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Economists Kemfert, Stagl: Inogonawo kuitwa pasina mafuta eRussia uye gasi


naMartin Auer

"Europe inogona kuchengetedza simba rekupa kunyangwe pasina magetsi eRussia ", akatsanangura Muzvinafundo Claudia Kemfert, Musoro weDhipatimendi reMagetsi, Kutakurwa uye Zvakatipoteredza kuGerman Institute for Economic Research pamusangano wevatori venhau neChina. "Izvi zvinogona kuitwa netriad: kusiyanisa kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, kuchengetedza simba uye kuwedzera kwekumanikidza kwesimba rinogoneka. Dambudziko riripo rinofanirwa kunge riri chiratidzo chekutanga chekuwedzera Green Deal kune mamwe masimba anogona kuvandudzwa. "

economist Muzvinafundo Sigrid Stagl, Musoro weCompetence Center Sustainability Shanduko uye Mutoro (STAR) kuWU Vienna, akasimbisa: "Kukurumidzira shanduko yesimba ibasa rekubatana rinozoratidza kubatsira mune zvehupfumi mukufamba kwenguva. Kuchinjira kune zvinogadzirwazve kwakakosha mune zveupfumi”

Hondo yeUkraine inoratidza kuti nekukurumidza sei shanduko yesimba

Musangano wevatori venhau wakarongwa nemaSainzi eFuture Austria uye Diskurs-Das Wissenschaftsnetzwerk. Nepo kurwisa kweRussia kuUkraine kwakafumura kutsamira kwedu uye kusadzivirirwa kwemafuta efosil, kwave nenguva kudiwa shanduko chaiyo yesimba. Kudzivirirwa kwemamiriro ekunze kunoda kwete chete kubuda kubva kuRussia oiri uye gasi, asi kuoneka kuoiri uye gasi zvachose. Uye nokukurumidza sezvinobvira.

Chengetedzo yezvirongwa zvekugovera inoda kugadzirwa

Kemfert, uyo ariwo purofesa wezvehupfumi hwemagetsi paLeuphana University muLüneburg uye anoshanda nesangano rinonzi Scientists for Future, anoenderera mberi achiti: “Nekurambidzwa kwemarasha uye kurambidza oiri kuri kukurukurwa iye zvino, European Union iri kuwedzera kumanikidza Russia. Nekudaro, sezvo kuburitswa kwegasi rechisikigo reRussia kuri kutyisidzirwa, zvirongwa zvekuchengetedza zvekuchengetedza zvinofanirwa kugadzirwa. Zvakare nekuti Russia yaigona kucheka kupihwa chero nguva.

Kubvisa marasha uye kupedza simba renyukireya kunoramba kuchikwanisika

Kana zvasvika kumagetsi, Germany inoratidza kuti mugore rinouya 2023 simba rakachengeteka rinogoneka kunyange pasina simba reRussia. Kuvharwa kwemagetsi matatu ekupedzisira emagetsi enyukireya kunogona uye kunofanira kuitika sezvakarongwa muna Zvita 2022, uye chinangwa chechibvumirano chemubatanidzwa chechikamu chekutanga-chekubuda kwemarasha panosvika 2030 zvakare chinoramba chichiitika.

Pakazobuda muna 2030: Scholven marasha anopisa magetsi
Mufananidzo: Sebastian Schlueter kuburikidza Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Pane kuchengetedza gasi rechisikigo

Kana iri gasi rechisikigo (rine dzimwe nzvimbo dzakawanda dzekushandiswa pamwe chete nekugadzirwa kwemagetsi), kutakura kubva kune dzimwe nyika dzinotengesa gasi kunze kwenyika, semuenzaniso. B. Holland, kubhadhara chikamu cheRussia kunze kwenyika. Pipeline uye zvigadziriso zvekuchengetedza zvinogona kushandiswa zvakanyanya. Padivi rekuda, pane mukana wenguva pfupi wekuchengetedza we19 kusvika 26 muzana. Munguva yepakati, kusundidzira kune inodzokororwa kupisa kwekupa uye yakanyanya kunaka simba inodiwa. Kana mari inogona kuchengetwa ikashandiswa kusvika pakakwirira uye panguva imwe chete kutakura kubva kune dzimwe nyika dzinopa gasi kuchiwedzerwa kusvika pazvinobvira tekinoroji, kupihwa kweGerman kwegasi rechisikigo kunochengetedzwa kunyangwe pasina kutengeswa kweRussia mugore razvino uye munguva yechando iri kuuya. 2022/23.

Tonga zvivakwa zvakanyanya uye gadzirisa zvinodiwa

KuEuropean Union yese, kuwanikwa kwegasi rechisikigo kusvika pari zvino kwakavimba zvakanyanya pakuburitswa kubva kuRussia. Kutsamira uku kwainyanya kukwira muGermany, Italy, Austria nedzimwe nyika zhinji dziri muEastern neCentral Europe. Zvakadaro, gasi rechisikigo harina basa rakakosha zvakaenzana mune zvese izvi hupfumi. Kuverenga kwemuenzaniso kunoratidza kuti European Union inogona kubhadhara chikamu chikuru kana chiitiko chekukundikana kwakakwana kweRussia gasi rinowanikwa. Munguva pfupi, chinotariswa chiri pakutonga kwakanaka kwezvivakwa zviripo, kusiyanisa kwezvibvumirano zvekutenga uye matanho ekugadzirisa zvinodiwa. Yakagadziriswa LNG zviteshi zvingave zvisingabatsiri nekuti ivo vaizogadzira kukiya-mukati. Zviteshi zvinoyangarara, kune rumwe rutivi, zvinogona kubatsira.

Zvakakoshawo kuve nechokwadi chekugarisana kwevanhu. Capping gasi mitengo ingadai isingaite sezvo isingaderedze kushandiswa kwesimba. Pane kudaro, panofanira kunge kune kuwedzera kwemari kune vanhu vane mari shoma inobvisa mari yakawedzerwa.

Kurumidza kuwedzera kwezvinovandudzwa

Munguva yepakati, kuwedzera kwesimba rinodzokororwa kunofanirwa kukwidziridzwa mumamiriro eEU Green Deal, kusanganisira kupedzwa panguva yekushandiswa kwefossil gasi rechisikigo, izvo zvaizowedzera kusimbisa kuchengetedzwa kwesimba reEuropean.

Stagl: Austria yanga ichizorora kwenguva yakareba

Prof. Sigrid Stagl, ari zvakare nhengo yebhodhi remazvikokota reScientists for Future Austria, anoenderera mberi nekushoropodza kumirira kweAustria kwenguva yakareba:

"Austria yakazorora kwenguva yakareba pachikamu chepamusoro chezvekugadziridzwa mukugadzirwa kwemagetsi uye haina kuita zvishoma ku (1) kuwedzera mugove wezvinovandudzwa mumagetsi uye (2) kubvisa zvisaririra zvesimba rekudziya uye kufamba. Kuti uchengetedze mari yehupfumi yakaderera, munhu anofanira kunge akaronga mberi, akazivisa matanho munguva yakanaka uye akaashandisa maererano nehurongwa hwenguva refu hwakabvumirana. Panzvimbo iyoyo, veAustria vanoita sarudzo vakasarudza kusundira mareti makuru kumashure zvakare uye netarisiro yekuti hurumende dzinozotevera nezvizvarwa zvinotevera zvichazvigadzirisa. Kuronga kwenguva yakareba kwenguva yakareba kungadai kwakaderedza mutengo wehupfumi, sezvo vese maindasitiri nevanhu vakazvimirira vaigona kuronga shanduko nenguva yakanaka. Kuramba kwenguva refu kuita zvakanaka kwakatipinza mudambudziko riripo.

Nhamba dzacho hadzipo

Parizvino hapana zvidzidzo kana manhamba anowanikwa pachena anogona kubvumira fungidziro kuti iitwe nekukurumidza uye nemubhadharo wei Austria inogona kubuda muoiri negesi yeRussia. Nokudaro, mashoko chaiwo, ane nheyo dzakasimba hazvibviri, izvo zvechokwadi zvinosiya nzvimbo yakawanda yekufungidzira.

Shandisa simba riripo zvakanyanya

Chii chine chokwadi ndechekuti kubuda kubva kune zvisaririra zvesimba masosi kunodiwa zvakare muAustria kuchengetedza mamiriro ekunze uye iko zvino kuri kudiwa nekukurumidza mukubatana. Kuunganidza kwakadzama kunodiwa. Kuvhunduka hakudi, asi kusimbiswa kunokuvadza. Nehurombo, hunyanzvi hwekugadzira uye masisitimu ekudziya haagone kuchinjwa kubva kune rimwe zuva kuenda kune rinotevera. Matanho akazara ekugadzirisa simba mumakambani, kupisa kwekupisa kwezvivakwa uye shanduko mumafambiro ane mhedzisiro yenguva pfupi uye ane hukuru hwekudzikisa. Nekudaro, kune kwasara kudiwa kwasara kunofanirwa kubva kune mamwe masosi munguva pfupi kuitira kuti ive yakazvimirira kubva kuRussia magetsi ekushandisa munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Chero zvazvingava, kuunganidza kwakakwana kunodiwa.

Yekumhanyisa miganho uye kudzikiswa mune yega traffic chengetedza mafuta

Kutsiviwa kwemafuta kuri nyore muAustria kupfuura kuGermany. Kusvika ikozvino, takangowana yakanaka 7% yekushandiswa kwedu kubva kuRussia. Zvivakwa hazvikonzeri dambudziko kana zvasvika kune oiri uye zvinobvumira kukurumidza kutsiva kubva kune dzimwe nzvimbo Nekuda kwezvikonzero zvekudzivirira kwemamiriro ekunze, mukana wekuchengetedza (semuenzaniso miganhu yekumhanyisa, matanho ekuderedza zvifambiso zvega) zvinofanirwa kutanga zvashandiswa. Sekureva kweGurukota reMagetsi Gewessler, Austria yakamira kutenga oiri yeRussia munaKurume.

mufananidzo we Felix Mueller pamusoro Pixabay 

Kudyara mumagetsi gasi zvivakwa kwaizotisunga kune fossil simba kwenguva yakareba

Mamiriro egasi akanyanya kuoma, izvo zvinoda maonero akasiyana enzvimbo dzakasiyana dzekushandisa gasi muAustria. Pamusoro pekudziya kwenzvimbo, nzvimbo dzekushandisa dzinosanganisira kubika, maindasitiri maitiro uye kugadzira magetsi. Pano, gasi rinogona kuchinjwa nyore nyore uye nekukurumidza nenzira dzakasiyana.

Gasi remvura rinodhura rinowanzounzwa mukutamba semhinduro yenguva pfupi yekutsiva gasi rechisikigo reRussia. Nekudaro, izvi zvinoda hutsva hwefossil (liquefied gasi terminals) kunze kweAustria. Nekudaro, kutsiva kwakadaro hakungokonzerese mitengo yemagetsi, izvo zvinogona kurova dzimba dzevarombo zvakanyanya kuomarara uye kuunza matambudziko mukukwikwidza kweindasitiri yeAustria, asi zvinofanirwa kutyirwa kuti kusima mari munzvimbo ino kunonotsa shanduko yesimba. Saka zvakakosha kuti tisavake chero zvivakwa zvitsva zvegasi neoiri, kana zvichibvira, kuitira kudzivirira kutsamira kwefossil nzira itsva.

Chiyero chakanakisa ndechekuchengetedza simba

Nekudaro, zvinodhura zvenguva pfupi mhinduro senge gasi remvura iri zvakare kutsiviwa zvakanyanya nekukurumidza neindasitiri. Chero kunonoka mukudzikisira emission kunokonzerwa nechikamu-kunze kweRussia oiri uye gasi zvinofanirwa kubhadharwa nekuchimbidza chinja kune anovandudza. Chiyero chakanakisa uye chinoramba chiri kuchengetedza simba.

Magetsi eGreen eindasitiri, kufamba, kubika nekudziya

Munguva yepakati, chikamu che100 muzana chemagetsi chichabva kumagetsi emagetsi anovandudzwa. Panguva imwecheteyo, kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri, kufamba, kubika uye kupisa kuri kuchinjirwa kune magetsi-based technologies. Nezvehupfumi, shanduko iyi yave ichidikanwa kwemakumi emakore. Renewable matekinoroji ikozvino zvakachipa zvekuti ivo zvakare vari nani mune zvehupfumi. Kutsvakurudza kwakawanda kunodiwa, sekuti simba rezuva rinogona kuchengetwa sei kwete mumabhatiri uye hydrogen chete. Panguva imwecheteyo, tinoda zvimiro zvemagariro uye zvinokurudzira zvehupfumi izvo zvinoita kuti chiito chekugara chive nyore uye chinokwezva. Chinodiwa kuderedzwa nokukurumidza kwesimba rose rinoshandiswa ne25 muzana uye kuderedza kushandiswa kwegasi ne25 muzana zvakare. Izvi zvinofanirwa kunge zvichigoneka kunosvika 2027 kana, nekuedza kukuru, panosvika 2025. Kudzidzira kunogumbura kunodiwawo kuwedzera huwandu hwevanokwanisa matekiniki.

Iwe unofanirwawo kutaurirana kune rwendo rwuri kuenda: Mushure mechikamu chekuedza kukuru, tingave nemitengo yakaderera yemagetsi, kukosha kwakawedzerwa kwaizoramba kuri munyika uye isu tingadai tisina kutsamira.

Mufananidzo webutiro: pxhere CC 0

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