The future of work

Nothing will be the same anymore. It has always been like this. But as fast as today - as it seems - the world has never turned. This can be fixed on many examples. Let's look at the development of new technologies. Computers that enable virtual offices and completely location-independent work. Networked worldwide, at a dizzying speed. Cars that not only know the destination, but also drive themselves. Let's look further into the direction of social change, keyword migration and refugee crisis. Challenges that most of today's people no longer know. They all have one thing in common: they will have a massive impact on the world of work. Effects that are not in the distant future, but are already noticeable.

Forecast future work

Half of all jobs at risk?
The Viennese consulting firm Kovar und Partner recently published the much-noticed Arena Analysis 2016 on this topic. She is working intensively on the working world of tomorrow. In total, interviews and comprehensive written contributions were evaluated by 58 experts and decision-makers. From people who recognize changes in their professional activity that the rest does not yet see. The forecast period we are talking about here: five to ten years.
“We are facing a quantum leap. The possibilities of big data, virtual offices and mobile possibilities of production will turn the world of work completely upside down. Only a few professions will be completely rationalized, but almost all of them will change ”, analyzes Walter Osztovics, author of the study of Arena Analyze and managing director of Kovar & Partner. Big data, i.e. the possibility of collecting and evaluating large and complex amounts of data, 3D printers and the increasing automation of work processes with the help of robots are the cornerstones of the rapid changes, according to the study. Future research goes one step further, according to 30 to 40 percent of the workforce who will be severely affected by digitization.
A now famous study by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne at the University of Oxford in the year 2013 holds the most dramatic prognosis: 47 percent of all jobs in the US should therefore be at risk. Franz Kühmayer of the Zukunftsinstitut puts this number into perspective, but estimates: "Even if the study were to be wrong in half, it would still have an unbelievably large impact on the labor market. The most vulnerable are those with routine occupations. Whoever does about the same today as a year ago is in massive danger. "

Recipe for success Qualification and flexibility

The BBC has published a test on its homepage with the sounding name “Will a robot take your job”? So if you want to know exactly, you can find out more there. In general, the experts speak of a paradox that workers will have to adjust to in the future: “Qualifications are becoming more and more important, on the one hand. Even now there are hardly any jobs left for unskilled laborers - that will only get worse. On the other hand, flexibility is becoming more and more important in all professions ”, knows Walter Osztovics from the Vienna consulting firm Kovar & Partner. In other words: The ability to adapt to new circumstances, to complete further training or to dedicate oneself to completely new jobs and areas of responsibility. Osztovics gives examples: “In cities like Copenhagen, subways are already driverless. This now requires trained personnel in the monitoring center. Or cars: they will also need someone to repair them in the future. But what the mechanic used to be is now the mechatronics technician and will be a software engineer in the future. The winners are those who can deal with learning something new more often. "

Future work: More freelancers, less fixed jobs

The second major change is the emergence of virtual work environments. The technical possibilities will increasingly shift communication and cooperation to the internet. Many production processes will no longer be localized, 3D printers will in future manufacture to individual needs and replace large production halls and project teams will work together scattered around the world. "For well-connected people, this multiplies the possibilities," said study author Osztovics, "but it will also create a global competition. In a global labor market companies have to compete with fee rates from Eastern Europe. Plus: It creates a forced freelance. Employee product designers are replaced by area specialists who deliver their mental performance across the globe. But he is neither hired nor secured, let alone has a sales guarantee. And anyone who would like to have a fixed job as a product designer can not find one anymore. "The English term for this development is" gig economy ". Musicians play gigs, quasi-temporary engagements. The precarious insecurity of artist life becomes the norm for many workers. And: the employment will be less.
But what do these forecasts mean in practice? Are we facing a collapse of the working world? The answer depends solely on the question of how politics, business and society deal with it. Whether they recognize the opportunities and draw the right conclusions. And above all in good time. Kühmayer quotes John F. Kennedy: "The best time to fix the roof is when the sun is shining and not when it is raining." We are already feeling the first raindrops, he adds.

"A new redistribution debate must be conducted.
The so-called full employment is increasingly becoming an illusion
we have to face that. "

Future work: The key lies in the social system

But we do not want to paint black here and prefer to ask the question: How can we approach this change of the working world in a constructive way? Well, not all jobs that will take over robots in the future will be replaced by new ones. You do not even have to. Because many robots will in the future earn the money that humans once earned. This means that the gross national product will continue to increase through higher productivity, people only have to contribute less. This is a great opportunity if we manage to rebuild our social system accordingly. This is still very much dependent on gainful employment and is thus lagging far behind the trend.
"A new redistribution debate must be conducted," Franz Kühmayer of the Zukunftsinstitut points out. "We have to ask ourselves what a worthwhile picture of our society looks like in 15 years. The so-called full employment becomes more and more an illusion, we have to face it. It also means that we have to separate work and employment in the discussion. "To explain, a valuable work for society - for example, the care of the elderly or the raising of children - is not rewarded according to its social value. Much value through a lot of work for little money, so. To change that, the futurologists know different approaches.

Robots pay people

Keyword number one: the machine tax. The more automated the processes of a company, the more taxes it has to pay. This is to ensure that society as well as companies benefit from the higher productivity of robots. The counter-argument of the economy is, as so often: the business location Austria would be damaged, companies could migrate. "It should be pointed out that this overall development does not affect Austria alone, but that it is a worldwide phenomenon. Other countries - especially the highly developed ones - have to cooperate, "Kühmayer estimates. It should be added that countries such as Austria with a high tax rate and a good social system will be hit hardest by the development.

Future work: Less work, more sense

The resulting surplus in the social system leads us to keyword number two: the "unconditional basic income" much discussed among futurologists. So it's about an income for everyone, whether in employment or not. One that is higher than the already existing minimum income. One from which one can really live. A nice idea, only: how practicable is it? Why should people still go to work? Franz Kühmayer is not a friend of the term "unconditional" because he presumes an outdated picture of work: "Most people would continue to work if they win the lottery. Because work today is much more than just a way to earn money. But - especially with younger generations - has much to do with self-realization. All research in recent years shows us that these values ​​are becoming more and more important. "In this way, the level of the basic income could well be linked to conditions that have a value for society. Nursing jobs, the participation in aid organizations or generally higher-skilled activities could be better paid - especially as these jobs will not be done by robots in the future. "Anyone who actually finds his self-realization in pottery on the balcony, then gets less," recommends Kühmayer.

"If we are in the future for the same number of people
have more money available
why should there be poverty? "

Promotion against rationalization

Walter Osztovics agrees: "If we have more money available for the same number of people in the future, why should there be poverty? Unemployed work is a mindset with a lot of potential. If we manage to subsidize labor markets that can not be financed by market demand per se, society subsidizes them. "Osztovics sees another possibility in promoting companies that do not carry out productivity-enhancing job rationalization. The argument that companies should be run efficiently in terms of the total value added of a country, he knows to refute: "If we assume that we could get through digitization in a world where unemployment is permanently 20 percent, then it would be one It makes sense already. "

"Why do not we create a working world,
in the 25-30 hours a week is the norm? Then we had
enough jobs for everyone. "

Future work: Less work, more jobs

Also plausible sounds the proposal of working time reduction, ie the redistribution of the workload. Walter Osztovics: "Why do not we create a working world where 25-30 hours per week is the norm? Then we would have enough jobs for all. "With that he exposes himself - as he says himself - to the accusation of" milk girl's bill ", because the problem of unemployment is not a quantitative one, but a question of qualification. That's true to a certain extent. There is also a shortage of skilled workers in Austria. Nevertheless: "We have to assume that the added value of digitization will be achieved with fewer people in the future. If everyone has to work less then so much the better. "

The crazier, the future

Franz Kühmayer of the Zukunftsinstitut has also developed a concept with which he places the executive boards of the companies in their duty. Because they will play a crucial role in the question of how Austria, its society and its economy deals with the opportunities and risks of the new world of work. Under the heading "Crazy Responsibility" Kühmayer sums up his appeal to entrepreneurs to think "out of the box" in times of uncertainty and to strive for unconventional solutions. But the opposite is currently often the case - uncertainties would lead to security measures, not to innovation.
"Exactly these uncertain times, when a lot of things change, can be an incredible opportunity for companies - provided that they approach them with courage and new ideas. That's why it is very responsible right now to try crazy things. "Kühmayer illustrates this with the example of the car industry:" The brave ones of the industry have set a new way of private transport and started to offer car-sharing models - that is to put the benefits before the possession , Anyone who breaks new ground now risks a wrong decision. But the chance to score a hit is even bigger. "

Future work: Climate protection as an opportunity

The protection of the climate and the environment will, according to futurologists, also contribute more and more to the protection of the working world. So-called "green jobs", for example in the areas of photovoltaics, heat recovery or energy storage, are extremely popular.
Thus, the greening of the economy is probably the greatest opportunity for new jobs, explains Walter Osztovics. "An economy that works in an environmentally friendly and balanced resource balance would inevitably have more regional roots as global trade is inevitably a strong producer of CO2. That creates jobs. "But Osztovics stresses that this transformation of the economy will not be driven primarily by the market:" Here is the policy required. "
In the end, it will be an interplay of entrepreneurial innovation, a modernized social system, a new understanding of work and employment in society as well as the ability and willingness to change of each individual. Creating an adequate framework for all these changes, a system in which this complex interaction works smoothly, is the task of politics. No easy, no doubt. But a very promising one.

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