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Study: Toyota and Volkswagen car sales may push the planet past the 1,5 degree warming limit | Greenpeace int.

HAMBURG, GERMANY — Automakers worldwide are on track to sell an estimated 400 million more diesel and gasoline vehicles than is feasible to keep global warming below 1,5°C a new report Published by Greenpeace Germany.[1][2] The overshoot is about five times as much Total number of cars and vans Sold worldwide in 2021.

Toyota, Volkswagen and Hyundai/Kia car sales are on track to surpass the 1,5°C compatible target line by 63 million, 43 million and 39 million internal combustion engine vehicles respectively, putting global climate protection at risk, according to the report .

“Leading automakers, including Toyota, Volkswagen and Hyundai, are moving far too slowly towards zero-emission vehicles, with dangerous consequences for our planet. As the climate crisis deepens, governments from New York to Singapore are enacting tougher driving bans on diesel and gasoline vehicles. When traditional automakers fail to electrify, they lose out to newer, all-electric competitors and risk lost assets. Toyota, Volkswagen and other leading automakers are on a collision course with the climate,” says Benjamin Stephan, climate activist at Greenpeace Germany.

Expected combustion engine sales overshoot relative to a 2°C CO1,5 budget (as calculated in the Greenpeace Germany report)

Toyota Volkswagen Group Hyundai / Kia GM
% overshoot [lowerbound; upper bound]* 164% [144%; 184%] 118% [100%; 136%] 142% [124%; 159%] 57% [25%; 90%]
Exceeded in millions of vehicles [lowerbound; upper bound] 63 million [55 million; 71 million] 43 million [37 million; 50 million] 39 million [35 million; 44 million] 13 million [6 million; 21 million]
*Three transition scenarios were used in the report. The number in bold refers to the base case, while the lower and upper bound results are given in parentheses.

Traditional automakers that are slow to transition to electric vehicles face potentially lost assets and risk a significant loss of market share if climate regulations take hold. The report finds that the world's 12 largest automakers alone have over $2 trillion in market cap and debt at risk.

“As representatives from around the world gather at COP27 this week, Toyota and other automakers continue to ignore the gravity of the climate crisis. Automakers must stop selling diesel and gasoline vehicles, including hybrids, by 2030 at the latest. At the same time, they must reduce emissions in the supply chain and ensure workers' rights are protected during the transition," said Stephan.

Toyota is the one largest car manufacturer in the world by sales, but a recent study by Greenpeace East Asia found that electric vehicles only included one in 500 cars which the company sold in 2021. Toyota received the lowest score in Greenpeace East Asia's 2022 Auto Ranking due to the slow transition to zero-emission vehicles.

the full report, The internal combustion engine bubble is available here. Media briefing is available here.

Notes

[1] Three transition scenarios were used in the report: 397 million is the base case, while 330 million is the lower bound of the projection and 463 million is the upper bound.

[2] The report was written by researchers from the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, the Center of Automotive Management, University of Applied Sciences (FHDW) Bergisch Gladbach and Greenpeace Germany. Researchers determined the maximum number of internal combustion engine cars and vans that can be sold within a 1,5°C carbon budget, based on the Institute for Sustainable Futures' One Earth Climate Model. They then forecast future auto industry sales based on an assessment of sales rates for battery electric vehicles and the phase-out dates for internal combustion engines announced by four major automakers: Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai/Kia and General Motors.

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Photos: Greenpeace

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