Rahoton: Cikakkiyar kawar da iskar gas na Rasha zai zama abin dogaro ta fuskar tattalin arziki

da Martin Auer

Ta yaya fita daga iskar gas na Rasha zai shafi tattalin arzikin Austria? Rahoton da aka buga kwanan nan na Complexity Science Hub Vienna by1. Amsar a takaice: abin lura amma ana iya sarrafawa idan ƙasashen EU suna aiki tare.

Austriya na shigo da kashi 80 cikin 38 na iskar gas da take amfani da shi a duk shekara daga Rasha. EU kusan kashi XNUMX. Gas na iya gaza ba zato ba tsammani, ko dai saboda EU ta sanya takunkumin shigo da kayayyaki, ko kuma saboda Rasha ta daina fitar da kayayyaki zuwa ketare, ko kuma saboda rikicin soji a Ukraine ya lalata bututun mai.

Rahoton ya yi nazari kan abubuwa biyu masu yuwuwa: Yanayin farko ya ɗauka cewa ƙasashen EU suna aiki tare don magance matsalar tare. Labari na biyu yana ɗaukan cewa ƙasashen da abin ya shafa suna aiki ɗaiɗaiku kuma ba tare da haɗin kai ba.

A cikin 2021 Ostiriya ta cinye mitoci cubic biliyan 9,34 na iskar gas. Idan babu iskar gas na Rasha, biliyan 7,47 za su bace. EU za ta iya samun ƙarin 10 bcm ta hanyar bututun da ke akwai da 45 bcm a cikin nau'in LNG daga Amurka ko ƙasashen Gulf. Tarayyar Turai na iya ɗaukar biliyan 28 m³ daga wuraren ajiya. Idan kasashen EU suka yi aiki tare bisa tsarin hadin gwiwa, kowace kasa za ta rasa kashi 17,4 cikin 1,63 na abincin da ta yi a baya. Ga Ostiriya, wannan yana nufin raguwar biliyan 1 m³ a wannan shekara (daga Yuni XNUMXst).

A cikin yanayin da ba a haɗa kai ba, duk ƙasashe membobin za su yi ƙoƙarin siyan iskar gas da ya ɓace a kasuwannin duniya. A karkashin wannan zato, Ostiriya na iya yin gwanjon biliyan 2,65 m³. A cikin wannan yanayin, duk da haka, Ostiriya na iya zubar da ajiyarta da kanta kuma tana iya janye ƙarin 1,40 m³. A karkashin wannan yanayin, Ostiriya za ta yi kasa da biliyan 3,42 m³, wanda zai zama kashi 36,6.

Binciken ya yi la'akari da cewa za a iya mayar da wutar lantarki mai karfin megawatt 700 na iskar gas zuwa mai cikin kankanin lokaci, wanda hakan ya ceci kashi 10,3 na iskar gas a duk shekara. Canje-canjen ɗabi'a kamar rage zafin ɗaki a gidaje da 1°C na iya haifar da tanadin biliyan 0,11 m³. Rage amfani zai kuma rage iskar gas da ake buƙata don sarrafa kayan aikin bututun da ƙarin 0,11 bcm.

Idan kasashen EU suka yi aiki tare, Ostiriya za ta yi kasa da biliyan 0,61 m³ a cikin shekara mai zuwa, wanda zai zama kashi 6,5 na amfanin shekara-shekara. Idan kowace kasa za ta yi aiki da kanta, Ostiriya za ta yi kasa da biliyan 2,47 m³, wanda zai zama kashi 26,5 na amfanin shekara-shekara.

Bayan an ba da abokan ciniki masu kariya (gidaje da masana'antar wutar lantarki), sauran iskar gas za a keɓe ga masana'antu. A cikin yanayin haɗin gwiwa, masana'antar za ta rage yawan iskar gas ɗinta da kashi 10,4 cikin ɗari idan aka kwatanta da na al'ada, amma da kashi 53,3 cikin ɗari a yanayin da ba a haɗa kai ba. A cikin shari'ar farko, hakan yana nufin raguwar samar da kashi 1,9 cikin ɗari, a mafi muni, da kashi 9,1 cikin ɗari.

Asara, in ji rahoton, zai yi kasa da tasirin tattalin arzikin farkon guguwar Covid-19 a yanayin farko. A cikin yanayi na biyu, asarar da aka yi za ta kasance kwatankwacinta, amma har yanzu sun fi asarar da aka samu daga guguwar corona ta farko.

Tasirin hana shigo da iskar gas ya dogara sosai kan matakan da ake ɗauka. A matsayin mahimman bayanai, rahoton ya ba da misali da daidaituwar manufofin samar da iskar gas na EU, shirye-shiryen canza tashar wutar lantarki zuwa wasu albarkatun mai a lokacin bazara, abubuwan ƙarfafawa don sauya hanyoyin samarwa, abubuwan ƙarfafawa don sauya tsarin dumama, abubuwan ƙarfafawa don saka hannun jari a cikin fasahohin makamashi mai sabuntawa, abubuwan ƙarfafawa yawan jama'a don shiga rayayye don ceton iskar gas.

A taƙaice, rahoton ya kammala da cewa: "Saboda gagarumin barnar da yaƙin ya haifar, takunkumin shigar da Rasha gabaɗayan EU zai iya wakiltar dabarun tattalin arziki."

hoton murfin: Boevaya mashina: Babban Ginin Gazprom a Moscow, ta hanyar Wikimedia, CC-BY

1 Anton Pichler, Jan Hurt*, Tobias Reisch*, Johannes Stangl*, Stefan Thurner: Austria ba tare da iskar gas na Rasha ba? Tasirin tattalin arziƙin da ake tsammani na tsayawar iskar gas kwatsam da dabarun rage su.
https://www.csh.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-24-CSH-Policy-Brief-Gasschock-Fin-Kurzfassung-DE.pdf.
Cikakken rahoton:
https://www.csh.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-24-CSH-Policy-Brief-Gas-Shock-Long-Version-EN.pdf