By Martin Auer

Shekaru 50 da suka gabata, an buga littafin Ƙaddamar da Ci gaba, wanda Ƙungiyar Roma ta ba da izini kuma ta samar a Cibiyar Fasaha ta Massachusetts (MIT). Marubuta masu jagoranci sune Donella da Dennis Meadows. Binciken nasu ya dogara ne akan simintin kwamfuta wanda ya sake haifar da dangantaka tsakanin al'amuran duniya guda biyar: haɓaka masana'antu, haɓakar yawan jama'a, rashin abinci mai gina jiki, raguwar albarkatun ƙasa, da lalata wuraren zama. Sakamakon ya kasance: "Idan karuwar yawan jama'a a duniya a halin yanzu, masana'antu, gurbatawa, samar da abinci da kuma amfani da albarkatun kasa ya ci gaba ba tare da canzawa ba, za a kai ga cikakken iyakar ci gaban duniya a cikin shekaru dari masu zuwa."1

Littafin, in ji Donella Meadows, "ba a rubuta shi don annabcin halaka ba, amma don ƙalubalanci mutane don neman hanyoyin rayuwa da suka dace da dokokin duniya."2

Ko da yake a yau an yi yarjejeniya da yawa cewa ayyukan ɗan adam na da tasirin da ba za a iya jurewa ba a kan muhalli, kamar yadda mujallar Nature ta rubuta a cikin sabon fitowarta.3, masu bincike sun rabu kan hanyoyin da za a iya magance su, musamman ma ya zama dole a iyakance ci gaban tattalin arziki ko kuma "haɓaka kore" zai yiwu.

"Green girma" yana nufin cewa samar da tattalin arziki yana ƙaruwa yayin da amfani da albarkatu ya ragu. Yin amfani da albarkatu na iya nufin amfani da albarkatun mai ko amfani da makamashi gabaɗaya ko amfani da takamaiman albarkatun ƙasa. Muhimmancin mahimmanci ba shakka shine amfani da ragowar kasafin kuɗin carbon, cin ƙasa, asarar nau'ikan halittu, amfani da ruwa mai tsafta, wuce gona da iri na ƙasa da ruwa tare da nitrogen da phosphorus, haɓaka acidity na tekuna da ƙari. gurbatar yanayi tare da robobi da sauran kayayyakin sinadarai.

Yanke ci gaban tattalin arziki daga amfani da albarkatu

Manufar "haɓaka" ci gaban tattalin arziki daga amfani da albarkatu yana da mahimmanci ga tattaunawa. Idan amfani da albarkatu ya karu daidai da adadin abin da ake fitarwa na tattalin arziki, to, ana samun ci gaban tattalin arziki da amfani da albarkatu. Lokacin da amfani da albarkatun ya karu a hankali fiye da yadda ake samar da tattalin arziki, mutum yayi magana akan "dangi decoupling". Sai kawai idan amfani da albarkatun yana raguwa, yayin da tattalin arziki ya karu, mutum zai iyacikakke decoupling", sannan kawai mutum zai iya yin magana akan "girman kore". Sai dai idan amfani da albarkatun ya ragu gwargwadon abin da ya wajaba don cimma muradun yanayi da bambancin halittu, a cewar Johan Rockström. Cibiyar Resilience ta Stockholm barata ta"gaske kore girma"4 yin magana.

Rockstrom yana gabatar da manufar iyakokin duniya5 masu haɗin gwiwa sun yi imanin cewa tattalin arzikin ƙasa na iya haɓaka yayin da hayaƙin iskar gas ɗin su ya faɗi. Tun da muryarsa tana da nauyi a duniya, za mu yi cikakken bayani game da kasidarsa a nan. Ya yi ishara da nasarorin da kasashen Nordic suka samu wajen rage fitar da hayaki mai gurbata muhalli. A cikin labarin tare da Per Espen Stoknes6 daga 2018 ya haɓaka ma'anar "girman kore na gaskiya". A cikin samfurin su, Rockström da Stoknes kawai suna nufin sauyin yanayi saboda akwai sanannun sigogi don wannan. A cikin wannan takamaiman yanayin, yana game da alaƙar da ke tsakanin iskar CO2 da ƙarin ƙimar. Domin fitar da hayaki ya ragu yayin da aka ƙara ƙimar, ƙimar da aka ƙara akan kowace ton na CO2 dole ne ta ƙaru. Mawallafa sun ɗauka cewa rage yawan iskar CO2 na shekara-shekara na 2015% daga 2 ya zama dole don cimma burin dumama ƙasa da 2 ° C. Hakanan suna ɗaukan matsakaicin haɓakar haɓakar tattalin arzikin duniya (GDP na duniya ko babban kayan gida3% kowace shekara. Daga wannan sun yanke shawarar cewa ƙarin ƙimar kowace tonne na iskar CO2 dole ne ya karu da 5% a kowace shekara domin "hakikanin ci gaban kore" ya wanzu.7. Sun bayyana wannan 5% a matsayin mafi ƙanƙanta kuma zato mai fata.

A mataki na gaba, sun bincika ko irin wannan haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar carbon (watau ƙimar da aka ƙara ta kowace iskar CO2) an samu a zahiri a ko'ina, kuma sun gano cewa Sweden, Finland da Denmark a haƙiƙa sun sami haɓakar haɓakar carbon a cikin lokacin. 2003-2014 5,7%, 5,5% zai kai 5,0%. Daga wannan suka yanke shawarar cewa "hakikanin ci gaban kore" mai yiwuwa ne kuma ana iya gane su ta zahiri. Suna la'akari da yiwuwar samun nasara a cikin nasara, wanda ke ba da damar kare yanayin yanayi da ci gaba, ya zama mahimmanci ga yarda da siyasa na kariyar yanayi da dorewa. A zahiri, "haɓaka kore" shine manufa ga masu tsara manufofi da yawa a cikin EU, Majalisar Dinkin Duniya da kuma a duk duniya.

A cikin binciken 20218 Tilsted et al. gudunmawar Stoknes da Rockström. Fiye da duka, suna sukar gaskiyar cewa Stoknes da Rockström sun yi amfani da hayakin yanki na samar da kayayyaki, watau hayaƙin da ake samarwa a ƙasar kanta. Waɗannan hayaƙi ba su haɗa da hayaƙi daga jigilar kayayyaki na ƙasa da ƙasa da zirga-zirgar jiragen sama ba. Idan an haɗa waɗannan hayaƙi a cikin lissafin, sakamakon Denmark, alal misali, yana canzawa sosai. Maersk, kamfanin jigilar kaya mafi girma a duniya, yana zaune ne a Denmark. Kamar yadda aka ƙara ƙimar ta a cikin GDP na Danish, dole ne kuma a haɗa abubuwan da ke fitar da shi. Tare da wannan, duk da haka, ci gaban Denmark a cikin haɓaka haɓakar haɓakar carbon ya ɓace kusan gaba ɗaya kuma kusan babu cikakkiyar ɓarna kuma.

Idan mutum ya yi amfani da tushen amfani maimakon abubuwan da ake samarwa, hoton yana ƙara canzawa. Hatsarin da ake amfani da shi shine wanda ake samarwa ta hanyar kera kayayyakin da ake amfani da su a kasar, ba tare da la’akari da ko wane bangare na duniya ake samar da su ba. A cikin wannan ƙididdiga, duk ƙasashen Nordic sun yi kasa da kashi 5% na karuwar yawan aikin carbon da ake buƙata don 'hasken ci gaban kore'.

Wani batu na zargi shine Soknes da Rockström sun yi amfani da maƙasudin 2°C. Tunda haɗarin ɗumamar 2°C ya wuce 1,5°C, wannan manufa yakamata a yi amfani da ita azaman ma'auni don isassun ragi a cikin hayaƙi.

Abubuwa Bakwai Ga Koren Girma

A cikin 2019, Hukumar Kula da Muhalli ta Turai ta NGO ta buga binciken "Decoupling Debunked"9 ("Decoupling Unmasked") na Timothée Parrique da wasu masana kimiyya shida. A cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata, marubutan sun lura, "haɓaka kore" ya mamaye dabarun tattalin arziki a Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, EU da sauran ƙasashe masu yawa. Wadannan dabarun sun ginu ne a kan kuskuren zaton cewa za a iya samun isassun hada-hadar kudi ta hanyar ingantaccen makamashi kadai, ba tare da takaita samarwa da amfani da kayayyakin tattalin arziki ba. Babu wata kwakkwarar hujjar da ke nuna cewa an samu gyare-gyare a ko'ina da ya isa don kauce wa rugujewar muhalli, kuma da alama ba zai yiwu a yi irin wannan gyare-gyare a nan gaba ba.

Marubutan sun bayyana cewa dabarun siyasa da ake da su don inganta ingantaccen makamashi dole ne a cika su ta hanyar matakan isa.10 bukatar kari. Abin da ake nufi da hakan shi ne, ya kamata a rage samar da abinci da amfani da su a cikin kasashe masu arziki zuwa wani matakin da ya dace, wanda ya dace, matakin da rayuwa mai kyau za ta yiwu a cikin iyakokin duniya.

A cikin wannan mahallin, marubutan sun buga binciken "Rashin daidaituwar carbon na Duniya" na Hubacek et al. (2017)11: Na farko na shirin ci gaba mai dorewa na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya (SDGs) shine kawar da talauci. A cikin 2017, rabin bil'adama suna rayuwa a kasa da $ 3 a rana. Wannan rukunin samun kudin shiga ya haifar da kashi 15 cikin 3 na hayaki mai gurbata yanayi a duniya. Kashi kwata na bil'adama suna rayuwa a kusan $8 zuwa $23 a rana kuma sun haifar da kashi 2 na hayaki. Sawun su na CO2050 ga kowane mutum ya kasance kusan sau uku fiye da na rukunin mafi ƙarancin kuɗi. Don haka idan za a haɓaka mafi ƙarancin kuɗin shiga zuwa matsayi mafi girma ta 66, wannan kaɗai (tare da ingantaccen makamashi iri ɗaya) zai cinye kashi 2 na kasafin CO2 da ke akwai don 2°C manufa. Sawun carbon na saman kashi 10 tare da fiye da $ 23 a rana ya fi sau XNUMX fiye da na matalauta. (Dubi kuma post a Celsius: Masu arziki da yanayin.)

Sawun Carbon ta Rukunin Samun Kuɗi (Global)
Hoton kansa, tushen bayanai: Hubacek et al. (2017): Rashin daidaituwar carbon na duniya. A cikin: Makamashi. Ecol. muhalli 2 (6), shafi na 361-369.

A cewar tawagar Parrique, wannan ya haifar da wani takalifi na dabi'a a fili ga kasashen da ya zuwa yanzu suka fi cin gajiyar gurbacewar yanayi na CO2 wajen rage hayakin da suke fitarwa, domin bai wa kasashen yankin Kudancin Duniya damar samun ci gaba.

A daki-daki, marubutan sun bayyana cewa ba za a iya tantance isassun gyare-gyare a fannonin da ake amfani da su ba, da amfani da makamashi, da amfani da kasa, da amfani da ruwa, da hayaki mai gurbata muhalli, da gurbacewar ruwa ko hasarar halittu. A mafi yawan lokuta, ƙaddamarwa na dangi ne. Idan akwai cikakkiyar ƙaddamarwa, to kawai a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci kuma a cikin gida.

Marubutan sun kawo dalilai da dama da ke hana yankewa:

  1. Ƙara yawan kuɗin makamashi: Lokacin da aka fitar da takamaiman albarkatun (ba kawai burbushin mai ba, har ma da ma'adinai), ana fara fitar da shi daga inda zai yiwu tare da mafi ƙarancin farashi da amfani da makamashi. Mafi yawan albarkatun da aka riga aka yi amfani da su, mafi wuya, tsada da makamashi shine amfani da sababbin ma'auni, kamar yashi na kwalta da ramin mai. Ko da gawayi mai daraja, anthracite, an kusa yin amfani da shi, kuma a yau ana hako garwashin kasa da kasa. A cikin 1930, an haƙa ma'adinan jan ƙarfe tare da ƙwayar jan ƙarfe na 1,8%, a yau ƙaddamarwa shine 0,5%. Domin fitar da kayan, dole ne a motsa ninki uku a yau kamar yadda ake yi shekaru 100 da suka gabata. 1 kWh na makamashin da ake sabuntawa yana amfani da ƙarfe sau 10 fiye da XNUMX kWh na makamashin burbushin halittu.
  2. Tasirin Sake dawowa: Haɓaka ingantaccen ƙarfin kuzari yakan haifar da wasu ko duk abubuwan da aka tara ana kashe su a wani wuri. Misali, idan an fi amfani da mota mafi arziƙi sau da yawa ko kuma idan an saka jarin ajiyar kuɗi daga ƙananan kuɗin makamashi a cikin jirgin. Hakanan akwai tasirin tsarin. Misali, injunan kone-kone na cikin gida na tattalin arziki na iya nufin cewa tsarin sufurin da ke da nauyi na mota ya samu gindin zama kuma hanyoyin da za su dore kamar hawan keke da tafiya ba sa shiga cikin wasa. A cikin masana'antu, siyan injunan ingantattun injuna shine abin ƙarfafawa don haɓaka samarwa.
  3. matsalar canji: Hanyoyin fasaha don magance matsalar muhalli na iya haifar da sababbin matsaloli ko kuma tsananta matsalolin da ake ciki. Motoci masu zaman kansu na lantarki suna ƙara matsa lamba akan ajiyar lithium, cobalt da tagulla. Wannan na iya kara tsananta matsalolin zamantakewar da ke tattare da hakar wadannan albarkatun kasa. Cire ƙasan da ba kasafai ake samun su ba yana haifar da mummunar lalacewar muhalli. Biofuels ko biomass don samar da makamashi suna da mummunan tasiri akan amfani da ƙasa. Ƙarfin ruwa zai iya haifar da hayaƙin methane lokacin da tarin sludge a bayan dams yana ƙarfafa haɓakar algae. Misali mai haske na sauye-sauyen matsala shine: Duniya ta sami damar kawar da ci gaban tattalin arziki daga gurbacewar takin dawakai da kuma shan ruwan kifin kifi - amma ta maye gurbinsu da wasu nau'ikan amfani na halitta.
  4. Sau da yawa ana yin la'akari da tasirin tattalin arzikin sabis: Tattalin arzikin sabis na iya wanzuwa ne kawai bisa tushen tattalin arzikin abu, ba tare da shi ba. Kayayyakin da ba a taɓa gani ba suna buƙatar kayan aikin jiki. Software yana buƙatar hardware. Gidan tausa yana buƙatar ɗaki mai zafi. Waɗanda ke aiki a sashin sabis suna karɓar albashi waɗanda suke kashewa kan kayan masarufi. Masana'antar talla da sabis na kuɗi suna hidima don haɓaka siyar da kayan masarufi. Tabbas, kulake na yoga, ma'aurata masu kwantar da hankali, ko makarantun hawan hawa na iya rage matsin lamba akan muhalli, amma hakan kuma ba wajibi bane. Masana'antun bayanai da na sadarwa suna da ƙarfin kuzari: Intanet kaɗai ke da alhakin kashi 1,5 zuwa 2% na yawan makamashin duniya. Canji zuwa tattalin arzikin sabis ya kusan cika a yawancin ƙasashen OECD. Kuma waɗannan su ne ainihin ƙasashen da ke da babban sawun abinci.
  5. Yiwuwar sake yin amfani da ita yana da iyaka: Yawan sake amfani da su a halin yanzu sun yi ƙasa sosai kuma suna ƙaruwa sannu a hankali. Sake yin amfani da su har yanzu yana buƙatar babban saka hannun jari a cikin makamashi da kuma kwato albarkatun ƙasa. Kayayyaki. Kayayyakin suna raguwa akan lokaci kuma dole ne a maye gurbinsu da sabbin haƙar ma'adinai. Ko da tare da Fairphone, wanda ke da ƙima sosai don ƙirar ƙirar sa, 30% na kayan ana iya sake yin fa'ida da kyau. Karafa da ba kasafai ake bukata don samarwa da adana makamashin da ake sabunta su ba kashi 2011 cikin dari ne kawai aka sake yin amfani da su a cikin 1. A bayyane yake cewa ko da mafi kyawun sake yin amfani da su ba zai iya ƙara kayan aiki ba. Tattalin arzikin da ke haɓaka ba zai iya samun ta kan kayan da aka sake fa'ida ba. Abubuwan da ke da mafi kyawun ƙimar sake yin amfani da su shine karfe. Tare da haɓakar ƙarafa na shekara-shekara na kashi 2%, ma'adinan ƙarfe na duniya zai ƙare a cikin shekara ta 2139. Adadin sake yin amfani da su na 62% na iya jinkirta wannan batu da shekaru 12. Idan za a iya ƙara yawan sake amfani da su zuwa kashi 90 cikin ɗari, hakan zai ƙara ƙarin shekaru 7 kawai12.
  6. Sabbin fasahar ba su isa ba: Ci gaban fasaha ba ya haifar da abubuwan samarwa da ke da mahimmanci ga dorewar muhalli kuma baya haifar da sabbin abubuwa waɗanda ke rage matsin lamba akan yanayin. Ba ya sarrafa maye gurbin wasu, fasahohin da ba a so ba, kuma ba ta da sauri don tabbatar da isassun ƙulla. Yawancin ci gaban fasaha na nufin ceton aiki da jari. Duk da haka, daidai wannan tsari ne ke haifar da karuwa mai karuwa a cikin samarwa. Har ya zuwa yanzu, hanyoyin samar da makamashin da ake sabunta su ba su haifar da raguwar yawan man da ake amfani da su ba saboda yawan amfani da makamashi yana karuwa gaba daya. Abubuwan da ake sabuntawa su ne ƙarin hanyoyin samar da makamashi kawai, kaso na kwal a cikin makamashin duniya ya ragu cikin kaso, amma cikakken amfani da gawayi yana karuwa har yau. A cikin tsarin jari-hujja, tattalin arziƙin ci gaba, sabbin abubuwa suna faruwa sama da duka lokacin da suke kawo riba. Saboda haka, yawancin sababbin abubuwa suna haifar da haɓaka.
  7. canza kudin: Wasu daga cikin abin da ake kira decoupling a zahiri sauyi ne kawai na lalacewar muhalli daga yawan amfanin ƙasa zuwa ƙasashe masu ƙarancin amfani. Yin la'akari da sawun muhalli na tushen amfani yana ba da hoto mai ƙarancin haske kuma yana haifar da shakku game da yuwuwar haɗaɗɗen haɗin gwiwa na gaba.

Marubutan sun kammala cewa masu goyon bayan "koren girma" ba su da kadan ko babu abin da zai iya gamsar da su game da batutuwa bakwai da aka lissafa. Masu tsara manufofi suna buƙatar gane gaskiyar cewa magance rikice-rikicen yanayi da bambancin halittu (waɗanda biyu ne kawai daga cikin rikice-rikicen muhalli da yawa) na buƙatar rage haɓakar tattalin arziki da cin abinci a ƙasashe masu arziki. Wannan, sun jaddada, ba labari ba ne. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, ƙungiyoyin jama'a a Arewacin Duniya sun shirya bisa manufar isa: Tsarin gari na ƙaura, raguwar motsi, muhalli, Slow Biranen, hadin kai tattalin arziki, Tattalin Arziki Mai Kyau misalai ne. Abin da waɗannan ƙungiyoyi ke faɗi shi ne: ƙari ba koyaushe ya fi kyau ba, kuma isa ya wadatar. A cewar mawallafin binciken, ba lallai ba ne a kawar da ci gaban tattalin arziki daga lalacewar muhalli, amma don kawar da wadata da rayuwa mai kyau daga ci gaban tattalin arziki.

GASKIYA: Sada Kristi
HOTO MAI RUFE: Montage na Martin Auer, hotuna daga Matthias Boeckel ne adam wata kuma hotuna masu haske via Pixabay)

Bayanan kula:

1Club of Rome (2000): Iyaka don Girma. Rahoton Club of Rome game da yanayin ɗan adam. Bugu na 17 Stuttgart: Gidan wallafe-wallafen Jamus, shafi na 17

2https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00723-1

3ibid

4Stoknes, Per Espen; Rockström, Johan (2018): Sake fasalin ci gaban kore a cikin iyakokin duniya. A cikin: Binciken Makamashi & Kimiyyar zamantakewa 44, shafi 41-49. DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2018.04.030

5Rockstrom, Johan (2010): Planetary Boundaries. A: Sabbin Hanyoyi na Kwata na 27 (1), shafi na 72-74. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5842.2010.01142.x.

6ibid.

7Ƙimar da aka ƙara a kowace raka'a na CO2 ana kiranta yawan aikin carbon, taƙaice CAPRO.
CAPRO = GDP / CO2 → GDP / CAPRO = CO2 .. Idan kun saka 103 don GDP da 105 don CAPRO, sakamakon shine 2 don CO0,98095, watau raguwa kusan kusan 2%.

8Tilsted, Joachim Peter; Bjorn, Anders; Majeau-Bettez, Guillaume; Lund. A cikin: Ecological Economics 2021, shafi 187-1. DOI: 9/j.ecolecon.10.1016.

9Parrique T, Barth J, Briens F, Kerschner C, Kraus-Polk A, Kuokkanen A, Spangenberg JH (2019): Decoupling-Debunked. Shaida da muhawara game da ci gaban kore a matsayin dabarar dorewa kawai. Brussels: Ofishin Muhalli na Turai.

10Daga Turanci Isa = isa.

11Hubacek, Klaus; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Feng, Kuishuang; Muñoz Castillo, Raúl; Sun, Laixiang; Xue, Jinjun (2017): Rashin daidaiton carbon na duniya. A cikin: Makamashi. Ecol. muhalli 2 (6), shafi na 361-369. DOI: 10.1007/s40974-017-0072-9.

12Grosse, F; Mainguy, G. (2010): Shin sake yin amfani da “bangaren mafita ne”? Matsayin sake yin amfani da shi a cikin al'umma mai faɗaɗawa da duniyar albarkatu masu iyaka. https://journals.openedition.org/sapiens/906#tocto1n2

Wannan Zauren Al'umma ne ya kirkiresu. Shiga ciki ka tura sakon ka!

A KASAR KYAUTA ZUWA YANKIN AURE


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