Scientists for Future Austria
by Renate Christ
Before the climate conference in Sharm El Sheikh, important reports from UN organizations were published in the last few days, as in previous years. It is to be hoped that this will be taken into account in the negotiations.
UNEP EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2022
The Emissions Gap Report of the UN Environment Program (UNEP) analyzes the effect of the current measures and the available national contributions (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDC) and presents them to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions that are necessary for achieving 1,5°C or 2°C target are necessary, opposite. The report also analyzes measures in different sectors that are suitable for closing this "gap".
The most important key data are as follows:
- Only with current measures, without taking the NDC into account, are GHG emissions of 2030 GtCO58e to be expected in 2 and a warming of 2,8°C by the end of the century.
- If all unconditional NDCs are implemented, a warming of 2,6°C can be expected. By implementing all NDCs, which are linked to conditions such as financial aid, the temperature increase could be reduced to 2,4°C.
- In order to limit warming to 1,5°C or 2°C, emissions in 2030 may only amount to 33 GtCO2e or 41 GtCO2e. However, the emissions resulting from the present NDC are 23 GtCO2e or 15 GtCO2e higher. This emissions gap must be closed by additional measures. If the conditional NDCs are implemented, the emissions gap decreases by 3 GtCO2e each.
- The values are slightly lower than in previous reports as many countries have started to implement measures. The annual increase in global emissions has also decreased somewhat and is now 1,1% per year.
- In Glasgow all states were asked to present improved NDCs. However, these only lead to a further predicted GHG emission reduction in 2030 of 0,5 GtCO2e or less than 1%, i.e. only to an insignificant reduction in the emissions gap.
- The G20 countries will probably not reach the targets they have set themselves, which will increase the emissions gap and the rise in temperature.
- Many countries have submitted net-zero targets. However, without concrete short-term reduction targets, the effectiveness of such targets cannot be assessed and is not very credible.
Report, key messages and press statement
https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022
UNFCCC SYNTHESIS REPORT
The climate secretariat was commissioned by the contracting states to analyze the effect of the submitted NDC and long-term plans. The report comes to very similar conclusions as the UNEP Emissions Gap Report.
- If all existing NDCs are implemented, warming will be 2,5°C by the end of the century.
- Only 24 states submitted improved NDCs after Glasgow, with little effect.
- 62 countries, representing 83% of global emissions, have long-term net-zero targets, but often without concrete implementation plans. On the one hand, this is a positive signal, but it harbors the risk that urgently needed measures will be postponed until the distant future.
- By 2030, GHG emissions are expected to increase by 10,6% compared to 2010. No further increase is expected after 2030. This is an improvement on previous calculations that called for a 13,7% increase through 2030 and beyond.
- This is still in stark contrast to the GHG reduction required to meet the 1,5°C target of 45% by 2030 compared to 2010, and 43% compared to 2019.
Press statement and additional links to the reports
https://unfccc.int/news/climate-plans-remain-insufficient-more-ambitious-action-needed-now
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION WMO REPORTS
The recent Greenhouse Gas Bulletin states:
- From 2020 to 2021, the increase in CO2 concentration was greater than the average for the last decade and the concentration continues to rise.
- Atmospheric CO2 concentration was 2021 ppm in 415,7, 149% above pre-industrial levels.
- In 2021, the strongest increase in methane concentration in 40 years was observed.
The annual report on the state of the global climate will be presented in Sharm El Sheikh. Some data have already been presented in advance:
- The years 2015-2021 were the 7 warmest years in measure history
- The global mean temperature is more than 1,1°C above the pre-industrial level of 1850-1900.
Press statement and further links
Cover photo: pixource on Pixabay
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