Nthano ya "green kukula"

Wolemba Martin Auer

Zaka makumi asanu zapitazo, buku lochititsa chidwi kwambiri Limits to Growth, lolamulidwa ndi Club of Rome ndipo linapangidwa ku Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), linasindikizidwa. Olemba otsogolera anali Donella ndi Dennis Meadows. Kafukufuku wawo adatengera kuyerekeza kwapakompyuta komwe kunayambitsanso ubale womwe ulipo pakati pa zochitika zisanu zapadziko lonse lapansi: kutukuka kwa mafakitale, kuchuluka kwa anthu, kuperewera kwa zakudya m'thupi, kutha kwa zinthu zachilengedwe, komanso kuwonongeka kwa malo okhala. Chotulukapo chake chinali chakuti: “Ngati chiwonjezeko chamakono cha chiŵerengero cha anthu padziko lonse, kutukuka kwa mafakitale, kuipitsa, kupangidwa kwa chakudya ndi kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwa zinthu zachilengedwe zipitirizabe kosasintha, malire otheratu a chiwonjezeko padziko lapansi adzafikiridwa m’kati mwa zaka zana zikubwerazi.1

Bukulo, malinga ndi Donella Meadows, “si linalembedwa kuti lilosere chiwonongeko, koma kutsutsa anthu kuti apeze njira za moyo zomwe zimagwirizana ndi malamulo a dziko lapansi.2

Ngakhale kuti masiku ano pali mgwirizano waukulu wakuti zochita za anthu zili ndi zotsatirapo zosasinthika pa chilengedwe, monga momwe magazini ya Nature ikulembera m’kope lake laposachedwapa.3, ofufuza amagawidwa pazifukwa zomwe zingatheke, makamaka ngati kuli kofunikira kuchepetsa kukula kwachuma kapena ngati "kukula kobiriwira" n'kotheka.

"Kukula kobiriwira" kumatanthauza kuti kutulutsa kwachuma kumawonjezeka pomwe kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwazinthu kumachepa. Kugwiritsa ntchito zinthu kungatanthauze kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta oyambira pansi pa nthaka kapena kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu nthawi zonse kapena kugwiritsa ntchito zinthu zina. Chofunika kwambiri ndicho kugwiritsa ntchito bajeti yotsala ya carbon, kudya nthaka, kutayika kwa mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya zamoyo, kumwa madzi aukhondo, kuthira nthaka ndi madzi mopitirira muyeso ndi nayitrogeni ndi phosphorous, acidification wa m’nyanja ndi m’nyanja. kuwononga chilengedwe ndi pulasitiki ndi mankhwala ena.

Kuchepetsa kukula kwachuma pakugwiritsa ntchito zinthu

Lingaliro la "kuchepetsa" kukula kwachuma kuchokera kuzinthu zogwiritsidwa ntchito ndizofunikira pazokambirana. Ngati kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwazinthu kumawonjezeka pamlingo wofanana ndi kutulutsa kwachuma, ndiye kuti kukula kwachuma ndi kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwazinthu kumagwirizanitsidwa. Pamene kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa chuma kumawonjezeka pang'onopang'ono kusiyana ndi kutulutsa kwachuma, munthu amalankhula za "relative decoupling". Pokhapokha ngati kugwiritsa ntchito chuma amachepetsa, pamene kutulutsa kwachuma kumawonjezeka, munthu angathemtheradi decoupling ", ndipo pokhapo munthu angalankhulenso za "kukula kobiriwira". Koma kokha ngati kugwiritsa ntchito chuma kumachepetsa mpaka kufika pamlingo wofunikira kukwaniritsa zolinga za nyengo ndi zamoyo zosiyanasiyana, malinga ndi Johan Rockström. Stockholm Resilience Center kulungamitsidwa ndi "zenizeni kukula kwa green"4 kuyankhula.

Rockstrom ikuyambitsa lingaliro la malire a mapulaneti5 Co-developed amakhulupirira kuti chuma cha dziko chikhoza kukula pamene mpweya wawo wowonjezera kutentha ukutsika. Popeza mawu ake ndi olemera kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, tifotokoza mwatsatanetsatane za chiphunzitso chake pano. Akunena za kupambana kwa mayiko a Nordic pochepetsa mpweya woipa wa mpweya. M'nkhani yolembedwa ndi Per Espen Stoknes6 kuchokera ku 2018 akupanga tanthauzo la "kukula kwenikweni kobiriwira". Muchitsanzo chawo, Rockström ndi Stoknes amangotanthauza kusintha kwa nyengo chifukwa pali magawo odziwika a izi. Pankhani imeneyi, ndi za ubale pakati pa mpweya wa CO2 ndi mtengo wowonjezera. Kuti mpweya uchepe pamene mtengo wowonjezera ukuwonjezeka, mtengo wowonjezeredwa pa toni ya CO2 uyenera kuwonjezeka. Olembawo akuganiza kuti kuchepetsa mpweya wa CO2 pachaka wa 2015% kuchokera ku 2 ndikofunikira kuti akwaniritse cholinga cha kutentha pansi pa 2 ° C. Amaganiziranso kuwonjezeka kwachuma kwapadziko lonse lapansi (GDP yapadziko lonse lapansi kapena mawerengedwe akagawidwe kazopanga komweko) ndi 3% pachaka. Kuchokera apa apeza kuti mtengo wowonjezera pa toni imodzi ya mpweya wa CO2 uyenera kuwonjezeka ndi 5% pachaka kuti "kukula kwenikweni kobiriwira" kukhalepo.7. Amalongosola 5% iyi ngati lingaliro lochepa komanso lokhala ndi chiyembekezo.

Mu sitepe yotsatira, akuwunika ngati kuwonjezeka koteroko kwa kutulutsa mpweya wa carbon (ie mtengo wowonjezera pa mpweya wa CO2) wathekadi kulikonse, ndikupeza kuti Sweden, Finland ndi Denmark zinali ndi kuwonjezeka kwapachaka kwa carbon mu nthawi. 2003-2014 5,7%, 5,5% akanafika 5,0%. Kuchokera apa amapeza mfundo yakuti "kukula kwenikweni kobiriwira" ndikotheka komanso kodziwika bwino. Amawona kuti kuthekera kopambana kopambana, komwe kumathandizira kuteteza nyengo ndi kukula, kukhala kofunikira pakuvomereza ndale zachitetezo cha nyengo ndi kukhazikika. M'malo mwake, "kukula kobiriwira" ndikofunikira kwa opanga mfundo zambiri ku EU, UN ndi padziko lonse lapansi.

Mu kafukufuku wa 20218 Tilsted et al. chopereka cha Stoknes ndi Rockström. Koposa zonse, amatsutsa mfundo yakuti Stoknes ndi Rockström agwiritsa ntchito mpweya wopangidwa ndi madera opangidwa ndi madera, mwachitsanzo, mpweya umene umapangidwa m'dziko lomwelo. Kutulutsa kumeneku sikumaphatikizapo utsi wochokera ku zombo zapadziko lonse lapansi ndi kuchuluka kwa ndege. Ngati zotulutsa izi zikuphatikizidwa pakuwerengera, zotsatira za Denmark, mwachitsanzo, zikusintha kwambiri. Maersk, kampani yayikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi yonyamula katundu, ili ku Denmark. Monga mtengo wake wowonjezeredwa ukuphatikizidwa mu Danish GDP, zotulutsa zake ziyeneranso kuphatikizidwa. Komabe, ndi izi, kupita patsogolo kwa Denmark pakukula kwa kaboni kumatha pafupifupi kotheratu ndipo palibenso kuchotseratu mtheradi.

Ngati wina akugwiritsa ntchito motengera zomwe amadya m'malo motulutsa mpweya wopangidwa, chithunzicho chimasintha kwambiri. Utsi wopangidwa ndi kagwiritsidwe ntchito ndi womwe umapangidwa popanga zinthu zomwe zimadyedwa mdziko muno, mosasamala kanthu kuti zimapangidwira kudera liti padziko lapansi. Pakuwerengera uku, mayiko onse a ku Nordic akulephera kufika pa 5% yowonjezera pachaka ya carbon yomwe ikufunika kuti 'kukula kobiriwira'.

Mfundo ina yotsutsa ndi yakuti Soknes ndi Rockström agwiritsa ntchito cholinga cha 2 ° C. Popeza kuopsa kwa kutentha kwa 2°C kuli kokulirapo kuposa 1,5°C, cholinga chimenechi chiyenera kugwiritsidwa ntchito ngati chizindikiro chochepetsera mpweya wokwanira.

Zopinga Zisanu ndi Ziwiri Zolepheretsa Kukula Kobiriwira

Mu 2019, bungwe la NGO European Environment Bureau lidatulutsa kafukufuku "Decoupling Debunked"9 (“Decoupling Unmasked”) yolembedwa ndi Timothée Parrique ndi asayansi ena asanu ndi mmodzi. M'zaka khumi zapitazi, olembawo amati, "kukula kobiriwira" kwalamulira njira zachuma ku UN, EU ndi mayiko ena ambiri. Njirazi zimachokera ku lingaliro lolakwika kuti kugawanika kokwanira kungathe kupezedwa mwa kupititsa patsogolo mphamvu zowonjezera mphamvu zokha, popanda kuchepetsa kupanga ndi kugwiritsa ntchito katundu wachuma. Palibe umboni wotsimikizirika wosonyeza kuti kupatukana kwatheka kulikonse kokwanira kuti tipewe kuwonongeka kwa chilengedwe, ndipo zikuwoneka kuti n’zokayikitsa kwambiri kuti kupatukana koteroko kudzachitika mtsogolo.

Olembawo akunena kuti njira zandale zomwe zilipo zowonjezeretsa mphamvu zamagetsi ziyenera kutsatiridwa ndi njira zopezera mphamvu.10 amafunika kuwonjezeredwa. Zomwe zimatanthauzidwa ndi izi ndikuti kupanga ndi kugwiritsira ntchito m'mayiko olemera kuyenera kuchepetsedwa mpaka kufika pamlingo wokwanira, wokwanira, mlingo umene moyo wabwino umatheka mkati mwa malire a mapulaneti.

M'nkhaniyi, olembawo amatchula phunziro la "Global carbon inequality" lolemba Hubacek et al. (2017)11: Choyambirira cha UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ndikuthetsa umphawi. Mu 2017, theka la anthu amakhala ndi ndalama zosakwana $3 patsiku. Gulu lopeza ndalamali lidayambitsa 15 peresenti yokha ya mpweya wotenthetsa dziko lonse lapansi. Gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a anthu ankakhala ndi ndalama pafupifupi $3 mpaka $8 patsiku ndipo anachititsa 23 peresenti ya mpweya. Mapazi awo a CO2 pa munthu aliyense anali okwera katatu kuposa omwe amapeza ndalama zochepa kwambiri. Kotero ngati ndalama zotsika kwambiri ziyenera kukwezedwa ku mlingo wotsatira wotsatira ndi 2050, izo zokha (zokhala ndi mphamvu zofanana) zingawononge 66 peresenti ya bajeti ya CO2 yomwe ikupezeka pa 2 ° C. Kuchuluka kwa mpweya wapakati pa 2 peresenti ndi ndalama zoposa $ 10 patsiku kunali koposa 23 kuposa kwa osauka kwambiri. (Onaninso positi mu Celsius: Olemera ndi nyengo.)

Malingana ndi gulu la Parrique, izi zimapangitsa kuti mayiko omwe apindula kwambiri ndi CO2 kuipitsidwa kwa mlengalenga achepetse kwambiri mpweya wawo kuti apatse mayiko a Global South mwayi wopita patsogolo.

Mwatsatanetsatane, olembawo amanena kuti kuchotseratu kokwanira sikungadziwike pazakudya, kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu, kugwiritsa ntchito nthaka, kugwiritsa ntchito madzi, kutulutsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha, kuipitsa madzi kapena kuwonongeka kwa chilengedwe. Nthawi zambiri, kusagwirizana kumakhala kofanana. Ngati pali decoupling mtheradi, ndiye kwa nthawi yochepa komanso kwanuko.

Olembawo amatchula zifukwa zingapo zomwe zimalepheretsa kukwatirana:

1. Kuchulukitsa kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka mphamvu: Pamene gwero linalake likuchotsedwa (osati mafuta oyaka, komanso mwachitsanzo ores), amayamba kuchotsedwa kumene kuli kotheka ndi mtengo wotsika kwambiri komanso kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu. Zomwe zakhala zikugwiritsidwa ntchito kale, zimakhala zovuta kwambiri, zodula komanso zogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zogwiritsira ntchito ndalama zatsopano, monga mchenga wa phula ndi shale yamafuta. Ngakhale malasha amtengo wapatali kwambiri, anthracite, atsala pang’ono kutha, ndipo masiku ano malasha otsika akukumbidwa. Mu 1930, miyala yamkuwa yokhala ndi 1,8% yamkuwa idakumbidwa, masiku ano ndende ndi 0,5%. Pofuna kutulutsa zinthu, zinthu zochulukira kuwirikiza katatu masiku ano zimayenera kusunthidwa monga momwe zinalili zaka 100 zapitazo. 1 kWh ya mphamvu zongowonjezedwanso imagwiritsa ntchito chitsulo kuwirikiza ka 10 kuposa XNUMX kWh ya mphamvu zotsalira zakale.
2. Rebound Zotsatira: Kupititsa patsogolo mphamvu zogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu nthawi zambiri kumapangitsa kuti ndalama zina kapena ndalama zonse zithetsedwe kwina. Mwachitsanzo, ngati galimoto yotsika mtengo imagwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zambiri kapena ngati ndalama zotsika mtengo zamagetsi zimayikidwa paulendo wa pandege. Palinso zotsatira zamapangidwe. Mwachitsanzo, injini zoyaka moto zamkati zotsika mtengo zitha kutanthauza kuti zoyendera zolemera zamagalimoto zimakhazikika komanso kuti njira zina zokhazikika monga kupalasa njinga ndi kuyenda sizibwera. M'makampani, kugulidwa kwa makina ogwira mtima kwambiri ndikolimbikitsa kukulitsa kupanga.
3. kusintha kwamavuto: Njira zothetsera vuto la chilengedwe zimatha kuyambitsa mavuto atsopano kapena kukulitsa zomwe zilipo kale. Magalimoto apadera amagetsi akuwonjezera kukakamiza kwa lithiamu, cobalt ndi ma depositi amkuwa. Izi zikhoza kuonjezera mavuto a anthu okhudzana ndi kuchotsedwa kwa zipangizozi. Kudulidwa kwa nthaka yosowa kumayambitsa kuwonongeka kwakukulu kwa chilengedwe. Ma biofuel kapena biomass popanga mphamvu ali ndi vuto pakugwiritsa ntchito nthaka. Mphamvu ya hydropower imatha kuyambitsa mpweya wa methane pamene matope amadziunjikira kumbuyo kwa madamu amalimbikitsa kukula kwa algae. Chitsanzo chowoneka bwino cha kusintha kwamavuto ndi ichi: Dziko lapansi latha kuchepetsa kukula kwachuma chifukwa cha kuwononga manyowa a akavalo ndi kumwa madzi am'madzi a namgumi - koma powachotsa ndi mitundu ina ya zinthu zachilengedwe.
4. Zotsatira za chuma chautumiki nthawi zambiri zimanyozedwa: Chuma chautumiki chikhoza kukhalapo kokha pamaziko a chuma chakuthupi, osati popanda izo. Zogulitsa zosagwirika zimafunikira maziko akuthupi. Mapulogalamu amafunikira hardware. Malo otikita minofu amafunikira chipinda chotenthetsera. Amene amagwira ntchito m’gawo lautumiki amalandira malipiro amene amathera pa zinthu zakuthupi. Makampani otsatsa malonda ndi ntchito zachuma zimathandizira kulimbikitsa kugulitsa zinthu zakuthupi. Zowonadi, makalabu a yoga, othandizira mabanja, kapena masukulu okwera amatha kupangitsa kuti chilengedwe chisavutike, koma sizoyeneranso. Mafakitale azidziwitso ndi zolumikizirana ndi opatsa mphamvu kwambiri: intaneti yokha ndiyomwe imayang'anira 1,5% mpaka 2% yamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi. Kusintha kwachuma chantchito kwatsala pang'ono kutha m'maiko ambiri a OECD. Ndipo awa ndi maiko omwe ali ndi vuto logwiritsa ntchito kwambiri.
5. Kuthekera kobwezeretsanso kuli ndi malire: Mitengo yobwezeretsanso ndiyotsika kwambiri ndipo ikungowonjezereka pang'onopang'ono. Kubwezeretsanso kumafunabe ndalama zambiri mu mphamvu ndi kubwezanso zopangira. Zipangizo. Zida zimawonongeka pakapita nthawi ndipo ziyenera kusinthidwa ndi zatsopano. Ngakhale ndi Fairphone, yomwe imayamikiridwa kwambiri pamapangidwe ake, 30% yazinthuzo zitha kubwezeretsedwanso bwino. Zitsulo zomwe zimafunikira kupanga ndikusunga mphamvu zowonjezera zidangopangidwanso 2011% mu 1. N'zoonekeratu kuti ngakhale kukonzanso bwino sikungawonjezere zinthuzo. Chuma chomwe chikukula sichingatheke ndi zinthu zobwezerezedwanso. Zomwe zili ndi mtengo wabwino kwambiri wobwezeretsanso ndi chitsulo. Ndi kukula kwapachaka pakugwiritsa ntchito zitsulo ndi 2%, nkhokwe zachitsulo padziko lapansi zidzatha chaka cha 2139. Mlingo wamakono wobwezeretsanso wa 62% ukhoza kuchedwetsa nthawiyo ndi zaka 12. Ngati mtengo wobwezeretsanso ukhoza kuwonjezeka kufika pa 90%, izi zingowonjezera zaka zina 712.
6. Zamakono zamakono sizokwanira: Kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo sikumayang'ana zinthu zopanga zomwe ndizofunikira kuti chilengedwe chikhale chokhazikika komanso sizimayambitsa zatsopano zomwe zimachepetsa kupsinjika kwa chilengedwe. Sichikhoza kulowetsa m'malo mwaukadaulo wina wosafunikira, komanso sichachangu kuonetsetsa kuti pali kulumikizana kokwanira. Kupita patsogolo kwambiri kwaukadaulo ndicholinga chopulumutsa anthu ogwira ntchito komanso ndalama. Komabe, ndi njira iyi yomwe imatsogolera kuchulukirachulukira kwa kupanga. Mpaka pano, magwero a mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso sanachedwetse kutsika kwa mafuta oyambira pansi chifukwa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kukukulirakulira. Zowonjezedwanso ndi magwero owonjezera a mphamvu.Gawo la malasha pakugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi latsika pang'onopang'ono, koma kugwiritsa ntchito malasha kwathunthu kukuchulukirabe mpaka lero. Mu chuma cha capitalistic, chokhazikika pakukula, zatsopano zimachitika kuposa zonse zikabweretsa phindu. Chifukwa chake, zopanga zambiri zimayendetsa kukula.
7. kusintha kwa mtengo: Zina mwa zomwe zimatchedwa kusokoneza kwenikweni ndikungosintha kuwonongeka kwa chilengedwe kuchokera kumayiko ogwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri kupita kumayiko otsika kwambiri. Kuganizira za momwe chilengedwe chimayendera kumapereka chithunzithunzi chocheperako komanso kudzutsa kukayikira za kuthekera kwa kugawanikana kwamtsogolo.

Olembawo amawona kuti ochirikiza "kukula kobiriwira" ali ndi zochepa kapena alibe zokhutiritsa ponena za mfundo zisanu ndi ziwiri zomwe zatchulidwa. Opanga ndondomeko akuyenera kuzindikira mfundo yakuti kuthana ndi mavuto a nyengo ndi zamoyo zosiyanasiyana (omwe ndi awiri okha mwa mavuto angapo a chilengedwe) adzafunika kuchepetsa kupanga chuma ndi kugwiritsa ntchito m'mayiko olemera kwambiri. Iwo akutsindika kuti iyi si nkhani yongopeka chabe. M'zaka makumi angapo zapitazi, magulu amagulu ku Global North apangana mozungulira lingaliro lakukwanira: Kusintha kwa Mizinda, kuyenda kwa degrowth, midzi, Slow Cities, mgwirizano chuma, Common Good Economy ndi zitsanzo. Zomwe mayendedwe awa akunena ndikuti: zambiri sizikhala bwino nthawi zonse, komanso zokwanira. Malinga ndi olemba a phunziroli, sikoyenera kusokoneza kukula kwachuma kuchokera ku kuwonongeka kwa chilengedwe, koma kusokoneza chitukuko ndi moyo wabwino kuchokera ku kukula kwachuma.

ZOONA: Renate Khristu
ZITHUNZI PACHIKUTO: Montage yolembedwa ndi Martin Auer, zithunzi zojambulidwa ndi Matthias Boeckel ndi zithunzi za bluelight kudzera Pixabay)

Mawu a M'munsi:

1Club of Rome (2000): Malire a Kukula. Lipoti la Club of Rome ponena za chikhalidwe cha anthu. Kusindikiza kwa 17 Stuttgart: German publishing house, p.17

2https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00723-1

3ibid

4Stoknes, Per Espen; Rockström, Johan (2018): Kufotokozeranso kukula kobiriwira mkati mwa malire a mapulaneti. Mu: Energy Research & Social Science 44, pp. 41-49. DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2018.04.030

5Rockstrom, Johan (2010): Planetary Boundaries. Mu: New Perspectives Quarterly 27 (1), tsamba 72-74. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5842.2010.01142.x.

6ibid.

7Mtengo wowonjezeredwa pagawo lililonse la CO2 umatchedwa carbon productivity, chidule cha CAPRO.
CAPRO = GDP/CO2 → GDP/CAPRO = CO2 .. Mukayika 103 kwa GDP ndi 105 kwa CAPRO, zotsatira zake ndi 2 za CO0,98095, mwachitsanzo, kuchepa kwa pafupifupi 2%.

8Tilsted, Joachim Peter; Bjorn, Anders; Majeau-Bettez, Guillaume; Lund, Jens Friis (2021): Nkhani zowerengera: Kubwerezanso zonena zakusokonekera komanso kukula kobiriwira kwenikweni m'maiko a Nordic. Mu: Ecological Economics 187, tsamba 1-9. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107101.

9Parrique T, Barth J, Briens F, Kerschner C, Kraus-Polk A, Kuokkanen A, Spangenberg JH (2019): Decoupling-Debunked. Umboni ndi zotsutsana ndi kukula kobiriwira ngati njira yokhayo yokhazikika. Brussels: European Environmental Bureau.

10Kuchokera ku Chingerezi Zokwanira = zokwanira.

11Hubacek, Klaus; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Feng, Kuishuang; Muñoz Castillo, Raúl; Sun, Laixiang; Xue, Jinjun (2017): Kusagwirizana kwa carbon padziko lonse. Mu: Mphamvu. Ekolo. chilengedwe 2 (6), tsamba 361-369. DOI: 10.1007/s40974-017-0072-9.

12Grosse, F; Mainguy, G. (2010): Kodi kubwezeretsanso "gawo la yankho"? Ntchito yobwezeretsanso pakukula kwa anthu komanso dziko lazinthu zopanda malire. https://journals.openedition.org/sapiens/906#tocto1n2