akaonekwa: Verena Winiwarter